Upstate/Eastern New York

[BuffaloWeather]

Definitely an underwhelming year for Redfield so far.

 

[TugHillMatt]

17 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said:

Definitely an underwhelming year for Redfield so far.

 

It has been pretty lame. I know 125 inches sounds like lots of snow...but it doesn't even seem like we have had that much with the thaws every single week.

[BuffaloWeather]

1 minute ago, TugHillMatt said:

It has been pretty lame. I know 125 inches sounds like lots of snow...but it doesn't even seem like we have had that much with the thaws every single week.

Yeah last year I think Redfield was close to 300" by this time. Losing December and first 2 weeks of January is almost impossible to come back from. 

[TugHillMatt]

1 minute ago, BuffaloWeather said:

Yeah last year I think Redfield was close to 300" by this time. Losing December and first 2 weeks of January is almost impossible to come back from. 

Yeah, I feel bad because I know I have been whining about it on here. More so disappointed...but I still haven't seen my yard since November 8th!

[mfgmfg]

Getting some lake effect snow here in Rome (I think). Big snowflakes.

[SouthBuffaloSteve]

Nothing better than watching one of these bands forming out over the lake!

Time for some storm beverages and hopefully the start of some snow! Cheers!



.

[SouthBuffaloSteve]

Nice AFD from BUF! Satellite estimates of a warm patch in Lake Erie at 38* still? That’s a curveball!

Although cold air advection will weaken some, delta T`s reach 13
degrees by Friday morning with 850mb temperatures dropping to -14C.
Satellite estimates a "warm" patch of water on Lake Erie of near 38
deg F near Long Point. Low pressure will track from Lake Superior to
Georgian Bay overnight and a cold front will move across Lake Erie.
This shift in the wind will produce a lake response with lake effect
snow showers beginning across western NY. This front will likely
produce a light snow across the region while a lake band forms on a
250-260 wind along the Lake Erie shoreline into southern Erie and
into Wyoming and Genesee counties overnight and be south of the City
of Buffalo by the Friday morning rush hour, with the northern edge
of the band producing at least light snow over parts of the Buffalo
Metro. Snow will become heavy at times with snow rates 1 in/hr with
localized amounts of up to 2 in/hr. This band will slowly move
southward into the Southtowns and extreme northern Chautauqua and
Cattaraugus counties through the morning. The band will likely lose
some intensity as mid-level moisture diminishes however snow will
continue.


.

[BuffaloWeather]

3 minutes ago, SouthBuffaloSteve said:

Nice AFD from BUF! Satellite estimates of a warm patch in Lake Erie at 38* still? That’s a curveball!

Although cold air advection will weaken some, delta T`s reach 13
degrees by Friday morning with 850mb temperatures dropping to -14C.
Satellite estimates a "warm" patch of water on Lake Erie of near 38
deg F near Long Point. Low pressure will track from Lake Superior to
Georgian Bay overnight and a cold front will move across Lake Erie.
This shift in the wind will produce a lake response with lake effect
snow showers beginning across western NY. This front will likely
produce a light snow across the region while a lake band forms on a
250-260 wind along the Lake Erie shoreline into southern Erie and
into Wyoming and Genesee counties overnight and be south of the City
of Buffalo by the Friday morning rush hour, with the northern edge
of the band producing at least light snow over parts of the Buffalo
Metro. Snow will become heavy at times with snow rates 1 in/hr with
localized amounts of up to 2 in/hr. This band will slowly move
southward into the Southtowns and extreme northern Chautauqua and
Cattaraugus counties through the morning. The band will likely lose
some intensity as mid-level moisture diminishes however snow will
continue.


.

That band means business. Total whiteout along the 190

[SouthBuffaloSteve]

Just now, BuffaloWeather said:

That band means business. Total whiteout along the 190

Just about to get into here in the next few minutes wind is freaking roaring through.  

[OSUmetstud]

14 minutes ago, SouthBuffaloSteve said:

Nice AFD from BUF! Satellite estimates of a warm patch in Lake Erie at 38* still? That’s a curveball!

Although cold air advection will weaken some, delta T`s reach 13
degrees by Friday morning with 850mb temperatures dropping to -14C.
Satellite estimates a "warm" patch of water on Lake Erie of near 38
deg F near Long Point. Low pressure will track from Lake Superior to
Georgian Bay overnight and a cold front will move across Lake Erie.
This shift in the wind will produce a lake response with lake effect
snow showers beginning across western NY. This front will likely
produce a light snow across the region while a lake band forms on a
250-260 wind along the Lake Erie shoreline into southern Erie and
into Wyoming and Genesee counties overnight and be south of the City
of Buffalo by the Friday morning rush hour, with the northern edge
of the band producing at least light snow over parts of the Buffalo
Metro. Snow will become heavy at times with snow rates 1 in/hr with
localized amounts of up to 2 in/hr. This band will slowly move
southward into the Southtowns and extreme northern Chautauqua and
Cattaraugus counties through the morning. The band will likely lose
some intensity as mid-level moisture diminishes however snow will
continue.


.

Cool. 

[BuffaloWeather]

1 minute ago, OSUmetstud said:

Cool. 

This is awesome, Any link so I can save it. 

[BuffaloWeather]

I'm not going to be able to sleep with that band off Erie, its cranking 2"+ per hour right now.

[BuffaloWeather]

[BuffaloWeather]

Tempted to go late night chasing have to work 10 hours tomorrow though. 

[OSUmetstud]

1 minute ago, BuffaloWeather said:

This is awesome, Any link so I can save it. 

https://www.tidesandcurrents.noaa.gov/ofs/ofs_animation.shtml?ofsregion=le&subdomain=0&model_type=wtemp_nowcast

https://www.weather.gov/cle/GreatLakesIce_Analysis

[southbuffalowx]

What's your guys thoughts on how the radar looks upstream in Cleveland? Are the winds really already shifting West out there? Or are we going to be in for a lakeshore hugger throughout the night?

[ayuud11]

Almost whiteout conditions here in Cheektowaga, I’m loving the look of this already..

[Vicarious]

7 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said:

Tempted to go late night chasing have to work 10 hours tomorrow though. 

situations like this are perfect to chase. Hardly anyone on the road and you aren't going to be in anyone's way . I personally don't like it when people are out chasing and adding to gridlock which isn't a issue today.I'd suffer through work because it doesn't get much better

[ayuud11]

Just now, southbuffalowx said:

What's your guys thoughts on how the radar looks upstream in Cleveland? Are the winds really already shifting West out there? Or are we going to be in for a lakeshore hugger throughout the night?

This band won’t be going anywhere anytime soon at least not for couple hrs..

[BuffaloWeather]

2 minutes ago, southbuffalowx said:

What's your guys thoughts on how the radar looks upstream in Cleveland? Are the winds really already shifting West out there? Or are we going to be in for a lakeshore hugger throughout the night?

The models tonight went further south then they were the previous 2-3 days. Surprised its so far north already, but Buf NWS mentions the 250-260 flow which is a southtown hitter (usually)

[BuffaloWeather]

Best LES band off of Erie of the season comes on 1/25. Who would have thought. 

[ayuud11]

The 0z models have the band off by 20 miles at least since they started it at central erie rather than where it s at right now.

[southbuffalowx]

4 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said:

The models tonight went further south then they were the previous 2-3 days. Surprised its so far north already, but Buf NWS mentions the 250-260 flow which is a southtown hitter (usually)

As of right now it seems I'm right on the southern edge, since it's kinda alternating between lighter and heavier snow. Hopefully that model bias holds true for tomorrow afternoon and I get square in the center of the band, instead of the further southtowns. 

Just goes to show just how hard it is to forecast LES, which is definitely part of the beauty!

[ayuud11]

6 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said:

Best LES band off of Erie of the season comes on 1/25. Who would have thought. 

Pouring snow atm prolly close to 2”/hr rates!

[BuffaloWeather]

It's awesome to finally see a strong band this year. There are some 3" per hour rates in there I bet. I hope the band widens some and hits central erie into tomorrow night. Would be some 2' totals. 

 

[BuffaloWeather]

You can actually see lake Michigan feeding the Erie band. That's a first. 

[BuffaloWeather]

...A BAND OF HEAVY LAKE EFFECT SNOW WILL AFFECT NORTHERN ERIE AND
WESTERN GENESEE COUNTIES...

At 1252 AM EST, A band of lake effect snow producing snow fall rates
of 2 inches per hour will continue to impact the Buffalo Metro Area
and western Genesee County through 2 AM.

Winds in excess of 30 mph are possible with this band of lake effect
snow, producing near whiteout conditions at times. If you must
travel within this band, be prepared for severe winter driving
conditions with very low visibility and snow covered roads.

[BuffaloWeather]

Definitely 2-3" per hour

[lakeeffectkid383]

You can't make this stuff up. I'm actually too far SOUTH to get anything other than light snow right now. Few miles north of me is getting pounded however the band is definitley reorienting itself to set up further south however it's definitley gonna make a quick sweep through here and then set up further south from Hamburg to the south so we'll be lucky if we catch 30 min of heavy snow as the band "transitions" from north to south. This is unreal how we always get screwed from South Buffalo to West Seneca with these bands that just swing through and are too far north or south to ever be in the good snow (and I know 2010,2014 happened, that's about it). Amherst, Tonawanda, Williamsville all probably see 3-6" while we will be lucky to catch 1-2" while the band swings through then it should set up over Hamburg to the south and drop 8-12"+ . What a fricken joke. I need to move from West Seneca ASAP! Lol.

[WNash]

9 minutes ago, WesterlyWx said:

You can't make this stuff up. I'm actually too far SOUTH to get anything other than light snow right now. Few miles north of me is getting pounded however the band is definitley reorienting itself to set up further south however it's definitley gonna make a quick sweep through here and then set up further south from Hamburg to the south so we'll be lucky if we catch 30 min of heavy snow as the band "transitions" from north to south. This is unreal how we always get screwed from South Buffalo to West Seneca with these bands that just swing through and are too far north or south to ever be in the good snow (and I know 2010,2014 happened, that's about it). Amherst, Tonawanda, Williamsville all probably see 3-6" while we will be lucky to catch 1-2" while the band swings through then it should set up over Hamburg to the south and drop 8-12"+ . What a fricken joke. I need to move from West Seneca ASAP! Lol.

We’re right at the northern edge and have maybe 2”, with light snow falling. I think the strong stuff is downtown towards Harris Hill (including the airport of course). Still think it will settle on the southtowns, but there won’t be residence in one part of the metro long enough to get warning totals.