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Upstate/Eastern New York

BuffaloWeather

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OSUmetstud

OSUmetstud

Posted
Posted
16 minutes ago, WNash said:

We’re right at the northern edge and have maybe 2”, with light snow falling. I think the strong stuff is downtown towards Harris Hill (including the airport of course). Still think it will settle on the southtowns, but there won’t be residence in one part of the metro long enough to get warning totals.

It looks like ski country might be under the gun after this morning, then it lifts north into metro again tonight. 

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CNY-WXFREAK

CNY-WXFREAK

Posted
Posted

I know everyone is in LES track mode and I wish I was but this is a traditional LES event with a W to WSWerly wind flow, so congrats to all who get pegged in WNY and North of me.  As you are tracking the LE I'm tracking a system for Mon-Tue of next week basically its on all guidance with basically a snowstorm on the Euro and a rain storm on some of the other guidance, so at this point its a toss-up but if it were to be snow, then you guys who get crushed today and tonight are going to begin building a glacier, lol!

This is a definite chaser for sure and I wish I had a better vehicle or I would in a heart beat!  Wolfie, I think your gonna get hit big time later this evening into tonight with easily 2-3'/hr rates embedded within an area of 2"/hr rates and around that a 1"/hr rates and so on so I predict this band will be a very wide, at least 20-30  miles wide as it has virtually the whole length of the lake then on top of this,. its gonna have Huron and Michigan to seed it big time :thumbsup:!!  What an event, as I don't see any real caveats at this point but as LES goes, that could change, but unlikely.  I may have to ride up before hand, since its a Friday, chill at a bar in Pulaski and throw back a few at the Lake Effect Lounge and enjoy it as I think I'd be able to head South of there without any issues, if not I grab a room, lol!  I feel sorry for whoever hits this band while driving home later today from work or even heading to work!  First real big one of the season so enjoy guys as you've waited long enough, MATT!! 

Off of Lake Ontario, the cold front will move east of Lake Ontario
through this morning and a similar wind field will move across the
eastern lake producing lake effect snow across the northern portion
of Jefferson and Lewis counties through the morning commute. The
lake band will become better organized and drop south through the
mid-afternoon and focus on the Tug Hill. Initially snowfall rates of
up to 1 in/hr will be possible across the northern portion of
Jefferson and Lewis counties, but as the band becomes better
organized, rates will increase to 1-2 in/hr. Across the Tug Hill
enhancement from terrain will help with increased snow rates of
up to 2 in/hr, with some 3 in/hr rates possible at times. Some
guidance is suggesting a three lake connection for a few hours
late this afternoon into the evening between Lake Superior, Lake
Huron and Lake Ontario, further aiding in heavy lake snows over
the Tug Hill.

Tonight, heavy lake effect snow from a well organized lake band will
continue across the southern half of Jefferson, Northern Oswego and
Central Lewis counties. During this time, snowfall rates of 1-2
in/hr will be common, with some areas under the heaviest part of the
snow band receiving snowfall rates of up to 3 in/hr at times. Snow
amounts will be greatest along the northern portion of the Tug Hill
and the southern third of Jefferson County, where amounts
approaching 2 feet is expected.

Then we get this courtesy of the EURO as its the best looking representation of what I think will occur but all globals have it as well for the same time frame so....

557646290_download(19).thumb.png.2bffbba694fdae6de73bd30d1d35ec1a.png

253040483_download(20).thumb.png.cc4d05aa621d978a453474f317808850.png

And yes, I used the Kuchera clown maps, cause they definitely apply, RLMAO!!

87062957_download(21).thumb.png.ff26b7929f6e1e42b22506919f0c7dd6.png

 

So all the locations that are getting the middle finger by the LES Gods, including me, need to start rooting for this next event cause it's seriously the only thing of not the next week or more. 

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Thinksnow18

Thinksnow18

Posted
Posted
9 minutes ago, CNY-WXFREAK said:

I know everyone is in LES track mode and I wish I was but this is a traditional LES event with a W to WSWerly wind flow, so congrats to all who get pegged in WNY and North of me.  As you are tracking the LE I'm tracking a system for Mon-Tue of next week basically its on all guidance with basically a snowstorm on the Euro and a rain storm on some of the other guidance, so at this point its a toss-up but if it were to be snow, then you guys who get crushed today and tonight are going to begin building a glacier, lol!

This is a definite chaser for sure and I wish I had a better vehicle or I would in a heart beat!  Wolfie, I think your gonna get hit big time later this evening into tonight with easily 2-3'/hr rates embedded within an area of 2"/hr rates and around that a 1"/hr rates and so on so I predict this band will be a very wide, at least 20-30  miles wide as it has virtually the whole length of the lake then on top of this,. its gonna have Huron and Michigan to seed it big time :thumbsup:!!  What an event, as I don't see any real caveats at this point but as LES goes, that could change, but unlikely.  I may have to ride up before hand, since its a Friday, chill at a bar in Pulaski and throw back a few at the Lake Effect Lounge and enjoy it as I think I'd be able to head South of there without any issues, if not I grab a room, lol!  I feel sorry for whoever hits this band while driving home later today from work or even heading to work!  First real big one of the season so enjoy guys as you've waited long enough, MATT!! 


Off of Lake Ontario, the cold front will move east of Lake Ontario
through this morning and a similar wind field will move across the
eastern lake producing lake effect snow across the northern portion
of Jefferson and Lewis counties through the morning commute. The
lake band will become better organized and drop south through the
mid-afternoon and focus on the Tug Hill. Initially snowfall rates of
up to 1 in/hr will be possible across the northern portion of
Jefferson and Lewis counties, but as the band becomes better
organized, rates will increase to 1-2 in/hr. Across the Tug Hill
enhancement from terrain will help with increased snow rates of
up to 2 in/hr, with some 3 in/hr rates possible at times. Some
guidance is suggesting a three lake connection for a few hours
late this afternoon into the evening between Lake Superior, Lake
Huron and Lake Ontario, further aiding in heavy lake snows over
the Tug Hill.

Tonight, heavy lake effect snow from a well organized lake band will
continue across the southern half of Jefferson, Northern Oswego and
Central Lewis counties. During this time, snowfall rates of 1-2
in/hr will be common, with some areas under the heaviest part of the
snow band receiving snowfall rates of up to 3 in/hr at times. Snow
amounts will be greatest along the northern portion of the Tug Hill
and the southern third of Jefferson County, where amounts
approaching 2 feet is expected.

Then we get this courtesy of the EURO as its the best looking representation of what I think will occur but all globals have it as well for the same time frame so....

557646290_download(19).thumb.png.2bffbba694fdae6de73bd30d1d35ec1a.png

253040483_download(20).thumb.png.cc4d05aa621d978a453474f317808850.png

And yes, I used the Kuchera clown maps, cause they definitely apply, RLMAO!!

87062957_download(21).thumb.png.ff26b7929f6e1e42b22506919f0c7dd6.png

 

So all the locations that are getting the middle finger by the LES Gods, including me, need to start rooting for this next event cause it's seriously the only thing of not the next week or more. 

Good write up Freak! I have also had my eye on this storm for a couple days and to this time king Euro has held strong in it's track and giving us a decent punch...could be a general 6 to 10" snow from that storm.

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CNY-WXFREAK

CNY-WXFREAK

Posted
Posted

Has anyone looked at the GFS, lol, as I don't think it got the memo on the incoming cold, lol.  It's downright balmy the last week of the run and the first 10 days aren't that exciting except for the Tug and the hills South of Kbuf so..........  I don't like Dry and cold and if that's the forecast, then it light as well be 50's and Sunny so I can get a bit of Vitamin D!

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CNY-WXFREAK

CNY-WXFREAK

Posted
Posted

Listen, we just went through a nice event with Harper so there should be no whining in this sub at all.  We at least have a few events to watch and track but think about the MA and the NE folks as their hurting big time but they've been getting love from the snow Gods for a decade straight, or so it seems, with countless Blizzards.  NWS in Tauton actually made it seem like blizzards are common place in New England, lol, yeah right!

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Thinksnow18

Thinksnow18

Posted
Posted
11 minutes ago, Buffalo Bumble said:

Couple inches here overnight. Looks like Hamburg to Colden getting pounded. BUF Weather probably out doing snow angels as I type this. 

Wow there must have been an odd cutoff south last night...are you in the City? I have almost 6" now after the last 1/2" came through about 45 minutes ago in Williamsville. 

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Buffalo Bumble

Buffalo Bumble

Posted
Posted
30 minutes ago, Thinksnow18 said:

Wow there must have been an odd cutoff south last night...are you in the City? I have almost 6" now after the last 1/2" came through about 45 minutes ago in Williamsville. 

I’m in Snyder, just west of the village of Williamsville. So yeah, probably outside the band last night by about 2,000 feet...

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ayuud11

ayuud11

Posted
Posted
17 minutes ago, CNY-LES FREAK said:

The stretch of 90 from 298 in Syracuse All the Way pass Utica is being affected by the Lake Erie band, Imagine that! That's about a hundred and forty miles away from you guys in Buffalo and underneath that band it's probably snowing 2in/hr easy.

Sent from my SM-G930V using Tapatalk
 

Gotta love high winds, ROC almost had a foot once from an Erie band!

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SouthBuffaloSteve

SouthBuffaloSteve

Posted
Posted
6 minutes ago, Thinksnow18 said:

I have noticed the band over the Eastern end if the lake being replaced by a new band that has a more northern component. With the new band it's snowing on the fringes of Fort Erie in Ontario which in that trajectory would put the southern part of the metro back in play.

Yeah almost look like dual bands trying to get going back over the middle of the lake. Maybe not heavy rates in it yet but at least something heading back our way.  Another hour of light and should be able to get a nice overhead view of the lake finally after the days of cloud cover.   

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BuffaloWeather

BuffaloWeather

Posted
  • Author
Posted
1 minute ago, wolfie09 said:

Those damn Canadians eh..

Really nailed this one eh

Even the global had a mostly SW/WSW flow eh

Better luck next time eh

They probably do better with lake effect because half the lake is theirs lol eh

 Yeah, that band last night went 15 miles further north than any of the models showed. Just goes to show you its almost impossible to predict LES bands. Right now there are 2 bands off of Erie likely due to high wind and shear that the models also didn't show. 

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