BuffaloWeather Posted January 24, 2019 Author Share Posted January 24, 2019 That’s a foot at 1:10 only through. Saturday for southtowns. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted January 24, 2019 Share Posted January 24, 2019 50 to 60 degree temperature rises in a day... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted January 24, 2019 Share Posted January 24, 2019 Whew...the NAM 3K sure does show "several feet" for the Tug........... Every snow event here has underperformed since after Thanksgiving. Yup, gonna keep whining, cuz this winter is stupid. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthBuffaloSteve Posted January 24, 2019 Share Posted January 24, 2019 RDPS is a central Erie lock as well! BW looks like your gonna jackpot on this one!. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted January 24, 2019 Author Share Posted January 24, 2019 18 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said: Yeah the highest rates I’ve ever seen was Nemo here in CT. Truly extraordinary. I like being out in the elements as well, but not on the road where I know people are ridiculous and I haven’t had a lot of hazardous wx driving experience. I like setting up shop in a location and doing long walks. For me it’s incredibly relaxing mentally with all the physical challenge you could ask for. I chased that big January 2018 blizzard in Ocean City, MD and the mile walk I took was the most grueling thing I ever did. So much fun. This summer I did a long walk in an 111 heat index. Great, but snow is better lol. Agree. Jeb walks are the best way to enjoy the elements. I do quite a bit of cross country skiing too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted January 24, 2019 Author Share Posted January 24, 2019 22 minutes ago, SouthBuffaloSteve said: RDPS is a central Erie lock as well! BW looks like your gonna jackpot on this one! . A shame I chased that one event in perrysburg and the rates were garbage. The only good band was that one in November over Springville. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted January 24, 2019 Share Posted January 24, 2019 Time for me to test out my new LL Bean snowshoes! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 24, 2019 Share Posted January 24, 2019 Euro continues with it's mostly WSW flow.. Nam more "Westerly" as well.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 24, 2019 Share Posted January 24, 2019 Same goes for the ukmet.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-WXFREAK Posted January 24, 2019 Share Posted January 24, 2019 No one else knew about the 3" deluge we just received? Gotta love when they say rain, and it turns into a flooding rn, unreal, but when its supposed to snow heavy, we get pixie dust for flakes, lol! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 24, 2019 Share Posted January 24, 2019 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Vicarious Posted January 24, 2019 Share Posted January 24, 2019 Watch has been updated for all of Erie county Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 24, 2019 Share Posted January 24, 2019 Funny how the NWS put kfzy at the high end but almost nowhere else off Ontario.. Expected snow here is 6"-8" but a high of 12"-18" lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 24, 2019 Share Posted January 24, 2019 Another synoptic system will cross the area late Monday through Tuesday. Model guidance continues to show a variety of track solutions with this system. Some runs, including the 00Z GFS and GEM take the low center to the north and west of our region, which would bring a brief warm-up and possible mixed precipitation or even rain to our region. The ECMWF on the other hand takes a more southern track, which would keep our area all snow. If the more southern track verifies this system could be a respectable snow producer for our region. Regardless of the eventual track of this system, model guidance remains in good agreement in bringing another strong push of true arctic air into the Great Lakes and New England for the second half of next week. 850mb temps may bottom out at -30C, which would support near record cold across our region. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thinksnow18 Posted January 24, 2019 Share Posted January 24, 2019 29 minutes ago, wolfie09 said: Another synoptic system will cross the area late Monday through Tuesday. Model guidance continues to show a variety of track solutions with this system. Some runs, including the 00Z GFS and GEM take the low center to the north and west of our region, which would bring a brief warm-up and possible mixed precipitation or even rain to our region. The ECMWF on the other hand takes a more southern track, which would keep our area all snow. If the more southern track verifies this system could be a respectable snow producer for our region. Regardless of the eventual track of this system, model guidance remains in good agreement in bringing another strong push of true arctic air into the Great Lakes and New England for the second half of next week. 850mb temps may bottom out at -30C, which would support near record cold across our region. Come on Euro!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-WXFREAK Posted January 24, 2019 Share Posted January 24, 2019 I think KBUF goes back to their original thoughts with excluding Wayne and Monroe Counties cause I cant see how, except for the AF with snow showers likely with passage, but other than that, I don't see it, that's just me! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-WXFREAK Posted January 24, 2019 Share Posted January 24, 2019 1 hour ago, wolfie09 said: Funny how the NWS put kfzy at the high end but almost nowhere else off Ontario.. Expected snow here is 6"-8" but a high of 12"-18" lol Their just covering their asses is all, as they haven't got a clue though, really! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-WXFREAK Posted January 24, 2019 Share Posted January 24, 2019 Euro's respectable event for Tues-Wed of next week can get a bit interesting, It's not a huge snow producer for the area, but its the only model that stays primarilly snow for the event. I'd be more inclined to believe the Euro over other guidance when we're within 4days so its a lock that we see something for tues-wed but we just need others to follow suit, Here's the Euro and it doesn't look bad at all and I think the Euro is Waaaayyyyy off with its band placement as these band are not going steady state for more than 6hrs in any one area, now I know totals have went down by half in some places! Bands are just too transient for blockbuster totals but we'll see: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thinksnow18 Posted January 24, 2019 Share Posted January 24, 2019 Euro has been lock step with this system and I've watched the GFS do it's normal dance in placement. I tend to also agree with the Euro in a 4 to 5 day lead time as that is where it's sweet spot seems to be. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-WXFREAK Posted January 24, 2019 Share Posted January 24, 2019 I don't believe any of these models for this next little LE event so I wouldn't get your hopes up cause its a bad set-up and the reason being is the super transient nature of the bands as their super transient still and can't lock in for more than a few time! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthBuffaloSteve Posted January 24, 2019 Share Posted January 24, 2019 Snow pack is gone but boy did that changeover happen quick! It’s ripping outside this morning! HUGE flakes!!!. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthBuffaloSteve Posted January 24, 2019 Share Posted January 24, 2019 Pretty good Ice Jam on Caz this morning. Closing in on bank full.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thinksnow18 Posted January 24, 2019 Share Posted January 24, 2019 6 minutes ago, SouthBuffaloSteve said: Pretty good Ice Jam on Caz this morning. Closing in on bank full... . You know the forecast was a huge bust in a lot of ways yesterday...temps, precip amount, possible flooding from ice jams and runoff...not a good day yesterday for the meteorologists at the NWS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-WXFREAK Posted January 24, 2019 Share Posted January 24, 2019 126hr Euro much better SLP placement so I will side with the Euro for sure! I'll take the Euro for 1000 please! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lakeeffectkid383 Posted January 24, 2019 Share Posted January 24, 2019 8 minutes ago, SouthBuffaloSteve said: Pretty good Ice Jam on Caz this morning. Closing in on bank full... . Never thought anything of Ice Jams really till we met up and saw that huge one bust up right Beaneth the bridge we were on and it felt like an earthquake! Then we saw that jet ski get slammed up against the bridge! Definitley wasn’t expecting any ice jams at this time so kind of surprised to see this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 24, 2019 Share Posted January 24, 2019 I think the reason my NWS forecast is always so wrong is they use the Canadian way to much lol But never hear them mention the ukmet, do they not see verification.. With this event they mentioned the GFS/Nam/ggem but not the euro which is had the same wind direction for 3days now lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 24, 2019 Share Posted January 24, 2019 Those Europeans stick together... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 24, 2019 Share Posted January 24, 2019 The euro had lake effect from hour 150 till the end of it runs lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buffalo Bumble Posted January 24, 2019 Share Posted January 24, 2019 1 hour ago, SouthBuffaloSteve said: Snow pack is gone but boy did that changeover happen quick! It’s ripping outside this morning! HUGE flakes!!! . Held on to some snow cover here, and the heavy snow this morning is a nice refresher. Looks like about 2” so far, sticking to everything. Welcome back winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Syrmax Posted January 24, 2019 Share Posted January 24, 2019 3 hours ago, CNY-WXFREAK said: No one else knew about the 3" deluge we just received? Gotta love when they say rain, and it turns into a flooding rn, unreal, but when its supposed to snow heavy, we get pixie dust for flakes, lol! 0.50" in my rain gauge this a.m. snowcover down from 14" to 10". Still 41 degrees here this a.m. The snow has absorbed this pretty well but another day of 40 degrees will chomp into this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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