Upstate/Eastern New York

[Buffalo Bumble]

1 minute ago, BuffaloWeather said:

Do you have the link to this page?

I'm really surprised by this. Even near Cleveland there is just broken ice. Monday and Tuesday look around 32 which will stop the icing. Even more intrigued for the Weds-Fri event now. 

Same here, figured any lake effect this week off Erie would be battling a lot of ice cover. That band this morning in southern Erie was cranking, so that’s a good sign too. 

[BuffaloWeather]

Just now, Buffalo Bumble said:

Same here, figured any lake effect this week off Erie would be battling a lot of ice cover. That band this morning in southern Erie was cranking, so that’s a good sign too. 

I'm worried about moisture/dry air. The synoptic support is much better off the Tug then here. 

[BuffaloWeather]

We will have a much better idea tomorrow as the higher res guidance comes into play. 

[BuffaloWeather]

@OSUmetstud

Any thoughts on this event? The combined LES, wind, cold look blizzardy with 1-2' already on the ground.

[Thinksnow18]

5 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said:

We will have a much better idea tomorrow as the higher res guidance comes into play. 

We're going to get smoked on Tuesday night and Wednesday in the metro. 

[rochesterdave]

It was cranking near the Tug this AM. About 4” in 3 hours. 

Headed back to Rochester. This is a terrible pattern for KROC but an incredible pattern for almost everyone else in the forum. It is my turn to hope for the rest of you for a change. 

Matt, you’ll do well with this pattern. It’s all upslope stuff. BUF should get at least a couple great shots of SW!

[BuffaloWeather]

This event is popping up as the top analog, makes a lot of sense too. Looks like a less free lake Erie this time around. Bitterly cold temps and a nice WSW flow. There was a Blizzard Warning issued for this event, and another in March 2014. 

https://www.weather.gov/buf/lesEventArchive?season=2013-2014&event=G

 

[TugHillMatt]

Interesting..That band over Northern Oswego county doesn't really seem to be dropping anything. It looked good, and it moved over me a couple times but didn't see much. Checked webcams farther north and appears to not be doing much there either. Is that a common radar display for nothing to actually be happening?

[BuffaloWeather]

Prime feature: Excessive snow on the Tug Hill and Blizzard 
conditions in Buffalo
This was certainly one of the premier lake effect events of a very 
active winter season.  Blizzard conditions were experienced across a 
large portion of the Niagara Frontier, including the Buffalo 
Metropolitan area, while over 5 feet of snow fell on the Tug Hill 
Plateau.  All of this coming as a result of anomalously cold air 
that made its way south from the Canadian Arctic.
A very deep...full latitude trough, centered over the plains of 
North America on Jan 5th, opened the door for some of the coldest 
air of the season to pour southward from Northern Saskatchewan.  The 
frigid airmass, with 850mb temperatures of 25 to 30 C below, charged 
across the Northern Plains to the Upper Mississippi Valley during 
the weekend leading up to the event.  Climatologically, this set the 
stage for a significant lake effect snow event.  The largest lake 
snows in the Buffalo metro area typically occur when the cold air 
lifts out of the Ohio Valley and up the full axis of Lake Erie, 
rather than taking a direct route from the Upper Great Lakes or 
Southern Ontario.  The slow track of the upper level vortex and its 
associated surface low were also recognized as key elements to 
portend a crippling snowfall. 
This pattern recognition played a huge role in forecasting this 
event.  Lake effect snow watches were issued three full days ahead 
of the event with lake effect snow warnings issued over 30 hours 
before significant snows accumulated.  As the event unfolded, 
blizzard warnings were issued in the Buffalo Metro area for the 
first time since 1993.  The likelihood of blizzard conditions and 
snowfall amounts of 5 to 6 feet (for the Tug Hill) were discussed in 
the Area Forecast Discussion and with various radio media outlets 
days before the event.

As the upper level flow became more zonal and the surface high build 
across the Mid Atlantic States Wednesday night and Thursday (the 
9th), the lakes snows tapered off to flurries. 
This event will not only be remembered for the prolonged period of 
blizzard conditions across parts of the Niagara Frontier and the 
four to five feet of snow east of Lake Ontario, but for the 
agonizing stretch of brutal wind chill values of 10 to 30 below 
zero.  This certainly made this one of the more dangerous lake 
effect events in recent memory.  It could have been worse though for 
those downwind of Lake Erie, as 60 percent ice coverage tempered 
what otherwise could have been twice the snowfall. 

[BuffaloWeather]

I hope this ends Tim’s notion that sw flow events only happen in November and December. 

[Syrmax]

5 hours ago, wolfie09 said:

We are a special breed lol

Majority of the population is weather illiterate...

I actually know a few who can't tell the difference between a tornado and hurricane lol

Almost everyone thinks sleet is freezing rain..haha

I have friends who call bust when the forecast is 30 percent showers , "weatherman are always wrong"

And they're convinced of global warning's worst outcomes...just ask them...

[SouthBuffaloSteve]

53 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said:

Do you have the link to this page?

I'm really surprised by this. Even near Cleveland there is just broken ice. Monday and Tuesday look around 32 which will stop the icing. Even more intrigued for the Weds-Fri event now. 

https://www.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/GOES/sector_band.php?sat=G16&sector=cgl&band=GEOCOLOR&length=12

[DeltaT13]

There are a ton of knobs to turn on this page that you can use to assess the Erie ice cover.  Just an awesome site! Enjoy

https://weather.cod.edu/satrad/exper/?parms=local-LakeErie-natcolor-48-0-100-1&checked=map&colorbar=undefined

https://weather.cod.edu/satrad/

[SouthBuffaloSteve]

Hmm... BUF just doesn’t really seemed impressed with the lake effect for the metro on Wednesday. I mean will still are 2 1/2 days out but their verbiage is very lackluster...

Record cold is certainly a possibility.
West-southwest flow will lead to a lake response during this time
with snow showers northeast of the Lakes Wednesday. It won`t be
until Wednesday afternoon and evening that another clipper moves
into the Upper Great Lakes and the lake response intensifies east of
the Lakes by Thursday morning. These winds will also produce
dangerous wind chills to -20F to -30 Wed-Wed night


.

[rochesterdave]

40 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said:

I hope this ends Tim’s notion that sw flow events only happen in November and December. 

Me too

[ayuud11]

IMO northtowns are gonna get smoked I mean we’re talking about a steady 240-250 flow for over 24hrs with little to no shear and decent moisture per BUFKIT profiles..

[wolfie09]

Total snow accumulations
from Monday evening to Wednesday night will range from 3 to 6 inches
across the Niagara Frontier, Genesee Valley and western Finger Lakes
to 4 to 8 inches across the western Southern Tier and 10 to 18
inches east of Lake Ontario. Gusty winds during this time will
promote areas of drifting and blowing snow which will greatly reduce
visibilities. At this time, confidence is high enough to issue a
Winter Storm Watch for east of Lake Ontario.

[CNY-WXFREAK]

3 hours ago, wolfie09 said:

It looks like next week will be dominated by a WSW/SW flow, not sure why I have high end pops all week, probably be watching a mile north get hammered lol

This system on Monday/Tuesday still looks ok with about 3/4"-1"+ liquid on the majority of models..

yeah for you, lol!

[Buffalo Bumble]

30 minutes ago, SouthBuffaloSteve said:

Hmm... BUF just doesn’t really seemed impressed with the lake effect for the metro on Wednesday. I mean will still are 2 1/2 days out but their verbiage is very lackluster...

Record cold is certainly a possibility.
West-southwest flow will lead to a lake response during this time
with snow showers northeast of the Lakes Wednesday. It won`t be
until Wednesday afternoon and evening that another clipper moves
into the Upper Great Lakes and the lake response intensifies east of
the Lakes by Thursday morning. These winds will also produce
dangerous wind chills to -20F to -30 Wed-Wed night


.

Interesting...was thinking the Tuesday night to Wed night period would be the best shot for northtowns, but per this maybe dry air will hold things down during that time.  Hopefully things trend better and we start to at least see some watches pop up in WNY by tomorrow afternoon. 

[CNY-WXFREAK]

23 minutes ago, wolfie09 said:

Total snow accumulations
from Monday evening to Wednesday night will range from 3 to 6 inches
across the Niagara Frontier, Genesee Valley and western Finger Lakes
to 4 to 8 inches across the western Southern Tier and 10 to 18
inches east of Lake IOntario. Gusty winds during this time will
promote areas of drifting and blowing snow which will greatly reduce
visibilities. At this time, confidence is high enough to issue a
Winter Storm Watch for east of Lake Ontario.

I don't even know where I'm located anymore, lol, as I thought I was in CNY and NOT the Finger lakes, WTF?  So. Oswego County should be considered N-CNY and down by Skeaneatlas  more closer to the FL's but my area is right in the middle but has no real name for the area I guess.  So I guess I'll go with 4-8" cause we're most certainly not getting 10-18" thats for damn sure!

[CNY-WXFREAK]

Just now, Buffalo Bumble said:

Interesting...was thinking the Tuesday night to Wed night period would be the best shot for northtowns, but per this maybe dry air will hold things down during that time.  Hopefully things trend better and we start to at least see some watches pop up in WNY by tomorrow afternoon. 

Too cold for sure especially with 850's down to -25-30C thats just nuts, lol, the atmosphere will be hard pressed to hold much if any moisture and I think that's why they mentioned the B word in some of their previous discussions as they mentioned wind speeds and the fine powdery pixie dust like nature to the snow so we'll see.

[southbuffalowx]

47 minutes ago, ayuud11 said:

IMO northtowns are gonna get smoked I mean we’re talking about a steady 240-250 flow for over 24hrs with little to no shear and decent moisture per BUFKIT profiles..

We saw how their hesitancy and the models played out with the storm Thursday and Friday, so the potential is definitely there. Even the mesoscale models aren't very precise when it comes to LE, but I'm hoping we get one last hurrah!

[lakeeffectkid383]

4 minutes ago, CNY-WXFREAK said:

Too cold for sure especially with 850's down to -25-30C thats just nuts, lol, the atmosphere will be hard pressed to hold much if any moisture and I think that's why they mentioned the B word in some of their previous discussions as they mentioned wind speeds and the fine powdery pixie dust like nature to the snow so we'll see.

The analog that BuffaloWeather posted of Jan 2014 had 850s at -25 to -30c which dumped 2 feet in the Southtowns and 5 feet plus on the Tug so it’s certainly possible for the air to hold enough moisture for significant snow with those temperatures forecasted. Now wether or not this airmass is going to be as moist I’m not sure but I know it’s certainly possible.

[CNY-WXFREAK]

Well there ya go then, lol, cause I'm not familiar at all with any past events and haven't even looked at these events in depth cause alls I see is WSW-SW winds all day every day for the foreseeable future so good for you guys out there as it had to arrive sooner ot later as we go deeper into below normal levels as we're at 11" close to 12 actually as of today so things better start changing as I'm sure they will.

[southbuffalowx]

4 minutes ago, WesterlyWx said:

The analog that BuffaloWeather posted of Jan 2014 had 850s at -25 to -30c which dumped 2 feet in the Southtowns and 5 feet plus on the Tug so it’s certainly possible for the air to hold enough moisture for significant snow with those temperatures forecasted. Now wether or not this airmass is going to be as moist I’m not sure but I know it’s certainly possible.

Not to mention the blizzard of 85, which was just as cold, if not colder, and it dumped 3-4'!

[lakeeffectkid383]

With last night and this mornings snowfall I’m now at over 70” for the season which has to be near or slightly above average now. In the last 10 days (1/17 - 1/27) I’ve seen almost 2/3 of my seasonal snowfall with 42.4”. It’s been an awesome period for sure and if not for that one day where we were in the upper 40s with over an inch of rain which absolutley destroyed our pack, we would likely be well over 2 feet otg instead of about 14-15” , but I’m not complaining lol. With more snow coming this week even though it could be a couple inches or a couple feet I may end up with 4-5 feet of snow in a 2 week period which is just awesome. Just goes to show you how even in a shi**y pattern like we were in, things can change on a dime and can go into a pattern where everything changes and just seems to workout. 

[CNY-WXFREAK]

LOL, the event for tomorrow night through Thursday according to the Euro is now a ENY event, lol, this is getting better and better!  Heck, I'd start rooting for a record low snowfall for 18-19' at this rate as every event has practically done everything to avoid the CWA so good job.  We're down to amslab of ice on most trails and without any real precip on its way for CNY, after this brief but cold few days we warm and whatever's left will melt for sure and then we gotta start all over again and by that time we're in the second week of February, stick a fork in 18-19 and Buffalo wins the snowball contest!

Can't post the Euro map so if Wolfie can then all will see.  Maybe its a blip as it was steady for our area for days and now it went East by a considerable margin so....

[CNY-WXFREAK]

Keep getting these reach around cold shots that come in from the SW but you guys out in WNY are sure benefiting from this pattern thats for sure so at least one area is!

[CNY-WXFREAK]

The next few days is pot luck as pretty much every piece of guidance has a different solution as it can't just be straight forward like most rain storms are!

[BuffaloWeather]

Nam looks fantastic. Event goes from tues night to Friday.