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mississaugasnow

mississaugasnow

Posted
Posted
4 minutes ago, CNY-WXFREAK said:

Alls I know is, someone up in the Tug this weekend is getting feet of snow with a band extending some 50-60 miles, out over the water, its gonna be sick!  I bet driving North this weekend up 81 is gonna be a sight as you get closer and closer to the billowing clouds ( almost pillow like) ahead as they look like a mid-summers thunderstorm only to find blinding blizzard conditions with rates approaching 2-3 and sometimes 4"/hr, with 25-35mph winds blowing it and drifting it all over the place!  This event as all parameters, for a serious blockbuster event!

If you dont mind me asking, whats the fetch off Georgian Bay looking like? I'm going to be up in the Muskoka/Parry Sound area this weekend and WSW wind normally crushes them up there as well (even when Georgian Bay is slightly covered with ice) 

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wolfie09

wolfie09

Posted
Posted 
...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 7 AM TO 6 PM EST
WEDNESDAY...

* WHAT...Snow, sleet and freezing rain expected. Total snow
  accumulations of up to 2 inches and ice accumulations of up to
  one tenth of an inch expected. Winds gusting as high as 35 mph.

* WHERE...The Eastern Lake Ontario Region.

* WHEN...From 7 AM to 6 PM EST Wednesday.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Plan on slippery road conditions. The
  hazardous conditions could impact the morning or evening
  commute.
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wolfie09

wolfie09

Posted
Posted 
.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
...Significant lake snows possible during this period...

As we open this period Thursday morning...a wavy frontal boundary
over eastern New York will be in the process of slowly pushing east
across New England. This front will briefly be held up by a wave
that will move up the New Jersey coast. Have thus delayed the
lowering of pops for the Eastern Lake Ontario region where steady
snow will persist through the morning within an area of strong
frontogentic lift. As one moves back to the west...there will be a
rather sharp cut off to the steady snow. The onset of deep
subsidence under a building sfc based ridge will only allow for
scattered light snow showers in the morning...then nothing more
than some flurries for the afternoon. Snow accumulations on
Wednesday will range from less than an inch from the Finger Lakes
west...to a few inches over the North Country. Otherwise Thursday
will be a colder day...by roughly 10 degrees...as H85 temps
tumbling to -12c will only support max within a few degrees of
freezing. So much for our warm up! We will likely not get back to
freezing until we get well into February. More on that statement in
the Long Term discussion below.

A pair of strong disturbances rotating through the base of an
amplifying longwave trough over the Upper Great Lakes Thursday night
will not only help to deepen our cold air in the wake of the
aforementioned cold front...but it will also drive a reinforcing
arctic cold front southwards across Ontario. While this front is
forecast to eventually stall over or just north of our forecast
area...it will set the stage for what could be one of the most
impressive lake effect events of the season thus far. In any case...
synoptic scale subsidence found well ahead of this boundary will
support uneventful weather for most of our forecast area Thursday
night. The exception will be east of both lakes where a 260-280 flow
of -14c H85 air will generate some lake snow. Since the steering
flow will be moving around a bit and the capping inversion will
average 7k ft...significant accumulations are not expected during
this 12 hour period. Even so...pops will be at categorical levels.
The only caveat is that guidance is suggesting a subtle lifting of
the cap by a few thousand feet during the course of the night...so
the activity should become a little more impressive by daybreak.
This will be the beginning of what COULD be a huge event east of
Lake Ontario.

On Friday...moderate to heavy lake snow will become established east
of Lake Ontario with less impressive snows found east of Lake Erie.
There will be three main reasons for the difference. The first will
be the aforementioned arctic cold front that will stall in the
vicinity of Lake Ontario. The front will serve as an additional
focusing mechanism for lake snows that should already be in place
over the center of the lake. Most guidance packages are already
locking onto the idea that there will be an area of strong low level
convergence in this area...both due to the thermal circulation over
the lake and also from the synoptic scale forcing from the stalled
boundary. The second reason for the more impressive snows off this
lake will be the multi-lake connection. This is even picked up by
the more course global models such as the ECMWF. Do not under-
estimate the significance of this upstream priming! Finally...the
plume will be nearly parallel to the axis of the lake...maximizing
residency time for more efficient heat and moisture transport off
the lake surface. That all being said...this band will have the
potential to produce multiple feet of snow with hourly rates
exceeding 2 inches.

As for the Lake Erie based snows...the westerly flow will be more
orthogonal to the lake...so multiple bands will be more likely than
a single plume. While there will be a little upstream priming from
the southern part of Lake Michigan...this is not expected to be a
significant contributor. There will however be added orographic lift
from the Chautauqua ridge. This should also help to broaden the area
of snow immediately downstream. While significant accumulations will
be possible off Lake Erie...rates and totals should pale in
comparison to those of its sister lake to the north. Stay tuned.

Otherwise...it will be a colder day across the region with
temperatures generally in the teens being accompanied by some
flurries and nuisance light snow showers. Pops will be reduced from
continuity in areas outside of the above detailed lake snow areas.

For Friday night...the synoptic environment will be nearly identical
to the previous 12 hours with a stalled arctic boundary in the
vicinity of Lake Ontario. Meanwhile...while it will be a few degrees
colder aloft...the general thermal profile will be very similar as
well. The colder air will offer the potential for steeper lapse
rates and higher capping inversion...so if anything...lake snows
could be more organized/impressive. Mins Friday night will generally
be in the single digits.

Arctic high pressure over Quebec Saturday morning is forecast to
push off to the east during the course of the day. This will combine
with a digging upstream shortwave to back the steering flow more to
the southwest. This in turn will allow the arctic front that had
been stalled over Lake Ontario to push back to the north...removing
the focusing mechanism for strong low level convergence over Lake
Ontario and likely ending the moderate to heavy lake snow. The
backing of the winds will also break the enhancing upstream
connections. The result should be a weakening of the lake snows
while they push to the north within the backing flow. Elsewhere...
general subsidence should keep mainly fair weather in place.

The backing flow will continue through Saturday night while the
limiting inversion will lower. This should further weaken/diminish
the scope of the lake snows.
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Thinksnow18

Thinksnow18

Posted
Posted
2 minutes ago, wolfie09 said: 

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
...Significant lake snows possible during this period...

As we open this period Thursday morning...a wavy frontal boundary
over eastern New York will be in the process of slowly pushing east
across New England. This front will briefly be held up by a wave
that will move up the New Jersey coast. Have thus delayed the
lowering of pops for the Eastern Lake Ontario region where steady
snow will persist through the morning within an area of strong
frontogentic lift. As one moves back to the west...there will be a
rather sharp cut off to the steady snow. The onset of deep
subsidence under a building sfc based ridge will only allow for
scattered light snow showers in the morning...then nothing more
than some flurries for the afternoon. Snow accumulations on
Wednesday will range from less than an inch from the Finger Lakes
west...to a few inches over the North Country. Otherwise Thursday
will be a colder day...by roughly 10 degrees...as H85 temps
tumbling to -12c will only support max within a few degrees of
freezing. So much for our warm up! We will likely not get back to
freezing until we get well into February. More on that statement in
the Long Term discussion below.

A pair of strong disturbances rotating through the base of an
amplifying longwave trough over the Upper Great Lakes Thursday night
will not only help to deepen our cold air in the wake of the
aforementioned cold front...but it will also drive a reinforcing
arctic cold front southwards across Ontario. While this front is
forecast to eventually stall over or just north of our forecast
area...it will set the stage for what could be one of the most
impressive lake effect events of the season thus far. In any case...
synoptic scale subsidence found well ahead of this boundary will
support uneventful weather for most of our forecast area Thursday
night. The exception will be east of both lakes where a 260-280 flow
of -14c H85 air will generate some lake snow. Since the steering
flow will be moving around a bit and the capping inversion will
average 7k ft...significant accumulations are not expected during
this 12 hour period. Even so...pops will be at categorical levels.
The only caveat is that guidance is suggesting a subtle lifting of
the cap by a few thousand feet during the course of the night...so
the activity should become a little more impressive by daybreak.
This will be the beginning of what COULD be a huge event east of
Lake Ontario.

On Friday...moderate to heavy lake snow will become established east
of Lake Ontario with less impressive snows found east of Lake Erie.
There will be three main reasons for the difference. The first will
be the aforementioned arctic cold front that will stall in the
vicinity of Lake Ontario. The front will serve as an additional
focusing mechanism for lake snows that should already be in place
over the center of the lake. Most guidance packages are already
locking onto the idea that there will be an area of strong low level
convergence in this area...both due to the thermal circulation over
the lake and also from the synoptic scale forcing from the stalled
boundary. The second reason for the more impressive snows off this
lake will be the multi-lake connection. This is even picked up by
the more course global models such as the ECMWF. Do not under-
estimate the significance of this upstream priming! Finally...the
plume will be nearly parallel to the axis of the lake...maximizing
residency time for more efficient heat and moisture transport off
the lake surface. That all being said...this band will have the
potential to produce multiple feet of snow with hourly rates
exceeding 2 inches.

As for the Lake Erie based snows...the westerly flow will be more
orthogonal to the lake...so multiple bands will be more likely than
a single plume. While there will be a little upstream priming from
the southern part of Lake Michigan...this is not expected to be a
significant contributor. There will however be added orographic lift
from the Chautauqua ridge. This should also help to broaden the area
of snow immediately downstream. While significant accumulations will
be possible off Lake Erie...rates and totals should pale in
comparison to those of its sister lake to the north. Stay tuned.

Otherwise...it will be a colder day across the region with
temperatures generally in the teens being accompanied by some
flurries and nuisance light snow showers. Pops will be reduced from
continuity in areas outside of the above detailed lake snow areas.

For Friday night...the synoptic environment will be nearly identical
to the previous 12 hours with a stalled arctic boundary in the
vicinity of Lake Ontario. Meanwhile...while it will be a few degrees
colder aloft...the general thermal profile will be very similar as
well. The colder air will offer the potential for steeper lapse
rates and higher capping inversion...so if anything...lake snows
could be more organized/impressive. Mins Friday night will generally
be in the single digits.

Arctic high pressure over Quebec Saturday morning is forecast to
push off to the east during the course of the day. This will combine
with a digging upstream shortwave to back the steering flow more to
the southwest. This in turn will allow the arctic front that had
been stalled over Lake Ontario to push back to the north...removing
the focusing mechanism for strong low level convergence over Lake
Ontario and likely ending the moderate to heavy lake snow. The
backing of the winds will also break the enhancing upstream
connections. The result should be a weakening of the lake snows
while they push to the north within the backing flow. Elsewhere...
general subsidence should keep mainly fair weather in place.

The backing flow will continue through Saturday night while the
limiting inversion will lower. This should further weaken/diminish
the scope of the lake snows.

In other words the metro gets the shaft!!!

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wolfie09

wolfie09

Posted
Posted

Excellent write up today...

  

Also...be wary of using simple NAO and PNA indices as a guide. These
indices are often calculated at specific points...so if the
hemispheric feature does not coincide with the point...the values
shown could be very misleading. It is suggested to use the actual
500 700mb forecast charts to see where the features are placed. This
is certainly the case during this period as the west coast ridge is
some 500 miles too far west to be picked up by the PNA indice...the
Greenland block is oscillating between being oriented north-south
and east-west so the NAO indice is somewhat misleading. Be careful
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CNY-WXFREAK

CNY-WXFREAK

Posted
Posted
25 minutes ago, mississaugasnow said:

If you dont mind me asking, whats the fetch off Georgian Bay looking like? I'm going to be up in the Muskoka/Parry Sound area this weekend and WSW wind normally crushes them up there as well (even when Georgian Bay is slightly covered with ice) 

Its looking like GB will be getting seeded by both Lk Superior and Huron for quite some time it looks like so I'd imagine its a pretty good bet that someone sees a heafty amount!

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CNY-WXFREAK

CNY-WXFREAK

Posted
Posted 
Confidence is off the charts that temperatures will average below
normal during this period...as a highly amplified pattern will be in
place across the continent. A very staunch ridge centered off the
west coast will define a +PNA pattern that will be coupled with a
persistent ridge over Greenland...a CLASSIC cold weather pattern.
The pair of ridges will lock an expansive closed low over eastern
Canada...part of which will include the polar vortex. This notorious
feature is forecast to push at least 500 miles further south than
usual...possibly settling between Lake Superior and James Bay. The
coldest air in the northern hemisphere will not only be on this side
of the pole...but because of this pattern it could conceivably be on
THIS side of James Bay! This pool of glacial air will also be
supported by a persistent cross polar flow...which will not only
prevent the airmass from modifying...but will also serve to keep it
`charged`.
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vortmax

vortmax

Posted
Posted
53 minutes ago, wolfie09 said:

Excellent write up today...

  


Also...be wary of using simple NAO and PNA indices as a guide. These
indices are often calculated at specific points...so if the
hemispheric feature does not coincide with the point...the values
shown could be very misleading. It is suggested to use the actual
500 700mb forecast charts to see where the features are placed. This
is certainly the case during this period as the west coast ridge is
some 500 miles too far west to be picked up by the PNA indice...the
Greenland block is oscillating between being oriented north-south
and east-west so the NAO indice is somewhat misleading. Be careful

Lol, someone from the NWS is lurking on this forum!

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Syrmax

Syrmax

Posted
Posted

Per 3K NAM soundings...KSYR gets about 20 hours above freezing but max is 37-38F for about 6 hours or so with rain. Then a 4-6 hour window for postfrontal snow (~3").  Not ideal but won't be a large scale meltdown especially with a higher density snow depth in place.  Probably cut snow depth by a 1/4 - 1/3rd at worst.  Then we glacier. 

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ayuud11

ayuud11

Posted
Posted
1 hour ago, Thinksnow18 said:

It's been years for the northern metro and suburbs...southern buffalo and southtowns have killed it. 

Sadly the last major LES the city proper had was back in October 06, sure we’ve had couple 6-12” events after but that’s the last time we had a big one. We missed out on both ‘10 and ‘14.

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