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14 minutes ago, Charlee4615 said:

So I’m throwing it out there...the more I complete my readings for security regulation...the better this gets. It’s painful, but I’ll take one for the team and continue on! The sec reg model:thumbsup: 

If 2 feet verifies I wonder if Cornell will cancel classes Monday. They very rarely cancel classes. 

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Just now, CNY_WX said:

If 2 feet verifies I wonder if Cornell will cancel classes Monday. They very rarely cancel classes. 

Welp we don’t have class til Tuesday. Monday happens to be MLK day...and...my bday! What a great present if these new runs verify, seriously!

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1 minute ago, CNY-WXFREAK said:

This is backwards, you mean the RGEM is on board with FV3!  FV3 hasn't budged for 12 runs now, even more!

Agreed...RGEM is shorter range, but seems to have started and stayed on the northerly range of guidance. Would love to see the NA models score a coup here!

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1 minute ago, Charlee4615 said:

Welp we don’t have class til Tuesday. Monday happens to be MLK day...and...my bday! What a great present if these new runs verify, seriously!

It figures you finally might get enough snow to cancel classes and there’s no classes.  Happy Birthday, btw. Hope you don’t have to drive up Buffalo St.!

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Just now, CNY_WX said:

It figures you finally might get enough snow to cancel classes and there’s no classes.  Happy Birthday, btw. Hope you don’t have to drive up Buffalo St.!

Nope, thank god! This place is a nightmare when it snows. During the storm in November you could hear cars crashing every half an hour or so!

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From WPC diag disc:

Preference: Non 12Z NAM blend

Confidence: Slightly Above Average

 

Model clustering continues to slowly tighten with each cycle, such

that confidence is a bit above average for the track and evolution

of the upper trough and surface low moving from the central to

eastern U.S. this weekend.  However, the 12Z NAM stands out the

greatest from the relatively tight model clustering with its

surface low tracking faster/east compared to the remaining

deterministic and ensemble consensus. This is due to a slightly

flatter low-mid level wave in the NAM. The 12Z NAM also differs

with its 700 mb evolution across the Ohio Valley on Saturday with

a less consolidated wave. While the 12Z NAM is not a significant

outlier, there is enough difference to exclude it from the overall

preference across the central and eastern U.S.

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