CNY-WXFREAK Posted January 21, 2019 Share Posted January 21, 2019 Love to see everyone buried! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 21, 2019 Share Posted January 21, 2019 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 21, 2019 Share Posted January 21, 2019 Out ahead of the system.. Euro has some rain but not much.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 21, 2019 Share Posted January 21, 2019 And lastly the LES event depicted on the euro is mainly WSW with a little westerly, keeps me on the southern fringes, for now.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vortmax Posted January 21, 2019 Share Posted January 21, 2019 3 minutes ago, wolfie09 said: And lastly the LES event depicted on the euro is mainly WSW with a little westerly, keeps me on the southern fringes, for now.. I'd be willing to share the love after getting almost 30"! Lol...almost a 1/3 of our season average in a couple of days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vortmax Posted January 21, 2019 Share Posted January 21, 2019 23 minutes ago, CNY-WXFREAK said: That's not just from the LE event? Thats all the snow we'we gotten since Saturday?? The entire event. I'd say 17" for synoptic w/lake enhancement and 10" from pure LE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 21, 2019 Share Posted January 21, 2019 What is that 8 hrs in Pulaski Kbuf The pattern will turn much more wintry again for the end of the week and next weekend after our brief warm-up on Wednesday. The +PNA pattern will re-amplify significantly by next weekend across the North American continent, with a deep trough carving out in the east. This will push temperatures to well below average again. This cold pattern will have staying power, with long range outlooks and ensembles suggesting it lasting through the end of the month and beyond. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buffalo Bumble Posted January 21, 2019 Share Posted January 21, 2019 Anyone have any ice cover sat images for Lake Erie? The one I use isn't available due to g'vt shutdown. Based on these webcams, it looks like the western basin is completely frozen: https://www.shoresandislands.com/webcams/ https://www.earthcam.com/usa/ohio/cleveland/?cam=pierw BUT....this one from Long Point shows wide open water: https://stephen6605.wixsite.com/corkepoint/live-stream About what I would expect at this point. Western basin mostly frozen, eastern basin mostly open. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lakeeffectkid383 Posted January 21, 2019 Share Posted January 21, 2019 9 minutes ago, Buffalo Bumble said: Anyone have any ice cover sat images for Lake Erie? The one I use isn't available due to g'vt shutdown. Based on these webcams, it looks like the western basin is completely frozen: https://www.shoresandislands.com/webcams/ https://www.earthcam.com/usa/ohio/cleveland/?cam=pierw BUT....this one from Long Point shows wide open water: https://stephen6605.wixsite.com/corkepoint/live-stream About what I would expect at this point. Western basin mostly frozen, eastern basin mostly open. As of yesterday, almost completely wide open. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-LES FREAK Posted January 21, 2019 Share Posted January 21, 2019 Man Erie won't be frozen till first week of February if we get sustain cold you guys are fine for at least two to three weeks! If temps are like they are now for an extended period of time then I'd imagine it would freeze a lot quicker but it won't freeze in a week with temps in a mid-twenties and lows in a teen's no way but I don't live there so I may be wrong Buffalo weather knows all about Lake ErieSent from my SM-G930V using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-LES FREAK Posted January 21, 2019 Share Posted January 21, 2019 After measuring about six or seven places in my yard I averaged close to 17 in which sounds about right so I'll take it nothing like what you guys got in Monroe or Wayne but it was definitely a nice system for you guys but you guys definitely deserved it.It's funny cuz I drove to Liverpool into Syracuse and they have to have about five or six probably close to 8 in less than I do as I'm about 25 miles north of the city but it's definitely a difference Lake Effect hit us a lot more last night than it did in the citySent from my SM-G930V using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 21, 2019 Share Posted January 21, 2019 To much SE Ridge to allow this to go much farther South/east..If we had some strong HP to the north it would be different story.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 21, 2019 Share Posted January 21, 2019 Nice signal on the EPS for the end of the work week.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted January 21, 2019 Author Share Posted January 21, 2019 So my wifes car wouldn't start this morning due to the cold and my hot water tank pilot lights but the burner won't after last nights cold. Not sure if pipes are frozen? But reason number 43 of why I hate the cold. Looking forward to the 40s on wednesday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 21, 2019 Share Posted January 21, 2019 Nam once again is all ice, no plain rain (for the cutter), temps in the mid -upper 20's.. Just under 1/2" LE in the form of ice verbatim.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 21, 2019 Share Posted January 21, 2019 This is our warm up on the nam lol Going to feel like summer compared to what we are going through now.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BGM Blizzard Posted January 21, 2019 Share Posted January 21, 2019 12z GFS had a real bomb at Day 7. Yes please. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 21, 2019 Share Posted January 21, 2019 .SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... ...Potential for icy mixed precipitation... This will be a fairly active period...one that will probably start with some mixed precipitation and an eventual winter weather advisory. Stay tuned as the event nears for another round of winter weather headlines. Shortwave energy...seen in WV imagery over the inter-mountain region late this afternoon...will eject out across the Plains during the day Tuesday. This will be accompanied by another instance where the two main branches of the jet will phase over the Mississippi Valley. Unlike the case from our major winter storm from the past weekend though...the northern branch will dominate the flow and will have more of an influence on the path of the resulting cyclone. Before its all said and done...the mature sfc low will move by to our west on a track that is not dissimilar to those that generate powerful wind storms for our forecast area. Fortunately...the low is not forecast to significantly strengthen. In any case...the consolidating sfc low will move to about Chicago by the end of Tuesday night...while the arctic high that had been dominating our weather will be centered off the Mid Atlantic coast. The will establish a moderately strong warm advective pattern over the Lower Great Lakes...aided by a 50kt low level jet that will nudge into our area after midnight. The arrival of the strong low level jet will be the main source of lift for the expected shower activity with a little help being supplied by a 100kt H25 jet. While strong agreement between the various guidance packages will lend to high confidence in the pops for Tuesday night...there is lot of uncertainty as to the p-type that will be experienced. At first glance...the warm advection appears to eliminate the dendritic growth zone. Given the synoptic pattern...one could easily conclude that any snow at the onset will change to a period of freezing rain...then just to rain. This would especially be the case for sites WEST of the Genesee valley. One problem is that guidance is suggesting that a relatively dry environment under 10k ft will lend itself to strong dynamic cooling through evaporation during the first few hours of pcpn. There is also some question as to whether a dendritic growth zone at alto-cu level will be able to `seed` the underlying increase in low level moisture. If both conditions listed actually come to pass...then the p type will stay as snow for the bulk of the night...particularly for the Finger Lakes to the Eastern Lake Ontario region. Otherwise...snow at the onset will transition to freezing rain...then just to rain. This while complex transition will almost certainly lead to winter weather advisories being issued for the threat of freezing rain. Pops overnight will range from high chance in the Finger Lakes and interior of the Southern Tier to categorical over the far west. It should go without saying that a non-diurnal temperature trend is anticipated during this synoptic set up...with mins generally occurring before midnight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthBuffaloSteve Posted January 21, 2019 Share Posted January 21, 2019 Anyone have any ice cover sat images for Lake Erie? The one I use isn't available due to g'vt shutdown. Based on these webcams, it looks like the western basin is completely frozen:https://www.shoresandislands.com/webcams/https://www.earthcam.com/usa/ohio/cleveland/?cam=pierw BUT....this one from Long Point shows wide open water: https://stephen6605.wixsite.com/corkepoint/live-stream About what I would expect at this point. Western basin mostly frozen, eastern basin mostly open. Not as good as the MODIS view but if you jive them all up it’s pretty close. Lot of open water still but the clock is ticking! . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 21, 2019 Share Posted January 21, 2019 A very strong shortwave will dig south towards the Upper Great Lakes Thursday night. This will help to drive an arctic cold front to our doorstep by daybreak Friday while a weak sfc reflection will be parked over southern Ontario in the vcnty of Lake Huron. The boundary will generate scattered snow showers over our region with lake enhanced snows being found east of both lakes. The lake effect could become significant as the cold air deepens and a solid westerly flow becomes established. Stay tuned...especially those in and around the Tug Hill area. The base of a longwave trough will push across the Lower Great Lakes on Friday while the aforementioned arctic front will be stalled near Lake Ontario. This will set the stage for an even colder day across our region...but more importantly...the persistent westerly flow in the vcnty of the boundary will favor an impressive plume of lake snow near the Tug Hill. The remainder of the region will experience scattered snow showers...but accumulations should be confined to areas east of both lakes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 21, 2019 Share Posted January 21, 2019 Confidence is off the charts that temperatures will average below normal during this period...as a highly amplified pattern will be in place across the continent. A very staunch ridge centered off the west coast will define a +PNA pattern that will be coupled with a persistent ridge over Greenland...a CLASSIC cold weather pattern. The pair of ridges will lock an expansive closed low over eastern Canada...part of which will include the polar vortex. This notorious feature is forecast to push at least 500 miles further south than usual...possibly settling between Lake Superior and James Bay. The coldest air in the northern hemisphere will not only be on this side of the pole...but because of this pattern it could conceivably be on THIS side of James Bay! This pool of glacial air will also be supported by a persistent cross polar flow...which will not only prevent the airmass from modifying...but will also serve to keep it `charged`. As for the day to day weather...a cold southwesterly flow on Saturday will supported some lake snows northeast of both lakes. Otherwise...general subsidence should keep the bulk of the region pcpn free with max temps generally in the teens. A difficult to time clipper will then race by to our north Saturday night or Sunday. This will keep scattered snow showers in place while also introducing the next round of arctic air. Will have to broad brush the pops given the 12 hour difference in the timing between the various ensembles. A more significant storm system is then expected to impact the Great Lakes on Monday. There is a very large spread in solutions though between the various medium range packages...so will have to continue to broad brush the pops with chc pops for snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 21, 2019 Share Posted January 21, 2019 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thinksnow18 Posted January 21, 2019 Share Posted January 21, 2019 21 minutes ago, wolfie09 said: Confidence is off the charts that temperatures will average below normal during this period...as a highly amplified pattern will be in place across the continent. A very staunch ridge centered off the west coast will define a +PNA pattern that will be coupled with a persistent ridge over Greenland...a CLASSIC cold weather pattern. The pair of ridges will lock an expansive closed low over eastern Canada...part of which will include the polar vortex. This notorious feature is forecast to push at least 500 miles further south than usual...possibly settling between Lake Superior and James Bay. The coldest air in the northern hemisphere will not only be on this side of the pole...but because of this pattern it could conceivably be on THIS side of James Bay! This pool of glacial air will also be supported by a persistent cross polar flow...which will not only prevent the airmass from modifying...but will also serve to keep it `charged`. As for the day to day weather...a cold southwesterly flow on Saturday will supported some lake snows northeast of both lakes. Otherwise...general subsidence should keep the bulk of the region pcpn free with max temps generally in the teens. A difficult to time clipper will then race by to our north Saturday night or Sunday. This will keep scattered snow showers in place while also introducing the next round of arctic air. Will have to broad brush the pops given the 12 hour difference in the timing between the various ensembles. A more significant storm system is then expected to impact the Great Lakes on Monday. There is a very large spread in solutions though between the various medium range packages...so will have to continue to broad brush the pops with chc pops for snow. Ding ding on the Saturday SW flow!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted January 21, 2019 Share Posted January 21, 2019 3 hours ago, wolfie09 said: And lastly the LES event depicted on the euro is mainly WSW with a little westerly, keeps me on the southern fringes, for now.. I’ll be up In Lowville area starting Thursday. Brantingham lake to be specific. You know I do like this look!!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DeltaT13 Posted January 21, 2019 Share Posted January 21, 2019 This is a first for me at least. I've never seen an Avalanche Warning anywhere on the East Coast. Pretty cool. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 22, 2019 Share Posted January 22, 2019 If it was stalled it would have much more potential, some potential snow nonetheless..Nothing wrong with padding the stats lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 22, 2019 Share Posted January 22, 2019 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thinksnow18 Posted January 22, 2019 Share Posted January 22, 2019 So I read the KBUF AFD this morning, specifically the long range for friday through next Monday. The discuss the perfect set up for cross polar air die to a +PNA and Greenland block supercharging the air as the PV drops to the northern Great Lakes! They state this will have lasting power through the foreseeable future too!!! Elaborate then why the next 3 systems after that all cut west of us giving us rain instead of snow?!?!?! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted January 22, 2019 Share Posted January 22, 2019 Lack of a solid -NAO. Thus the SE ridge can flex more easily. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thinksnow18 Posted January 22, 2019 Share Posted January 22, 2019 4 minutes ago, TugHillMatt said: Lack of a solid -NAO. Thus the SE ridge can flex more easily. And that's the rub...they state it is a strong block. Someone is very wrong here either the models or the forecast of weeks of cold Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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