Syrmax Posted January 20, 2019 Share Posted January 20, 2019 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phoenixny Posted January 20, 2019 Share Posted January 20, 2019 On 1/20/2019 at 2:10 AM, CNY-WXFREAK said: Theres a definite chance we go to Blizzard warnings if it gets much worse! Expand We don't need that! Busting your balls a bit on that one. I want one damnit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Syrmax Posted January 20, 2019 Share Posted January 20, 2019 On 1/20/2019 at 2:26 AM, phoenixny said: I have been drinking so trust your measurements more than mine. We are close and it's not lake effect. Lmao Expand LOL. The wind has picked up...which could become an issue for accurate measurements...so who knows, you may be closer to correct than me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LakeEffectKing Posted January 20, 2019 Share Posted January 20, 2019 Looks like we have our ramping up of deep ascent. Returns all over NE Ohio/PA/NY are rapidly filling/increasing.... ….Our atmospheric "chimney" is now in full working order! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phoenixny Posted January 20, 2019 Share Posted January 20, 2019 Team Wayne Mahar has not budged on totals. 10 to 16 for us. Kinda a big deal with locals. Teske/Mahar amounts. 10-16 vs 18+ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phoenixny Posted January 20, 2019 Share Posted January 20, 2019 Pittsburgh radar is impressive. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-WXFREAK Posted January 20, 2019 Share Posted January 20, 2019 Flake size has definitely increased in size too and whats to our South is just beautiful! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Syrmax Posted January 20, 2019 Share Posted January 20, 2019 On 1/20/2019 at 2:35 AM, phoenixny said: Team Wayne Mahar has not budged on totals. 10 to 16 for us. Kinda a big deal with locals. Teske/Mahar amounts. 10-16 vs 18+ Expand Clearly, they aren’t onboard with Team Kuchera. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phoenixny Posted January 20, 2019 Share Posted January 20, 2019 No one reporting anything under 1/2 mile at 9pm for NWS stations. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LakeEffectKing Posted January 20, 2019 Share Posted January 20, 2019 On 1/20/2019 at 2:36 AM, CNY-WXFREAK said: Flake size has definitely increased in size too and whats to our South is just beautiful! Expand Well, to our south is nice, but the real McCoy with this system will be the deep moisture in place, as the lower and upper jet dynamics team up for some sick ascent. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ottawa Blizzard Posted January 20, 2019 Share Posted January 20, 2019 On 1/20/2019 at 1:05 AM, Syrmax said: Sounds like the drinking started early there. WTF. Expand I'm pretty sure that's 21 cm. I think Hamilton could easily see 30 cm (1 foot) out of this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phoenixny Posted January 20, 2019 Share Posted January 20, 2019 On 1/20/2019 at 2:39 AM, Syrmax said: Clearly, they aren’t onboard with Team Kuchera. Expand That's a tough business to be in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted January 20, 2019 Share Posted January 20, 2019 All my friends from my hometown in Lancaster, PA are bummed with sleet and rain right now. Part of the reason I moved away from there over a decade ago! Too much rain and downsloping in winter. Much more winter where I live now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Syrmax Posted January 20, 2019 Share Posted January 20, 2019 KALB still at 9F at 9pm and 1.2 mi vis, same as Syracuse and ROC. KPIT screwed at 35F and rain. KJFK 38F and preparing to break out the beach balls and summer drinks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted January 20, 2019 Author Share Posted January 20, 2019 6.6" for 10 PM measurement. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nearpass Posted January 20, 2019 Share Posted January 20, 2019 Well, the precipitation here is so fine, I wouldn't even call it snow. It's almost a mist, and though it's been coming down like this all day, I don't think we've picked up three inches. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thinksnow18 Posted January 20, 2019 Share Posted January 20, 2019 I'm shocked at the KBUF number...im at 6.3" for the day but I am about 5 miles NE of the airport/NWS. Intensity has picked up but the dendrites still small...need that to change soon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vortmax Posted January 20, 2019 Share Posted January 20, 2019 Ramping up here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted January 20, 2019 Share Posted January 20, 2019 Yeah. Super small dendrites, it picks up and then decreased. At some point ya gotta wonder when it starts snowing hard? I don’t see heavy returns filling in on the NW quadrant. The heavy stuff seems to be getting shunted east. About 5” total here in Irondequoit. Only 2.5 in last 5-6 hrs. Give it another 2 hrs, let the wind go more northerly to get the lake involved. I’m more and more thinking my 13” might be money. Hope it’s low. Lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gorizer Posted January 20, 2019 Share Posted January 20, 2019 The models have not handled the low-level temperatures very well this evening and this will likely effect the track of the surface low as it tracks across the northern mid-Atlantic late tonight. Temperatures have been colder than forecast especially in the upper Hudson Valley and southern Adirondacks where readings have dropped down into the single digits to near zero. The latest 00z NAM forecast is a bit farther south with the track of the surface low and is just a bit colder with its thermal profiles than the previous couple of runs, however it would still support a change from snow to sleet as far north as the northern part of the Capital District around daybreak Sunday. We suspect that when all is said and done sleet will mix with the snow just about up to Saratoga Springs Sunday morning which will cut back on snow amounts from that area south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lakeeffectkid383 Posted January 20, 2019 Share Posted January 20, 2019 8.4” here and as TS18 said it’s dumping down pretty good now but flakes are just tiny. Flakes for a while late morning and early afternoon were much larger. Still that sugary snow which may hold us back some even if we manage to get it to come down heavier. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Syrmax Posted January 20, 2019 Share Posted January 20, 2019 So, toying with some back of the envelop maths while we wait for the enhanced lift to do its dirty work...we have been averaging 3/8-1/2" per hr snow since noon around SYR. If 1/2"/hr kept up till end of storm, say noon, that's another 6.5" and bring us to 10" total. Not often that a 10" snowfall would bring massive wailing and gnashing of teeth but it would. So I have to think we end up closer to 16-18" getting under a mesoband for a while. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thinksnow18 Posted January 20, 2019 Share Posted January 20, 2019 On 1/20/2019 at 3:36 AM, WesterlyWx said: 8.4” here and as TS18 said it’s dumping down pretty good now but flakes are just tiny. Flakes for a while late morning and early afternoon were much larger. Still that sugary snow which may hold us back some even if we manage to get it to come down heavier. Expand Definitely heavier returns to our SW heading this way should equate to moderate to at time heavy snow for the next 6 hours or so. But dendrite size will play a BIG role in overall accums. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted January 20, 2019 Share Posted January 20, 2019 Looks like it's picking Up at roc airport Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY_WX Posted January 20, 2019 Share Posted January 20, 2019 Coming down pretty good but what is it with this crappy flake size? If you put 10 of these flakes together you might make a decent dendrite! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vortmax Posted January 20, 2019 Share Posted January 20, 2019 This should happen soon: Adding to the jump in snowfall rates will be much more favorable/efficient snow making microphysics. Usually...the dendritic growth zone is 3-5 kft thick...but overnight this zone of snow production will deepen to nearly 10 kft! This will force our somewhat grainy `columns` and `needles` of snow to change in character to dendrites...which accumulate much faster. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY_WX Posted January 20, 2019 Share Posted January 20, 2019 Looks like it’s snowing nicely on the Cornell campus. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted January 20, 2019 Share Posted January 20, 2019 Hearing that the warm air might not push as far north which will help our SE peeps. Also why NW zones a bit anemic so far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Syrmax Posted January 20, 2019 Share Posted January 20, 2019 On 1/20/2019 at 3:45 AM, CNY_WX said: Coming down pretty good but what is it with this crappy flake size? If you put 10 of these flakes together you might make a decent dendrite! Expand This is always the problem when I start looking at a Kuchera derived snowfall map... it almost becomes a snowfall expectation in the back of my mind, even though I know better. Looks nice but other factors are more important than just temperature profiles, and make or break a storm. A sounding right now would help understand what’s happening. Guessing, low temps leaving the snow growth zone relatively low in the column, lousy UVV or it’s not aligned with a low snow growth zone, or the UVV is just too broad or diffuse. Or some permutation of those factors? I think Nick, OSU, mentioned something this the other day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Syrmax Posted January 20, 2019 Share Posted January 20, 2019 On 1/20/2019 at 3:53 AM, CNY_WX said: Looks like it’s snowing nicely on the Cornell campus. Expand Such a beautiful campus. I golfed there last summer. Great course and setting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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