CNY-WXFREAK Posted January 19, 2019 Share Posted January 19, 2019 All hail the FV3 thats all I have to say! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted January 19, 2019 Share Posted January 19, 2019 Gotta say it did good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Charlee4615 Posted January 19, 2019 Share Posted January 19, 2019 Welp, told my friends my final forecast is 18-24. Hopefully I don’t let them down! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
96blizz Posted January 19, 2019 Share Posted January 19, 2019 Roughly 1.2-1.6 QPF over the top of deepening arctic air and temps near 10. Dreams really do come true. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-WXFREAK Posted January 19, 2019 Share Posted January 19, 2019 Nothing like a freah batch of Arxtic Air for a SLP to attack, lol! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
96blizz Posted January 19, 2019 Share Posted January 19, 2019 I never got the obsession with the word “blizzard”. Having lived in NJ and PA I Lived through multiple blizzards. To be honest our good lake effect events like last week look more like a blizzard than they did. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-WXFREAK Posted January 19, 2019 Share Posted January 19, 2019 We have a H850 ket starting to ramp up now from the South right from the GOMEX!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
96blizz Posted January 19, 2019 Share Posted January 19, 2019 1 minute ago, CNY-WXFREAK said: We have a H850 ket starting to ramp up now from the South right from the GOMEX!! It’s not impossible the QPF is underdone for some. Euro runs a few days ago had over 2” in spots. Even the best meso models can miss this with deepest banding and frontogenic forcing. I foresee multiple 30” plus lollis. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-WXFREAK Posted January 19, 2019 Share Posted January 19, 2019 It'll be snowing in KBUF by 8AM, KROC by 930 anf finally Cuse by 11 so afternoon start time is late, IMO, but we'll see! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-WXFREAK Posted January 19, 2019 Share Posted January 19, 2019 Look at KBUF's composite, its gonna ramp up very fast indeed and last for hrs and hrs! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
96blizz Posted January 19, 2019 Share Posted January 19, 2019 Delicious. FV3. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-WXFREAK Posted January 19, 2019 Share Posted January 19, 2019 When all is said and done, the models had the right idea a week ago and were steadfast since! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
96blizz Posted January 19, 2019 Share Posted January 19, 2019 Just now, CNY-WXFREAK said: When all is said and done, the models had the right idea a week ago and were steadfast since! I will have to share my Guidelines for snowstorms if you haven’t read it. I can be the villain in some places because we all know the SE ticks precede the NW climb back to the original thinking. Especially when it comes to the Euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-WXFREAK Posted January 19, 2019 Share Posted January 19, 2019 The FV3 literally took every other model out there to school! Finally after almost giving me a coronary last Wed nights 00Z the NAM is finally in the cone, lol! WE all got NAMMED, lol! The FV3 beat the livin crap out the EURO for sure! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Charlee4615 Posted January 19, 2019 Share Posted January 19, 2019 I have friends who think they are driving back to ithaca tomorrow morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
96blizz Posted January 19, 2019 Share Posted January 19, 2019 3 minutes ago, CNY-WXFREAK said: The FV3 literally took every other model out there to school! Finally after almost giving me a coronary last Wed nights 00Z the NAM is finally in the cone, lol! WE all got NAMMED, lol! The FV3 beat the livin crap out the EURO for sure! If you GIF the last 18 runs of the FV3 it’s amazing. I suspect during the government shutdown NCEP borrowed the old version of the Euro and plopped it in there. Only rational explanation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-WXFREAK Posted January 19, 2019 Share Posted January 19, 2019 25 minutes ago, 96blizz said: If you GIF the last 18 runs of the FV3 it’s amazing. I suspect during the government shutdown NCEP borrowed the old version of the Euro and plopped it in there. Only rational explanation. In all my yrs of tracking, Ive never seen a model catch on the way it did and didn't shuffle at all, just incredible! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-WXFREAK Posted January 19, 2019 Share Posted January 19, 2019 Alls Im sayin is, whoever goes to tonights game in the Dome, bring a comfortable sleeping bag cause your NOT getting home, lol! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-WXFREAK Posted January 19, 2019 Share Posted January 19, 2019 All models have initialized to cold with conditions at the surface and the system ticked NW again so KALB is seriously now in the cross hairs of screwing with IP/SN but I doubt any ZR but it may cut down on totals! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-WXFREAK Posted January 19, 2019 Share Posted January 19, 2019 Plane slid off runway at Ohare Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-WXFREAK Posted January 19, 2019 Share Posted January 19, 2019 its already 33F in KBOS! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-WXFREAK Posted January 19, 2019 Share Posted January 19, 2019 Reflective Composite out of KBUF shows the intense up-glide/lift Isentropic lift ramping up now as the llvl jet gets going out of S-SE and with a E-NE surface flow from an Arctic HP in Ottawa Province pretty much encompassing the whole SLP, WOW, just awesome to see in real time! Most weather terms are made up, lol! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
96blizz Posted January 19, 2019 Share Posted January 19, 2019 13 minutes ago, CNY-WXFREAK said: Alls Im sayin is, whoever goes to tonights game in the Dome, bring a comfortable sleeping bag cause your NOT getting home, lol! For the sake of the workers and nutty fans they’d be wise to proactively postpone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-WXFREAK Posted January 19, 2019 Share Posted January 19, 2019 One last gander at 06Z EUROPEAN 991MB over NYC wooo hooo! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-WXFREAK Posted January 19, 2019 Share Posted January 19, 2019 2 minutes ago, 96blizz said: For the sake of the workers and nutty fans they’d be wise to proactively postpone. Agreed but highly doubtful! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gorizer Posted January 19, 2019 Share Posted January 19, 2019 9 minutes ago, CNY-WXFREAK said: All models have initialized to cold with conditions at the surface and the system ticked NW again so KALB is seriously now in the cross hairs of screwing with IP/SN but I doubt any ZR but it may cut down on totals! Yeah, as I mentioned previously, that over running almost always exceeds modeling around here. I may escape serious damage here in a Delanson, being north and west of Alb, even though I suspect we’ll ping for awhile, but Albany proper may lose several hours of peak snow time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthBuffaloSteve Posted January 19, 2019 Share Posted January 19, 2019 Flakes are already flying here! So much for the Saturday afternoon start time... Good luck to everyone today! . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KPITSnow Posted January 19, 2019 Share Posted January 19, 2019 18 minutes ago, CNY-WXFREAK said: Alls Im sayin is, whoever goes to tonights game in the Dome, bring a comfortable sleeping bag cause your NOT getting home, lol! I’m worried about pitt getting out tonight and getting home. What is your timing on snow starting up there? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gorizer Posted January 19, 2019 Share Posted January 19, 2019 7 minutes ago, 96blizz said: For the sake of the workers and nutty fans they’d be wise to proactively postpone. It’s a 2pm tip, so the impact shouldn’t be that bad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-WXFREAK Posted January 19, 2019 Share Posted January 19, 2019 1 minute ago, Gorizer said: It’s a 2pm tip, so the impact shouldn’t be that bad. I thought it was tonight, my bad, then they should get out just fine! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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