lakeeffectkid383 Posted January 29, 2019 Share Posted January 29, 2019 Just now, Buffalo Bumble said: I'm surprised at that map. Figured with the strong band that fired up in southern Erie County late yesterday afternoon that a good chunk of the central basin was still open. Yeah that map seems very suspect for sure but I guess it’s possible... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Syrmax Posted January 29, 2019 Share Posted January 29, 2019 7 minutes ago, CNY-WXFREAK said: Thats being generous bro as I'm going with zip for tonight and as the front approaches tomorrow sn may get heavier and steadier for a time, but will be over in no time. almost like a CF picking up a band and taking it with it. 18Z NAM spits out ~0.2" liquid at KSYR...12Z GEM&GFS had around 1/3"...so yeah at 11:1 we net about 2-4" total. "Lollipops" to 5" in the hills South of here. LOL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthBuffaloSteve Posted January 29, 2019 Share Posted January 29, 2019 wasn't it just last year we had that surprise event that NWS issued a blizzard warning for? They didn't think the lake could support anything with the ice cover and only issued a squall warning at first just found this which seems like a interesting read https://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/10.1175/2007MWR2310.1Wasn’t a frozen lake they just didn’t think parameters would support anything more than flurries. Conditions were all very marginal but the wind made even the low snowfall rates seem extreme. Nice event bad forecast call.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buffalo Bumble Posted January 29, 2019 Share Posted January 29, 2019 1 minute ago, WesterlyWx said: Yeah that map seems very suspect for sure but I guess it’s possible... It's raining and 40 deg in Cleveland right now. Probably not warm enough to open much water up down there, but any little melting will help to prime the pump. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
southbuffalowx Posted January 29, 2019 Share Posted January 29, 2019 3 minutes ago, WesterlyWx said: Yeah that map seems very suspect for sure but I guess it’s possible... Last night was very cold and calm, so I'm guessing that aided ice growth a lot. That being said, that would mean much of the ice is very thin, so if that's the case, maybe it won't have much affect at all. It's still interesting to note, nonetheless Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Vicarious Posted January 29, 2019 Share Posted January 29, 2019 7 minutes ago, SouthBuffaloSteve said: Wasn’t a frozen lake they just didn’t think parameters would support anything more than flurries. Conditions were all very marginal but the wind made even the low snowfall rates seem extreme. Nice event bad forecast call. . Thanks for finding that. I couldn't remember the exact details. That link I posted is a really good read on ice coverage and lake effect off Erie, here is the link https://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/10.1175/2007MWR2310.1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted January 29, 2019 Share Posted January 29, 2019 47 minutes ago, Syrmax said: I saw indications of that but several days left for that to resolve. Models usually underdo the warm push so if next weeks system tracks where currently progged it'll probably be more liquid than ice with this cold shot rotating out. This is different. Back door cold front models usually underdo cold from north east Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buffalo Bumble Posted January 29, 2019 Share Posted January 29, 2019 For entertainment purposes only...here's my WAG at upcoming snowfall through Friday: Erie Jack: BUF Airport - 27" Other notable Erie locations: Williamsville - 18"; West Seneca - 23"; Hamburg - 20"; Colden - 19" Ontario Jack: Barnes Corners: 47" Other notable Ontario locations: Watertown - 23"; Osceola/Highmarket - 29"; Redfield - 14" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Syrmax Posted January 29, 2019 Share Posted January 29, 2019 9 minutes ago, tim123 said: This is different. Back door cold front models usually underdo cold from north east There's no backdoor front next week. Its a mini torch. We will punch well into the 40s for 2 days with copious rain...again. Storm track is way west and awful in its inconsistency this season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lakeeffectkid383 Posted January 29, 2019 Share Posted January 29, 2019 2 minutes ago, Buffalo Bumble said: For entertainment purposes only...here's my WAG at upcoming snowfall through Friday: Erie Jack: BUF Airport - 27" Other notable Erie locations: Williamsville - 18"; West Seneca - 23"; Hamburg - 20"; Colden - 19" Ontario Jack: Barnes Corners: 47" Other notable Ontario locations: Watertown - 23"; Osceola/Highmarket - 29"; Redfield - 14" If I had to guess I’ll go: Erie Jack: Clarence 17” Other Locations: KBUF 15”, Williamsville 13”, West Seneca 10”, Hamburg 12”, Colden 16” Ontario Jack: Worth 39” Other Locations: KART 20” Osceola/Highmarket 26”, Redfield 18” Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted January 29, 2019 Share Posted January 29, 2019 9 minutes ago, Syrmax said: There's no backdoor front next week. Its a mini torch. We will punch well into the 40s for 2 days with copious rain...again. Storm track is way west and awful in its inconsistency this season. That storm has moved 500 miles on last 3 FV3 runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted January 29, 2019 Author Share Posted January 29, 2019 1 hour ago, Buffalo Bumble said: I'm surprised at that map. Figured with the strong band that fired up in southern Erie County late yesterday afternoon that a good chunk of the central basin was still open. OSU posted this earlier as of today, not sure that map is entirely accurate. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted January 29, 2019 Author Share Posted January 29, 2019 In other news, my mom was at Roswell all day. Brain tumor, keep her in your thoughts and prayers. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thinksnow18 Posted January 29, 2019 Share Posted January 29, 2019 3 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said: In other news, my mom was at Roswell all day. Brain tumor, keep her in your thoughts and prayers. From a man who was at Roswell 5 years ago for 43 days...there's no place you'd rather your mom get the care she needs/ deserves than at Roswell. Well wishes to your mom and to you and your family. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-WXFREAK Posted January 29, 2019 Share Posted January 29, 2019 Thats was a good one Tim, Back door cold front, lol! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted January 29, 2019 Author Share Posted January 29, 2019 1 minute ago, WxWatcher007 said: Oh man I’m really sorry to hear that. My prayers are with you and your family. 1 minute ago, Thinksnow18 said: From a man who was at Roswell 5 years ago for 43 days...there's no place you'd rather your mom get the care she needs/ deserves than at Roswell. Well wishes to your mom and to you and your family. Thanks guys, everything happened so quickly. Hopefully its benign and everything will be okay. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted January 29, 2019 Author Share Posted January 29, 2019 Since we are at 40 pages I was thinking of maybe creating a separate thread for this event? Or just create a new thread and talk about this event within it since its not effecting the entire upstate? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thinksnow18 Posted January 29, 2019 Share Posted January 29, 2019 1 minute ago, BuffaloWeather said: Since we are at 40 pages I was thinking of maybe creating a separate thread for this event? Or just create a new thread and talk about this event within it since its not effecting the entire upstate? Go with it. There's a better than good chance this is going to be remembered. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted January 29, 2019 Author Share Posted January 29, 2019 Just now, Thinksnow18 said: Go with it. There's a better than good chance this is going to be remembered. A separate thread just for this event and a general thread like we had for the last storm? Or just a new thread with both? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thinksnow18 Posted January 29, 2019 Share Posted January 29, 2019 42 minutes ago, Buffalo Bumble said: For entertainment purposes only...here's my WAG at upcoming snowfall through Friday: Erie Jack: BUF Airport - 27" Other notable Erie locations: Williamsville - 18"; West Seneca - 23"; Hamburg - 20"; Colden - 19" Ontario Jack: Barnes Corners: 47" Other notable Ontario locations: Watertown - 23"; Osceola/Highmarket - 29"; Redfield - 14" KBUF 28" Williamsville 23" Downtown 21" West Seneca 18" Hamburg 24" Colden 24" KART 39" Redfield 26" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thinksnow18 Posted January 29, 2019 Share Posted January 29, 2019 1 minute ago, BuffaloWeather said: A separate thread just for this event and a general thread like we had for the last storm? Or just a new thread with both? I think a new thread with both. Highlight this storm and then a outlook to February. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted January 29, 2019 Author Share Posted January 29, 2019 https://www.americanwx.com/bb/topic/51987-upstateeastern-new-york/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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