wolfie09 Posted January 22, 2019 Share Posted January 22, 2019 NWS better start paying attention to this lol Right now they have a few inches of snow and NO ice.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 22, 2019 Share Posted January 22, 2019 Over 1/2" ice on the 12k.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 22, 2019 Share Posted January 22, 2019 The ukmet which shows LES pretty well, looks good over the weekend.. Pops raised to 80%, lets see what can go wrong this one lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vortmax Posted January 22, 2019 Share Posted January 22, 2019 1" of fluff party night. Tea kettle I presume? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 22, 2019 Share Posted January 22, 2019 Euro has a moderate 4"-6" event with the secondary wave riding the front.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted January 22, 2019 Share Posted January 22, 2019 On 1/22/2019 at 11:02 AM, Thinksnow18 said: So I read the KBUF AFD this morning, specifically the long range for friday through next Monday. The discuss the perfect set up for cross polar air die to a +PNA and Greenland block supercharging the air as the PV drops to the northern Great Lakes! They state this will have lasting power through the foreseeable future too!!! Elaborate then why the next 3 systems after that all cut west of us giving us rain instead of snow?!?!?! Expand They dont mention a greenland block. They use the term ridge. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thinksnow18 Posted January 22, 2019 Share Posted January 22, 2019 Ok yes it says ridge, however it does say cross polar flow, staying power etc...how is all that possible when the models all show cutters? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 22, 2019 Share Posted January 22, 2019 I am not really seeing all these cutters in the LR lol 6z GFS had one like 260 hrs out lol GFS para had none . And the euro looked pretty darn good over the next 10 days, minus whatever slop we see Wednesday.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted January 22, 2019 Share Posted January 22, 2019 On 1/22/2019 at 2:07 PM, Thinksnow18 said: Ok yes it says ridge, however it does say cross polar flow, staying power etc...how is all that possible when the models all show cutters? Expand Cross polar flow via an -epo (alaska) block doesnt necessarily stop cutters. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted January 22, 2019 Share Posted January 22, 2019 On 1/22/2019 at 12:52 PM, vortmax said: 1" of fluff party night. Tea kettle I presume? Expand Yup Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted January 22, 2019 Share Posted January 22, 2019 Isnt there only really one cold front passage that im seeing for buf anyway? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 22, 2019 Share Posted January 22, 2019 Our nexxt potential region wide snowfall.. Euro looks pretty good with that feature at this lead time.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thinksnow18 Posted January 22, 2019 Share Posted January 22, 2019 On 1/22/2019 at 2:25 PM, OSUmetstud said: Isnt there only really one cold front passage that im seeing for buf anyway? Expand The 6z showed the LP for next week Tuesday which has been touted as an area to watch for significant snow potential suddenly shifted north of the CWA and we get rain...the 2 others after are also rain snow mixes...sadly everything between seems to get very cold but dry. Something to watch for sure. I see in wolfies post above the euro still has this opportunity...hopefully it's right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 22, 2019 Share Posted January 22, 2019 Even the euro has mixing for some for a very short period of time, exact track means everything even when it comes out of canada lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thinksnow18 Posted January 22, 2019 Share Posted January 22, 2019 On 1/22/2019 at 2:41 PM, wolfie09 said: Even the euro has mixing for some for a very short period of time, exact track means everything even when it comes out of canada lol Expand I guess I'm missing something. I figured with the PV so close to is that all systems out of Canada would be shunted far south and we'd end up frigid and dry...however the exact opposite seems to be occurring. I guess my rub is it can't be both ways, can it? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted January 22, 2019 Author Share Posted January 22, 2019 On 1/22/2019 at 2:51 PM, Thinksnow18 said: I guess I'm missing something. I figured with the PV so close to is that all systems out of Canada would be shunted far south and we'd end up frigid and dry...however the exact opposite seems to be occurring. I guess my rub is it can't be both ways, can it? Expand The PNA is going neutral/negative which could impact the track of these systems. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted January 22, 2019 Author Share Posted January 22, 2019 NAO going postitive. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 22, 2019 Share Posted January 22, 2019 Nam now getting into range, giving us a sneak peak at the start of the lake effect event.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thinksnow18 Posted January 22, 2019 Share Posted January 22, 2019 On 1/22/2019 at 3:20 PM, BuffaloWeather said: NAO going postitive. Expand I get it so im guessing with this afternoons update the wording will shift immensely. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted January 22, 2019 Author Share Posted January 22, 2019 On 1/22/2019 at 3:21 PM, wolfie09 said: Nam now getting into range, giving us a sneak peak at the start of the lake effect event.. Expand Looks westerly then transitions sw late Friday/Saturday then back westerly. Looks good for the tug. Especially Matt Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted January 22, 2019 Author Share Posted January 22, 2019 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted January 22, 2019 Share Posted January 22, 2019 On 1/22/2019 at 3:33 PM, Thinksnow18 said: I get it so im guessing with this afternoons update the wording will shift immensely. Expand Why? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DeltaT13 Posted January 22, 2019 Share Posted January 22, 2019 Next two weeks look absolutely abysmal from a synoptic standpoint. Rainstorm after rainstorm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted January 22, 2019 Share Posted January 22, 2019 On 1/22/2019 at 5:03 PM, DeltaT13 said: Next two weeks look absolutely abysmal from a synoptic standpoint. Rainstorm after rainstorm. Expand Yeah. Youre wrong. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DeltaT13 Posted January 22, 2019 Share Posted January 22, 2019 On 1/22/2019 at 5:08 PM, OSUmetstud said: Yeah. Youre wrong. Expand I'll say two things. One I will be uncharacteristically emotional about the next two weeks because I have a very long and very expensive snowboarding trip booked from February 2nd through February 10th in the 'dacks and vermont; and right now the long range is simply not looking good. You can't dispute that there are rainstorms on the long range and to be honest the long range forecasts have been very consistent and solid so far this year. Most storms that appear at day 10 more or less pan out. Two, why exactly am I wrong? Give me some hope because all I see is a progressive pattern that fails to lock in any cold for the Northeast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thinksnow18 Posted January 22, 2019 Share Posted January 22, 2019 On 1/22/2019 at 5:01 PM, OSUmetstud said: Why? Expand Because the NWS in Buffalo is painting a more long term cold for the forseeable future. And right now that clearly isn't the case. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted January 22, 2019 Share Posted January 22, 2019 On 1/22/2019 at 5:11 PM, DeltaT13 said: I'll say two things. One I will be uncharacteristically emotional about the next two weeks because I have a very long and very expensive snowboarding trip booked from February 2nd through February 10th in the 'dacks and vermont; and right now the long range is simply not looking good. You can't dispute that there are rainstorms on the long range and to be honest the long range forecasts have been very consistent and solid so far this year. Most storms that appear at day 10 more or less pan out. Two, why exactly am I wrong? Give me some hope because all I see is a progressive pattern that fails to lock in any cold for the Northeast. Expand Lol. It amazes me someone can look at the pattern being progged and assume rainstorm after rainstorm for two weeks. Enjoy being emotional. Didnt you give up on the last storm a day or two beforehand? The one that gave you almost 18 inches? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DeltaT13 Posted January 22, 2019 Share Posted January 22, 2019 "Lol. It amazes me someone can look at the pattern being progged and assume rainstorm after rainstorm for two weeks. Enjoy being emotional. Didnt you give up on the last storm a day or two beforehand? The one that gave you almost 18 inches?" This is a new and interesting side of you.....way to be a dick. I certainly did not give up on the last system but when half the models were caving towards a southern solution for a couple days I certainly was disheartened just like the rest of us. To be honest, I called for 12 inches in Rochester MANY days in advance and guess how many inches Rochester got, 12 inches on the ****ing money! (Don't believe the airports notoriously bogus ASOS, it always comes in high) My Buffalo, Rochester, Syracuse numbers were damn near spot on. I never once bought into the hype of the Kuchera clown maps. I expected it to be a decent storm and maintained course for the most part. And aside from some isolated locations on the South shore, the lake response was anemic at best. I got a whopping 3 inches of Lake effect in 36 hours which was more or less exactly what I foresaw. All I can do is look at model outputs and I don't see a great pattern ahead, I see 4 rain chances in the next 384 hours. Wouldn't it be nice and more normal to see zero rain chances during what should be the coldest stretch of the season? Getting rain two days after being subzero is not a good pattern to be in. I hope I'm wrong and look like a fool, that would be the best possible outcome. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthBuffaloSteve Posted January 22, 2019 Share Posted January 22, 2019 Great sunrise today! Anyone else catch it? If I wasn’t running late to work I would have pulled over somewhere for a better picture... you know what they say about red sky at sunrise.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthBuffaloSteve Posted January 22, 2019 Share Posted January 22, 2019 Mike is pretty locked in on the idea of the metro getting in on some good lake effect for at least a portion of the weekend!. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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