Buffalo Bumble Posted January 22, 2019 Share Posted January 22, 2019 I actually like what I'm seeing over the next couple weeks. Yeah, a bit of rain this week sucks, but it's pretty brief warm up, less than 24 hours really. Potential lake effect event end of this week into the weekend, with potential for a pretty vigorous northern stream system to bring another round of general snow across upstate. After that....I'm willing to take some chances with brief warm ups ahead of storms to keep the pattern active. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted January 22, 2019 Author Share Posted January 22, 2019 I thought pattern looked great personally. Looks very active. Especially the northern jet. I’ll pass on the extreme cold though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted January 22, 2019 Share Posted January 22, 2019 3 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said: I thought pattern looked great personally. Looks very active. Especially the northern jet. I’ll pass on the extreme cold though. Its a great synoptic storm pattern for the interior i think. Lots of cold and a displayed but deformed pv. If you blocked everything up on the atlantic side youd probably have a storm track too far east for most of the forum. There is the occasional risk of warm ups and rain of course. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Syrmax Posted January 22, 2019 Share Posted January 22, 2019 1 minute ago, OSUmetstud said: Its a great synoptic storm pattern for the interior i think. Lots of cold and a displayed but deformed pv. If you blocked everything up on the atlantic side youd probably have a storm track too far east for most of the forum. There is the occasional risk of warm ups and rain of course. We were all moaning and groaning about the modeled pattern 10 days ago, and how arid it looked...until this past weekend's storm showed up on modelling. Looks like a parade of clipper type systems as it stands now over next 10 days. Which wouldn't be bad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted January 22, 2019 Share Posted January 22, 2019 Just now, Syrmax said: We were all moaning and groaning about the modeled pattern 10 days ago, and how arid it looked...until this past weekend's storm showed up on modelling. Looks like a parade of clipper type systems as it stands now over next 10 days. Which wouldn't be bad. Yep agreed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted January 22, 2019 Share Posted January 22, 2019 Its really difficult to get a strong -epo and -nao at the same time. You tend to get one or the other. The 2013-2014 winter was mainly -epo driven. In fact its been extremely difficult to get sustained -nao blocking since about 2011. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted January 22, 2019 Author Share Posted January 22, 2019 24 minutes ago, SouthBuffaloSteve said: Mike is pretty locked in on the idea of the metro getting in on some good lake effect for at least a portion of the weekend! . Looks strong too right over central/southern erie county. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buffalo Bumble Posted January 22, 2019 Share Posted January 22, 2019 Looks like the frigid last 24-36 hours added quite a bit of ice to Lake Erie, as you would expect... https://iceboom.nypa.gov/ This webcam on Long Point was all open water yesterday, totally iced in today! https://stephen6605.wixsite.com/corkepoint/live-stream I think any lake effect the rest of this winter off Erie will be battling ice cover... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 22, 2019 Share Posted January 22, 2019 Euro has been pretty consistent with this follow up wave, dumping few/several inches of snow after the front moves through.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-WXFREAK Posted January 22, 2019 Share Posted January 22, 2019 38 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said: I thought pattern looked great personally. Looks very active. Especially the northern jet. I’ll pass on the extreme cold though. It is bro, its a great pattern and I don't know what some are looking at? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-WXFREAK Posted January 22, 2019 Share Posted January 22, 2019 4 minutes ago, wolfie09 said: Euro has been pretty consistent with this follow up wave, dumping few/several inches of snow after the front moves through.. I hate post frontal action so we'll see if it pans out as most other guidance really isn't on board and being only 2 days out, you'd think the models would be form this far out, No? Anyway, I hope we see something this week down here but its looking bleak, but thats ok as the Tug hasn't seen much action of note, so it would be nice to see then get seriously clobbered! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-WXFREAK Posted January 22, 2019 Share Posted January 22, 2019 Most, if not all of this is rn, except perhaps 3/10 of it as a mix, so this sucks but it'll create a nice cement block, for a base! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-WXFREAK Posted January 22, 2019 Share Posted January 22, 2019 I wish I was KROC this week as they see the least amount of rain out of all of us, lol and they got the most snow from the event so nice one KROC! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mississaugasnow Posted January 22, 2019 Share Posted January 22, 2019 20 minutes ago, CNY-WXFREAK said: It is bro, its a great pattern and I don't know what some are looking at? I guess all depends on what you want. I'm more in the winter activity (outdoor hockey, snowmobiling) and I like sustained snow cover. Which is tough to get this far south, but to have a rainstorm only 3 days after the GTA first snowstorm is pretty bad haha. This winter has been a major joke, mostly due to the hype it received all fall about big storms and sustained cold. Kind of like following a sports team that gets hyped up but falls flat, stings a bit more compared to a team you knew wasn't going to do much. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-WXFREAK Posted January 22, 2019 Share Posted January 22, 2019 Quite a dependency wrt temp profiles for the week between the Euro and the NAM and I'm more inclined to go with the Nam for temps as it was the first OI believe to show that the cold wasn't going to budge with the last event so we'll see what happens. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-WXFREAK Posted January 22, 2019 Share Posted January 22, 2019 Just now, mississaugasnow said: I guess all depends on what you want. I'm more in the winter activity (outdoor hockey, snowmobiling) and I like sustained snow cover. Which is tough to get this far south, but to have a rainstorm only 3 days after the GTA first snowstorm is pretty bad haha. This winter has been a major joke, mostly due to the hype it received all fall about big storms and sustained cold. Kind of like following a sports team that gets hyped up but falls flat, stings a bit more compared to a team you knew wasn't going to do much. Yeah I agree but I think we need to let this upcoming pattern percolate a bit before saying it didn't deliver, thats all Im really saying. I think the SSW ( which did propagate into the troposphere but theres a lag so...) and the indices look promising for once so we'll see what happens if this Winter doesn't deliver, there's always next yr and thats another reason long range forecasts are a complete and utter joke! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 22, 2019 Share Posted January 22, 2019 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted January 22, 2019 Share Posted January 22, 2019 Two ski vacations coming up. This weekend Snow Ridge in the Tug and then February 7-10 at Killington. So like Delta, I’ll be watching and getting nervous. The pattern sure looks different from what we were anticipating just one week ago! That being said, I’ll take it over the doldrums we experienced for the first half. I can only recal one anafrontal (?) storm that really planned out well for Rochester. I’m not putting much faith in anything like that. The LES over the Tug late week looks like candy! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mississaugasnow Posted January 22, 2019 Share Posted January 22, 2019 2 minutes ago, CNY-WXFREAK said: Yeah I agree but I think we need to let this upcoming pattern percolate a bit before saying it didn't deliver, thats all Im really saying. I think the SSW ( which did propagate into the troposphere but theres a lag so...) and the indices look promising for once so we'll see what happens if this Winter doesn't deliver, there's always next yr and thats another reason long range forecasts are a complete and utter joke! Yep, I also enjoy all 4 seasons with summer and winter the most. So I'm personally about 3-4 weeks away from starting to shake winter off and start dreaming of 80s-90s and humidity. The last few springs have been awful so if winter isn't good I hope for a dry warm spring Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted January 22, 2019 Author Share Posted January 22, 2019 1 minute ago, mississaugasnow said: Yep, I also enjoy all 4 seasons with summer and winter the most. So I'm personally about 3-4 weeks away from starting to shake winter off and start dreaming of 80s-90s and humidity. The last few springs have been awful so if winter isn't good I hope for a dry warm spring I'm identical to you. Love Summer and Winter, hate Spring, enjoy Fall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 22, 2019 Share Posted January 22, 2019 Just a hair to late on the euro, not that it matters much 8 days out.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-WXFREAK Posted January 22, 2019 Share Posted January 22, 2019 It appears to me that the Euro is way off wrt it temps as they as way too warm in some areas of the Mid-West and OH valley, the airmass which is coming our way the next 24 hrs or so. I can see being off by a couple degrees but in some areas its off by 7-8F!! i'm going with the NAM as far as temps go as the Nam has more mixing as opposed to the Euro which has quite a bit of rn bout ,75" worth. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-WXFREAK Posted January 22, 2019 Share Posted January 22, 2019 URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service Buffalo NY 110 PM EST Tue Jan 22 2019 NYZ006>008-230215- /O.NEW.KBUF.WW.Y.0007.190123T1200Z-190123T2300Z/ Oswego-Jefferson-Lewis- Including the cities of Oswego, Watertown, and Lowville 110 PM EST Tue Jan 22 2019 ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 7 AM TO 6 PM EST WEDNESDAY... * WHAT...Snow, sleet and freezing rain expected. Total snow accumulations of up to 2 inches and ice accumulations of up to one tenth of an inch expected. Winds gusting as high as 35 mph. * WHERE...The Eastern Lake Ontario Region. * WHEN...From 7 AM to 6 PM EST Wednesday. * ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Plan on slippery road conditions. The hazardous conditions could impact the morning or evening commute. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... Periods of snow, sleet or freezing rain will result in slippery roads and limited visibilities. Slow down and use caution while driving. Submit snow and ice reports through our website or social media. A significant lake effect snow event is looking more possible from later Thursday night into Saturday. If guidance remains consistent... several feet of snow could accumulate in the vicinity of the Tug Hill. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-WXFREAK Posted January 22, 2019 Share Posted January 22, 2019 I think Matt gets affected worse than Carol this time around so we'll see! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-WXFREAK Posted January 22, 2019 Share Posted January 22, 2019 If you have a Ski trip this weekend up in the Tug then I'd be jumping for joy as its gonna be a winters paradise up there this weekend starting tomorrow actually cause I don't see anywhere near as much rn as the Euro is seeing . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-WXFREAK Posted January 22, 2019 Share Posted January 22, 2019 This weekends event will be the first chase worthy event of the season I think for the Tug so get ready cause its coming Matt! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-WXFREAK Posted January 22, 2019 Share Posted January 22, 2019 It goes above freezing on the Nam at the surface for 9hrs at the most, and on the Euro, its 27hrs, lol, whats a day difference, lol! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 22, 2019 Share Posted January 22, 2019 Depends whats your global of choice lol Euro looks mainly wsw, more of a 250-260 vector, right in carol wheelhouse.. Ukmet much more westerly, like a 270 vector.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted January 22, 2019 Author Share Posted January 22, 2019 2 minutes ago, wolfie09 said: Depends whats your global of choice lol Euro looks mainly wsw, more of a 250-260 vector, right in carol wheelhouse.. Ukmet much more westerly, like a 270 vector.. 250-265 usually hits us pretty good here depending on width of the band. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-WXFREAK Posted January 22, 2019 Share Posted January 22, 2019 Alls I know is, someone up in the Tug this weekend is getting feet of snow with a band extending some 50-60 miles, out over the water, its gonna be sick! I bet driving North this weekend up 81 is gonna be a sight as you get closer and closer to the billowing clouds ( almost pillow like) ahead as they look like a mid-summers thunderstorm only to find blinding blizzard conditions with rates approaching 2-3 and sometimes 4"/hr, with 25-35mph winds blowing it and drifting it all over the place! This event as all parameters, for a serious blockbuster event! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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