wolfie09 Posted January 28, 2019 Share Posted January 28, 2019 Haha Normally I would agree, but the 3k is only till 1am Thur, fun hasn't started yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted January 28, 2019 Share Posted January 28, 2019 4 minutes ago, wolfie09 said: Haha Normally I would agree, but the 3k is only till 1am Thur, fun hasn't started yet. What are your thoughts on the globals for the end of the week? I know they're not great with LES, but it just looks like they are seeing a more constant SW flow. Meh. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 28, 2019 Share Posted January 28, 2019 More of a w-wsw flow for the day on thursday into friday, at least at the surface.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 28, 2019 Share Posted January 28, 2019 Here was the euro.. I don't give a poop on what it shows verbatim lol I just like the look of the precip over the lake,, Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 28, 2019 Share Posted January 28, 2019 Saved the best for last , the 12z ukmet AKA the european NAM.. Loves to throw out that precip lol But we get hit pretty good thursday into friday verbatim.. I live pretty far north (1 mile SE of Richland) which should help with a west south westerly fllow.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthBuffaloSteve Posted January 29, 2019 Share Posted January 29, 2019 1 hour ago, Thinksnow18 said: Where are all our metro weenies??? Umm in shell shock that we could be looking at our third 12”+ snow in a 2 week period. This brings back memories of the late 90s and early 2000s when we would get the freight train of storms rolling through... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthBuffaloSteve Posted January 29, 2019 Share Posted January 29, 2019 I’ll just leave this here...So if this pans out an we see 2’ at KBUF that would only put us 4” off the mark for snowiest January? Seriously? Beating 77? For how depressing this winter has been I can’t believe we could possibly be in contention to possibly bust that record... . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted January 29, 2019 Share Posted January 29, 2019 Lol...you sure do love the Ukie. Looks like with LES bands, strong winds, and bitter cold...this is going to be an exciting week of winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted January 29, 2019 Share Posted January 29, 2019 I remember driving through the Buffalo lake effect snowstorm in the early 2000s that dumped like 7 to 8 feet. We were going to Niagara Falls for a college friend weekend. On the way up it was dumping in Orchard Park. Then I remember waking up in the middle if the night to see a fog of snow in Niagara as the band shifted north for a while. Then, on the way home...seeing snowbanks the size of houses all over Lancaster... It was my first experience with a true snow band. You know you're a weenie when you can remember the weather in such detail. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted January 29, 2019 Share Posted January 29, 2019 1 minute ago, WxWatcher007 said: Yep, that's why I decided to come up. Being in the snow bullseye is always best, but if I can get sig snow and big cold along with some strong winds, it's worth a trip no doubt whatsoever. I mean...I could be at home preparing for another cutter fail. Screw that. Haha. Watertown is going to do really well. I have a feeling you won't be disappointed. Welcome to the North Country! If conditions aren't too bad, I encourage you to check out the 1000 Islands. Beautiful area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 29, 2019 Share Posted January 29, 2019 I think it was 2015 where Watertown area had several big events in a row, snow breeds snow lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 29, 2019 Share Posted January 29, 2019 Nice 10 day stretch for them.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
southbuffalowx Posted January 29, 2019 Share Posted January 29, 2019 Ice cover as of this afternoon... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-WXFREAK Posted January 29, 2019 Share Posted January 29, 2019 I have a feeling there's gonna be quite a few members who are disappointed for just getting 18" when they were forecasted to get 40, lol! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-WXFREAK Posted January 29, 2019 Share Posted January 29, 2019 Just now, southbuffalowx said: Ice cover as of this afternoon... If thats real it'll be frozen over by the weekend, lol! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-WXFREAK Posted January 29, 2019 Share Posted January 29, 2019 It was almost wide open the last few days, WOW! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
southbuffalowx Posted January 29, 2019 Share Posted January 29, 2019 Just now, CNY-WXFREAK said: If thats real it'll be frozen over by the weekend, lol! I think it may have broken up some further down towards Cleveland with temperatures above freezing and strong southerly winds, but that is definitely going to inhibit lake effect bands of Erie significantly. It'll probably be frozen over by Thursday afternoon, so ski country probably won't see too much Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted January 29, 2019 Share Posted January 29, 2019 4 minutes ago, CNY-WXFREAK said: I have a feeling there's gonna be quite a few members who are disappointed for just getting 18" when they were forecasted to get 40, lol! I don't think any of us are actually expecting 40"? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted January 29, 2019 Share Posted January 29, 2019 4 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said: That was the first thing people said when I arrived. Hopefully I can. Haha that's the hope. Hoping to get at least one period of great rates during Jebwalking hours. There's no such thing as certain hours. Any time of the day or night is gpod for a Jeb walk... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Syrmax Posted January 29, 2019 Share Posted January 29, 2019 13 minutes ago, CNY-WXFREAK said: I have a feeling there's gonna be quite a few members who are disappointed for just getting 18" when they were forecasted to get 40, lol! Cleveland is/was torching and rain, 39F. Sorta envious. We need to get that up into CNY to get the roads and cars spic n span again, but no deal. Rice snow and cold for us! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted January 29, 2019 Share Posted January 29, 2019 May be a classic south shore ice storm coming next week. Euro and gfs v3 have it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-WXFREAK Posted January 29, 2019 Share Posted January 29, 2019 We'll be in a virga storm real quick and its gonna need to precipitate quite a bit before saturation as we're sitting at 18F/1F, lots of wasted precip for sure! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Syrmax Posted January 29, 2019 Share Posted January 29, 2019 2 minutes ago, tim123 said: May be a classic south shore ice storm coming next week. Euro and gfs v3 have it I saw indications of that but several days left for that to resolve. Models usually underdo the warm push so if next weeks system tracks where currently progged it'll probably be more liquid than ice with this cold shot rotating out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthBuffaloSteve Posted January 29, 2019 Share Posted January 29, 2019 I think it may have broken up some further down towards Cleveland with temperatures above freezing and strong southerly winds, but that is definitely going to inhibit lake effect bands of Erie significantly. It'll probably be frozen over by Thursday afternoon, so ski country probably won't see too muchFrozen lake doesn’t mean anything... 5 mile wide open patch of lake water was just enough to fire up a band that dropped 10-14” over central Erie county. . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Syrmax Posted January 29, 2019 Share Posted January 29, 2019 4 minutes ago, CNY-WXFREAK said: We'll be in a virga storm real quick and its gonna need to precipitate quite a bit before saturation as we're sitting at 18F/1F, lots of wasted precip for sure! Good point, was thinking that might be the case. It is dry. I'll go with 1/2 -3/4" by dawn here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Syrmax Posted January 29, 2019 Share Posted January 29, 2019 3 minutes ago, SouthBuffaloSteve said: Frozen lake doesn’t mean anything... 5 mile wide open patch of lake water was just enough to fire up a band that dropped 10-14” over central Erie county. Good find. I remember that event. That's why I dont think you all near Buffalo will have much of an issue with frozen lake limitations with this event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-WXFREAK Posted January 29, 2019 Share Posted January 29, 2019 Just now, Syrmax said: Good point, was thinking that might be the case. It is dry. I'll go with 1/2 -3/4" by dawn here. Thats being generous bro as I'm going with zip for tonight and as the front approaches tomorrow sn may get heavier and steadier for a time, but will be over in no time. almost like a CF picking up a band and taking it with it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Vicarious Posted January 29, 2019 Share Posted January 29, 2019 wasn't it just last year we had that surprise event that NWS issued a blizzard warning for? They didn't think the lake could support anything with the ice cover and only issued a squall warning at first just found this which seems like a interesting read https://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/10.1175/2007MWR2310.1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buffalo Bumble Posted January 29, 2019 Share Posted January 29, 2019 33 minutes ago, southbuffalowx said: I think it may have broken up some further down towards Cleveland with temperatures above freezing and strong southerly winds, but that is definitely going to inhibit lake effect bands of Erie significantly. It'll probably be frozen over by Thursday afternoon, so ski country probably won't see too much I'm surprised at that map. Figured with the strong band that fired up in southern Erie County late yesterday afternoon that a good chunk of the central basin was still open. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lakeeffectkid383 Posted January 29, 2019 Share Posted January 29, 2019 Just last night lake lake was producing 2-3”/hr rates and dropped a foot in the matter of hours! Lake will have plenty of unfrozen water left for a significant event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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