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3 minutes ago, mattny88 said:

i think for giggles and as a friendly contest...we should all create our own snow maps and see who ends up closest to the tallies that will come from this storm

I'm thinking 11 inches by me in south cheektowaga(william and union) based on nothing scientific at all since I'm very new to all of this.

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hate to be the bear of bad news...just saw trusted reliable source wsyr new snowfall map...not looking promising for the western edge..even me in the city of oswego there now calling for 5-10inch range..down from the 10-18 inch snow map they put out early this morning..what gives? what did they see in the latest models to suggest pushing the slug of greater accumulations and shifting the entire map like 30 miles east???? cnylesfreak? or wolfie or anybody know the reason and on board with their thinking? let me know guys

wsyr9.jpg

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1 minute ago, mattny88 said:

hate to be the bear of bad news...just saw trusted reliable source wsyr new snowfall map...not looking promising for the western edge..even me in the city of oswego there now calling for 5-10inch range..down from the 10-18 inch snow map they put out early this morning..what gives? what did they see in the latest models to suggest pushing the slug of greater accumulations and shifting the entire map like 30 miles east???? cnylesfreak? or wolfie or anybody know the reason and on board with their thinking? let me know guys

wsyr9.jpg

Maybe they used last nights NAM for this map?  Looks like a 5 year old did that... 

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2 minutes ago, mattny88 said:

hate to be the bear of bad news...just saw trusted reliable source wsyr new snowfall map...not looking promising for the western edge..even me in the city of oswego there now calling for 5-10inch range..down from the 10-18 inch snow map they put out early this morning..what gives? what did they see in the latest models to suggest pushing the slug of greater accumulations and shifting the entire map like 30 miles east???? cnylesfreak? or wolfie or anybody know the reason and on board with their thinking? let me know guys

wsyr9.jpg

That map has ROC at 5-10"...C'mon now. :lmao:

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Just now, mattny88 said:

i wish they did..this was used as of their noon air broadcasting

I've noticed this in many different places. Local tv maps tend to focus on their immediate area and dont seem to put much thinking into the areas on their fringes. Take it FWIW.

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33 minutes ago, mattny88 said:

hate to be the bear of bad news...just saw trusted reliable source wsyr new snowfall map...not looking promising for the western edge..even me in the city of oswego there now calling for 5-10inch range..down from the 10-18 inch snow map they put out early this morning..what gives? what did they see in the latest models to suggest pushing the slug of greater accumulations and shifting the entire map like 30 miles east???? cnylesfreak? or wolfie or anybody know the reason and on board with their thinking? let me know guys

wsyr9.jpg

They run their in house model and that map makes absolutely no sense what so ever and since Dave Eichorn left, that place went to hell in a hand basket and quick as they are not the most trusted weather Source for CNY anymore. This thread provides better analysis than they do.  Where's the LE along the South Shore from Wayne westward?  I also think this starts in the morning hours versus the afternoon like most channels have so....

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This feels like other events where the Buffalo metro up to Niagara County got fringed. I suspect we’ll get some 10:1 accumulation early, then see small dendrites as the temp drops, and then we’ll be on the wrong side of the cutoff. So I’m thinking 6-8” in the metro, maybe not even meeting warning criteria.

Also, while the SW/WSW flow looks good this week for lake effect, I’m thinking we may have too little moisture to work with. In a week, we could see a freeze-up, after a small accumulation of lake snow.

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