wolfie09 Posted January 26, 2019 Share Posted January 26, 2019 Yeah the NWS has me at 3"-6" for tomorrow/night, not sure i buy that lol And they are HO-Hum on the monday event which i think will change soon.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted January 26, 2019 Share Posted January 26, 2019 Well, the noon runs have already moved tomorrow's band farther north...again. It is never ending.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thinksnow18 Posted January 26, 2019 Share Posted January 26, 2019 1 hour ago, WNash said: Those reports capture it pretty well. Biggest snows were south and east of a line from just north of the galleria to just north of the airport to roughly Maple and Transit to Clarence Center. I have to drive out to Klein and Transit this afternoon so I can try to verify where the cutoff of that band is. Man I thought I measured short of that but I did miss the evening measurement so that could be why I was @ 12.6" I am right at maple and transit Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 26, 2019 Share Posted January 26, 2019 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 26, 2019 Share Posted January 26, 2019 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 26, 2019 Share Posted January 26, 2019 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 26, 2019 Share Posted January 26, 2019 For tomorrow.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 26, 2019 Share Posted January 26, 2019 ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 4 AM TO 11 PM EST SUNDAY... * WHAT...Lake effect snow expected. Total snow accumulations of 4 to 8 inches expected in the most persistent lake snows. Winds gusting as high as 35 mph. * WHERE...The Eastern Lake Ontario Region. * WHEN...From 4 AM to 11 PM EST Sunday. * ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Travel could be very difficult. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 26, 2019 Share Posted January 26, 2019 A more widespread area of light snow will develop across Western NY by late tonight, and spread eastward across the entire area Sunday morning. It will still be cold enough ahead of this system for some modest lake enhancement northeast of the lakes, followed by orographic enhancement in the westerly flow behind the system. This system will produce at least some snow in all areas, but amounts will vary considerably based on location. For the Niagara Frontier and Western Southern Tier expect a period of snow between 2 am and 10 am to drop 2-3 inches of snow. The Lower Genesee Valley and western Finger Lakes will not benefit from lake or orographic enhancement, with generally an inch or less of snow late tonight into Sunday morning. The most snow will be east of Lake Ontario where there will be steady snow Sunday with the low Sunday morning, followed by a period of lake effect snow Sunday afternoon and early evening. There will be some light lake effect snow east of Lake Erie, but it will be more significant off Lake Ontario where there is a longer fetch and moisture from Lake Huron. The forecast uses a mesoscale guidance weighted blend of model guidance in order to capture these features. Also, BUFKIT shows the best lift in a favorable temperature range for dendritic snow growth, suggesting it will be a rather fluffy snow with 15:1 ratios or greater. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WNash Posted January 26, 2019 Share Posted January 26, 2019 1 hour ago, Thinksnow18 said: Man I thought I measured short of that but I did miss the evening measurement so that could be why I was @ 12.6" I am right at maple and transit I drove out to Clarence Center and back. There's sublimation and compaction since yesterday - the 6.5" we had in NE Buffalo looks more like 5" this afternoon. But I went on Kensington to Main, then up to UB North, then out to Transit on North French, then down to Main. It was consistent 5” to 9” for basically all of that route. Down Transit, it was also about 8-9” until near Eastern Hills Mall, then it went to maybe 15”. The biggest cutoff was at ECC. On the ECC campus near Werle, I measured 18” - but on the north part of ECC near Main, I measured 8”. So it’s pretty clear the band set up from the airport along and above Werle and out to roughly Main and Transit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 26, 2019 Share Posted January 26, 2019 2 hours ago, TugHillMatt said: Well, the noon runs have already moved tomorrow's band farther north...again. It is never ending.... Starting to look a little better Matt.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 26, 2019 Share Posted January 26, 2019 Now this is a winter week.. Sunday Snow before 4pm, then snow showers likely between 4pm and 5pm, then snow after 5pm. High near 28. Southeast wind 15 to 18 mph becoming west in the afternoon. Winds could gust as high as 28 mph. Chance of precipitation is 90%. New snow accumulation of 2 to 4 inches possible. Sunday Night Snow before 7pm, then a chance of snow showers, mainly between 7pm and 1am. Low around 4. Wind chill values as low as -5. West wind 5 to 9 mph becoming light and variable. Chance of precipitation is 80%. New snow accumulation of 1 to 2 inches possible. Monday Partly sunny, with a high near 22. Wind chill values as low as -5. Northeast wind 5 to 9 mph. Monday Night Snow likely, mainly after 1am. Cloudy, with a low around 17. Southeast wind 10 to 15 mph. Chance of precipitation is 60%. Tuesday Snow. High near 31. Chance of precipitation is 80%. Tuesday Night Snow showers. Areas of blowing snow. Low around 9. Chance of precipitation is 80%. Wednesday Occasional snow. High near 11. Chance of precipitation is 80%. Wednesday Night Occasional snow. Low around -3. Chance of precipitation is 80%. Thursday Snow likely. Cloudy and cold, with a high near 9. Chance of precipitation is 70%. Thursday Night Snow likely. Cloudy, with a low around -2. Chance of precipitation is 70%. Friday Snow likely. Cloudy, with a high near 12. Chance of precipitation is 70%. Friday Night Snow likely. Cloudy, with a low around -2. Chance of precipitation is 60%. Saturday A chance of snow showers. Partly sunny, with a high near 15. Chance of precipitation is 30%. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthBuffaloSteve Posted January 26, 2019 Share Posted January 26, 2019 When was the last 20" event for KBUF? Jan (17.6") & Nov 2014 (16.9") were close. These are the top 24 hour snowfalls. So some multi day events may not be included... not sure exactly how we landed but this event should make the list... . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted January 26, 2019 Author Share Posted January 26, 2019 2 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said: Early thoughts on the LES potential Tuesday-Thursday? Increasingly unstably southwesterly flow follows the system into midweek, which looks to result in much more unstable profiles and additional gusty and snowy lake effect conditions beyond Tuesday as well. .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... The latest medium range models and ensembles continuing to advertise a true arctic blast Wednesday into Friday. 850 mb temperatures nearing -30C will cover much of the area through this time frame. Certainly record cold is a possibility within this airmass. Daytime high temperatures only in the single digits with overnight lows below zero. Brisk winds during this time frame will certainly produce dangerously cold wind chills for an extended period. Additionally, this airmass will certainly bring the potential for lake effect snow downwind of the lakes, although with an airmass this cold and dry it may limit really significant accumulations. The greater concern may be the potential for significant blowing and drifting with gusty winds and a fine, powdery snow in this frigid airmass. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted January 26, 2019 Author Share Posted January 26, 2019 2 minutes ago, SouthBuffaloSteve said: These are the top 24 hour snowfalls. So some multi day events may not be included... not sure exactly how we landed but this event should make the list... . It's been 13 years since we've made that list. Unreal. It's been a southtown special for the last decade. Actually that list is 8 years old. There's been quite a few more added to that list. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 26, 2019 Share Posted January 26, 2019 Too add to BUFF Here is the Hazardous Weather Outlook An extended period of severe winter conditons is expected Tuesday night through Friday. Extremely cold air will build down into the region with dangerously cold wind chills expected during this period. Accumulating, possibly significant lake effect snow is possible east of Lake Ontario during this period. Strong gusty winds will likely cause periods of significant blowing and drifting snow along with poor visibility. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted January 26, 2019 Author Share Posted January 26, 2019 @SouthBuffaloSteve Is there an updated list of Buffalos largest snowfalls? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted January 26, 2019 Author Share Posted January 26, 2019 .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... ...Severe winter conditons expected during this period... While the exact details on potential lake effect snow accumulations during this period still need to be worked out, predictability remains very high on the outbreak of a significant intrusion of arctic air and potential record cold during the mid to late week period. The polar low making its way down from central Canada will set up a 487 dm circulation at 500 mb centered near Lake Superior Wednesday morning eventually rotating into Quebec Thursday and Friday. The resulting low level thermal trough is shown by nearly all medium range models to have 850 mb temperature down to near -30C during the peak of the outbreak from Wednesday afternoon through Thursday morning. Record cold is certainly a possibility. Daytime high temperatures only in the single digits with overnight lows below zero. Brisk winds during this time frame will certainly produce very dangerous wind chills for an extended period with extreme winds chills of -20F to -40F. As stated above, the finer details of the lake effect snow impacts should come into better focus as we get closer. While accumulating snow looks likely, a greater concern may be the potential for significant blowing and drifting with gusty winds and a fine, powdery snow in this frigid airmass. Some moderation is expected Friday and especially Saturday as the polar low retreats northward. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 26, 2019 Share Posted January 26, 2019 GFS coming in wet for mon/tue.. NWS still not buying it lol At least south of the "North country".. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted January 26, 2019 Author Share Posted January 26, 2019 After this cold it does look to get warmer. Think we are in store for a roller coaster pattern. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 26, 2019 Share Posted January 26, 2019 Forecast is not even that cold next week lol I just had two -10F last week.. -2 to -3 lol Thats a warmup.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted January 26, 2019 Author Share Posted January 26, 2019 Just now, wolfie09 said: Forecast is not even that cold next week lol I just had two -10F last week.. -2 to -3 lol Thats a warmup.. Idk bro. This is the coldest air of the season Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted January 26, 2019 Author Share Posted January 26, 2019 That is -30 below normal, it broke the scale. I've never seen that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted January 26, 2019 Author Share Posted January 26, 2019 Fresh snowcover and that airmass should equate to -30s in Tug region. (inland) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 26, 2019 Share Posted January 26, 2019 Yea at 850 but surface temps are a bit underwelming according to the NWS.. I have hit those projected lows many times this year.. Maybe NWS trends colder as we get closer.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted January 26, 2019 Author Share Posted January 26, 2019 Latest GFS run shows a strong band of LES on SW flow Weds-Fri. Lake will likely be completely frozen over by Friday. But with those temps and that band it has some serious potential. Especially for the tug region as Ontario doesn't freeze. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted January 26, 2019 Author Share Posted January 26, 2019 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted January 26, 2019 Author Share Posted January 26, 2019 That’s 1-2’ for Erie and 3-4’ for tug Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-WXFREAK Posted January 26, 2019 Share Posted January 26, 2019 No cold intrusions will lock and hold, all transient! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 26, 2019 Share Posted January 26, 2019 If your ever looking for a place just outside the tug , i would recommend the "tailwater lodge Altmar, tapestry collection by Hilton".. Great food (restaurant on site) and reasonably priced.. 10 min west your in pulaski/I-81 for more food/shopping options, 5-10 miles east and your in the sothern tug.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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