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Upstate/Eastern New York


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1 minute ago, Gorizer said:

So it seems the Euro keeps the taint well south & east of the Capital District.   My head spinning.  But I guess it is for all of us really.  What a yoyo week.

You're in Delanson...you should be safe. If it does taint itll be brief.  10-20 miles south in the HV may lose a few hours of pure snow. At worst.

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2 minutes ago, wolfie09 said:

I'll leave this right here..

Obviously taken with a cup of salt..

Avg ratios of about 20-1..

download.png

I know it looks crazy but it can happen and I'm serious.  Its not like we're 3 days away and this is spitting this out and we call it a clown map but its the day before. My question, is what is the ratio for those specific locations

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3 minutes ago, mattny88 said:

Awesome cnylesfreak Whats the likelihood of this euro verifying behind were 24 hours out now from the first flakes flying from this storm? You also said thats the big ? What were you referring to?

That map doesn't exactly tell you what the ratios actually are unless there's equation which I think there is if I'm not mistaken,  I'll have to find it somewhere.

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5 minutes ago, CNY-WXFREAK said:

I know it looks crazy but it can happen and I'm serious.  Its not like we're 3 days away and this is spitting this out and we call it a clown map but its the day before. My question, is what is the ratio for those specific locations

20:1 sounds high, but even if ave, say 1:17, still talking a 2 footer with major drifting. Blizzard Warning for sure outta KBUF for the south shore ctys...you know they're thinking about it...

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I mean it’s not like the euro doesn’t have support. Short term guidance, both rgem and hrdps, actually show a tick more than the euro as far as totals...so pool them together and I think we can moderate the risk of a bust!

edit: also add fv3 having a tick more once ratios are added. That’s a compelling suite of models now saying 20-26 inches...

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20 minutes ago, mattny88 said:

Cnywxfreak thanks..but i thought the wind flow was suppose to be more of a northerly component to even n-ne..wouldnt that favor sodus bay pts west to Roc vs oswego..bwcause we usually get good lake enchanced  of mpre of a wnw flow...nne flpw for us doesnt have the whole length of the lake to carry moisture i dont believe as opposed to those parts

It doesn't need the whole length of the lake during a synoptic as it just enhances the snow rates and the bands are not visible so you won't even know, lol!  The further North this system gets then the better chance for winds to veer into the NNW then eventually NW so we'll see.

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1 minute ago, mattny88 said:

i am loving this guys....?? when do you think NWS Buffalo will upgrade their amounts seeing that the models have changed or do you think they will still air on the side of being conservative

They already have adjusted them...at least for the Niagara Frontier.. They mention the northward shift of the banding on Meso models and have increased accumulation due to that and dynamics.

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2 minutes ago, wolfie09 said:

It's about whether or not you trust the ratios, has nothing to do with the euro verbatim. 

I mean I think we can confidently say the ratios will be better than 10:1. Yet, even a 10:1 ratio brings 14-17inch amounts throughout the area on the rgem, fv3, hrdps, and almost on the euro. So if those verify we wouldn’t even need to approach 20:1 ratios before a lot of us hit 20 inches.

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I know this was posted earlier but just noticed kbuf mentioned snow ratios..

As the upper wave approaches by the evening Saturday, a curved
coupled upper jet crosses the region concurrent with the arrival of
a fairly deep deformation band and frontogenetical maxima that seem
to be largely co-located with the dendritic growth zone. This should
allow for rapidly increasing snow-to-liquid ratios (from about 20:1
over the northern CWA to about 14:1 over the southern portions of
the CWA) by the evening hours as the best forcing for ascent arrives
into the Southern Tier, then proceeds northward toward the
Buffalo/Rochester area.

 

 

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Just now, wolfie09 said:

I know this was posted earlier but just notice kbuf mentioned snow ratios..

As the upper wave approaches by the evening Saturday, a curved
coupled upper jet crosses the region concurrent with the arrival of
a fairly deep deformation band and frontogenetical maxima that seem
to be largely co-located with the dendritic growth zone. This should
allow for rapidly increasing snow-to-liquid ratios (from about 20:1
over the northern CWA to about 14:1 over the southern portions of
the CWA) by the evening hours as the best forcing for ascent arrives
into the Southern Tier, then proceeds northward toward the
Buffalo/Rochester area. The newly arrived 12z NAM has taken yet
another northward jaunt to largely match with the 00z ECMWF and 06z
Canadian, leaving the GFS a southerly outlying solution. With
further support from the SREF, this has necessitated an uptick in
snow amounts essentially south of the Thruway over western New York
as well as in the North Country. As such, Jefferson County was
upgraded to a winter storm warning.

 

 

Thats us at 20/1" but I just hope its not that grainy stuff and if it is then all bets are off for 2ft totals so we'll see, as I think the temps came up enough, to put us in the sweet spot as far as ratios are concerned.

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