Upstate/Eastern New York

[CNY-WXFREAK]

Well if you go by this run you guys mix in the Capital district but I ain't going there yet but man, thats a lot of warm air being drawn up from the Gulf!

[Gorizer]

1 minute ago, CNY-WXFREAK said:

Well if you go by this run you guys mix in the Capital district but I ain't going there yet but man, thats a lot of warm air being drawn up from the Gulf!

Wow.  I think the RGEM is all alone with that much of a warm fetch.  Although experience here is that the warm over running most time exceeds what is modeled.

[CNY-WXFREAK]

1 minute ago, Gorizer said:

Wow.  I think the RGEM is all alone with that much of a warm fetch.  Although experience here is that the warm over running most time exceeds what is modeled.

Yeah it is!

[CNY-WXFREAK]

From DR. Maue site, a blog post!

That has to be the Euro for sure so there you go Gorizer so not far off from the Rgem in fact, so something to watch as we get closer.

[CNY-WXFREAK]

[CNY-WXFREAK]

[CNY-WXFREAK]

This 5,000 foot temperature map highlights the aforementioned airmass clash. Temps aloft just off NYC will be around 50 degrees, while the air above Buffalo will sit at around -10. This extreme temperature gradient will provide the basis for strong dynamic lifting, while the tropical moisture enables heavy precipitation and the Arctic cold lets much of that precipitation fall as snow away from the coast. Map via weather.us.

[CNY-WXFREAK]

Good read:

A more complete picture of the available dynamics is visible with the Synoptic Composite map. The shading is a measure of both heat and moisture. Red/orange shadings represent warm and humid air while blues and purples are colder and drier. Already we can see the thermal clash discussed above. However we can also see the surface pressure gradient by looking at the white isobars (lines of equal pressure). Note the tightly packed isobars across the Northeast as our storm system runs into an area of very strong Arctic high pressure. Additionally, we can look to the black lines and arrows for clues about the upper level setup. The black lines represent equal 500mb heights, while the arrows are vectors for 300mb winds. The strong trough axis is clearly visible in the height field just west of the surface storm, and a strong jet streak is also noted extending from the Mid Atlantic up into New England. Map via weather.us.

[BuffaloWeather]

GFS looks nice, basically 1" of QPF for the entire forum then lake enhancement. 

[OSUmetstud]

Appears that BUF and a few on the forum got NAMMed last night. 

[OSUmetstud]

13 minutes ago, CNY-WXFREAK said:

From DR. Maue site, a blog post!

That has to be the Euro for sure so there you go Gorizer so not far off from the Rgem in fact, so something to watch as we get closer.

And you'd think he could build his algorithm to show IP. Those maps annoyingly basically only show snow or zr. 

[wolfie09]

[OSUmetstud]

"Everyone knows you never go full NAM" 

[Stash]

20 minutes ago, CNY-WXFREAK said:

Well if you go by this run you guys mix in the Capital district but I ain't going there yet but man, thats a lot of warm air being drawn up from the Gulf!

If the low crosses the lower Hudson valley as depicted in the rgem, then we will sniff sleet for a little bit. I usually use the rgem as my last bastion of hope during SNE snowstorms where I'm on the outside looking in. Usually quite amped. If other guidance follows suit then will certainly be worth considering. 

[CNY-WXFREAK]

GFS over KPHL, uh oh, lol, moved NW as well and now right in line with the rest.

[OSUmetstud]

In all seriousness, that was a pretty abrupt amplification of the southern stream on the 12z models. You can see snow developing much further into the midwest. 

 

 

[CNY-WXFREAK]

GFS  up to 1.25-1.5" now!

[Gorizer]

22 minutes ago, CNY-WXFREAK said:

From DR. Maue site, a blog post!

That has to be the Euro for sure so there you go Gorizer so not far off from the Rgem in fact, so something to watch as we get closer.

Keeps Albany airport in the clear, as it's in the northern part of the county, but perilously close.   

[wolfie09]

This looks a lot better then it did a couple days agoo..

[Gorizer]

13 minutes ago, Stash said:

If the low crosses the lower Hudson valley as depicted in the rgem, then we will sniff sleet for a little bit. I usually use the rgem as my last bastion of hope during SNE snowstorms where I'm on the outside looking in. Usually quite amped. If other guidance follows suit then will certainly be worth considering. 

Thanks Mike.  We'll see if the GFS and Euro make any shifts then I'll make the call.

[vortmax]

All sorts of goodies in here:

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
...Major Winter Storm Moves Into the Region...

Warm advection off the deck starts fairly early on Saturday as the
model consensus favors modest ascent in the 285-295K layer with
sufficient moisture transport in the layer and condensation pressure
deficits falling off toward 10 mb near to or shortly after 10 AM
across western New York. This should allow for light snow to develop
progressively from west to east across the area. By late afternoon,
moisture transport in the layer rapidly increases from the
southwest, centered decidedly over the Southern Tier on the model
consensus. This should allow for some ramp up in snow intensity over
the Southern Tier by the afternoon hours.

As the upper wave approaches by the evening Saturday, a curved
coupled upper jet crosses the region concurrent with the arrival of
a fairly deep deformation band and frontogenetical maxima that seem
to be largely co-located with the dendritic growth zone. This should
allow for rapidly increasing snow-to-liquid ratios (from about 20:1
over the northern CWA to about 14:1 over the southern portions of
the CWA) by the evening hours as the best forcing for ascent arrives
into the Southern Tier, then proceeds northward toward the
Buffalo/Rochester area. The newly arrived 12z NAM has taken yet
another northward jaunt to largely match with the 00z ECMWF and 06z
Canadian, leaving the GFS a southerly outlying solution. With
further support from the SREF, this has necessitated an uptick in
snow amounts essentially south of the Thruway over western New York
as well as in the North Country. As such, Jefferson County was
upgraded to a winter storm warning.

As the deformation band lifts northward, northeasterly flow develops
over Lake Ontario. This combined with a fairly stable boundary layer
located largely in the dendritic growth zone, as well as confluent
northeast flow in the boundary layer over the lake should allow for
the development of a lake effect band underneath the arriving large
scale snowfall. This will allow for local enhancement in Monroe,
Orleans, and Niagara Counties, which has necessitated an uptick in
snow amounts there, as well. Additionally, a stiff northeast wind
off the lake that will become increasingly gusty through the night
will allow for blowing snow to develop in this area first.

The deformation band starts to pivot from northwest to southeast
later in the night as the 850-800 mb low passes across northern
Pennsylvania. This will sag the western portions of the band quickly
southward, while the eastern portions of the band will linger near
Lewis and Oswego Counties a bit longer. As this occurs, boundary
layer flow trends more northerly into Sunday. This will allow for
the single band of lake effect snow off Lake Ontario to transition
into multi-band along the entire southern shore of the lake.
Likewise, as the 850-800 mb low departs, cold air advection off the
deck increases the mixing depth and wind gusts increase as well.
This will allow for blowing snow to start to develop across the
area.

All in all, a very dry snow seems likely for the northern 2/3 of the
forecast area. This will result in far greater accumulations than
would normally be seen with the amount of QPF the models are putting
out. Further, mechanical forcing trends suggest some northward
deviation in the best forcing from the 00z guidance. With
microphysical concerns playing a large role and a quite favorable
synoptic pattern at play, explicit model QPF will likely be a less
important factor in the forecast than would normally be the case.
This is especially true in the northeast lake effect band areas in
Niagara, Orleans, and Monroe Counties. That said, 7-12 inches in
Jefferson County will quickly transition into a swath of a foot or
more from the Tug Hill across the southern Lake Ontario shore with
an additional swath across the Southern Tier and northern Finger
Lakes. The lowest totals outside the St. Lawrence Valley in the area
will likely be in the immediate Buffalo area, with roughly 8-12
inches expected at this time.

[wolfie09]

Could make a run at 20..A few days back it was mid single digits for highs!

Maybe this could help with flake structure..

[Thinksnow18]

Appears the 5 to 10 the NWS went with is going to verify low.

[Thinksnow18]

And just as I post that they went up to 8 to 12!!! Still sticking with a foot.

[CNY-WXFREAK]

I think their too low still but a conservative  estimate for sure!

[Syrmax]

27 minutes ago, OSUmetstud said:

"Everyone knows you never go full NAM" 

I got NAM'd! Rookie mistake.  But right now it's the only model NOT being tossed elsewhere.

[Charlee4615]

Dear lord please let HRDPS verify for once! Loaded!

[wolfie09]

Hi rez canadian also makes it up to SW PA..

[vortmax]

Just now, wolfie09 said:

Hi rez canadian also makes it up to SW PA..

This path would really bust the EC totals. Would like to see this unique track verify! Hows the timing look, still in and out quite or slowing down with a more amped solution?

[CNY-WXFREAK]