BuffaloWeather Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 The entire region is under a Winter Storm Watch. The upcoming 5-6 weeks look extremely promising for winter lovers. A deep longwave through over the entire region can be expected in the extended. This will likely deliver multiple episodes of synoptic, lake enhance and lake effect snow. I have never seen this from the CFS, has to be the first time since 2014 winter? The PV has broken into 3 pieces and one of those pieces will be stuck in between 2 ridges in Alaska and Greenland. It's a perfect setup for snow and cold for the great lakes and northeast. Exciting times ahead! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted January 18, 2019 Author Share Posted January 18, 2019 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted January 18, 2019 Author Share Posted January 18, 2019 Picked up 2” of snow last night. Surprised when I woke up this morning Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted January 18, 2019 Author Share Posted January 18, 2019 Looks like a rainer for the next system on Weds/Thursday. Can expect a slight trend southeast, it moves in and out pretty quick with a chance of lake effect snow behind it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 19, 2019 Share Posted January 19, 2019 I think after the front moves through we have a storm move up the coast somewhere.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 19, 2019 Share Posted January 19, 2019 Could start to see some more west-wsw/sw events if the euro is to be believed or at least i can hope lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 19, 2019 Share Posted January 19, 2019 Just miss out on a big one at the end of the month.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted January 19, 2019 Share Posted January 19, 2019 Lots of time. Lots of potential Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 20, 2019 Share Posted January 20, 2019 Look at the GFS ahead of the cutter/front .lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 20, 2019 Share Posted January 20, 2019 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 20, 2019 Share Posted January 20, 2019 Euro also had a couple inches out in front but more on the backside as we flip back to snow.. Something to keep an eye on at least. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 20, 2019 Share Posted January 20, 2019 Fingers crossed Matt Behind this potential system, it will turn steadily colder Friday and Saturday. A mid level trough and associated cold front will cross the area Friday with a chance of snow showers. Westerly flow may develop Friday night and Saturday in the wake of this trough, with increasing lake effect snow potential east of the lakes. Temperatures will be well below average again by next weekend Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted January 21, 2019 Author Share Posted January 21, 2019 I'm not sure how anyone can like this cold. Already at 1 degree. Can't feel my fingers in minutes outside, hurts to breath. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lakeeffectkid383 Posted January 21, 2019 Share Posted January 21, 2019 Awesome out right now. Super fine light snow and -2 degrees with a 15mph gusting to 26mph wind creating a windchill of -27!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lakeeffectkid383 Posted January 21, 2019 Share Posted January 21, 2019 22 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said: I'm not sure how anyone can like this cold. Already at 1 degree. Can't feel my fingers in minutes outside, hurts to breath. I hate the cold but as long as I don’t have to be in it for long it’s a cool experience. I could do the hot water to instant ice trick 100 times and it never gets old! Haha. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lakeeffectkid383 Posted January 21, 2019 Share Posted January 21, 2019 What’s impressive to me is usually when we’re this cold it’s dead calm out no winds with completely clear skies not snow falling and 26mph gust!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted January 21, 2019 Author Share Posted January 21, 2019 4 minutes ago, WesterlyWx said: I hate the cold but as long as I don’t have to be in it for long it’s a cool experience. I could do the hot water to instant ice trick 100 times and it never gets old! Haha. Not me bro. It’s my least favorite weather event. If I never see a temp below 10 again I’ll be happy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-LES FREAK Posted January 21, 2019 Share Posted January 21, 2019 I'm not sure how anyone can like this cold. Already at 1 degree. Can't feel my fingers in minutes outside, hurts to breath. It's the best feeling in the world to take a deep breath in subzero temp. You can almost feel your lungs get cold, lol. - 4F sustained winds of 18-23mph making the windchill -20's to 30f sometimes which is just stupid cold but I still love it bn nonetheless!Sent from my SM-G930V using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 21, 2019 Share Posted January 21, 2019 Made it down to -10 last night, currently sitting at -8° with snow showers... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 21, 2019 Share Posted January 21, 2019 Euro still has a "favorable" west-wsw flow for Friday/Saturday.. Doesn't look like it would last long as we have several northern stream disturbances riding through the flow.. Late Thursday night and Friday a strong mid level trough and associated surface low/cold front will cross the region, marking the leading edge of the return to much colder temperatures. This system will bring a chance of snow showers areawide, with potential for lake enhancement east of the lakes. The cold becomes well established by the weekend. Model guidance begins to diverge with the handling of clipper shortwaves moving through the mean longwave trough, but in a general sense one or two weak systems will continue to support light snow chances through the weekend. There may also be lake effect potential next weekend, although given the model differences with the handling of the clipper systems there is a good deal of uncertainty with respect to placement and strength. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-WXFREAK Posted January 21, 2019 Share Posted January 21, 2019 33 minutes ago, wolfie09 said: Euro still has a "favorable" west-wsw flow for Friday/Saturday.. Doesn't look like it would last long as we have several northern stream disturbances riding through the flow.. Late Thursday night and Friday a strong mid level trough and associated surface low/cold front will cross the region, marking the leading edge of the return to much colder temperatures. This system will bring a chance of snow showers areawide, with potential for lake enhancement east of the lakes. The cold becomes well established by the weekend. Model guidance begins to diverge with the handling of clipper shortwaves moving through the mean longwave trough, but in a general sense one or two weak systems will continue to support light snow chances through the weekend. There may also be lake effect potential next weekend, although given the model differences with the handling of the clipper systems there is a good deal of uncertainty with respect to placement and strength. This could easily become a WNW flow event too but most likely a Tug Hill event, then as the system moves through winds veer and the band drops through and heads WNW so we'll see what happens. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vortmax Posted January 21, 2019 Share Posted January 21, 2019 It's hard to imagine with all this new snow, super cold air, that the next LP is just gonna march west of here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thinksnow18 Posted January 21, 2019 Share Posted January 21, 2019 First Mike's wording is a bit convoluted...he says the region (entire area) will experience potentially heavy lake effect this upcoming weekend then says maybe parts of the metro as well...huh. The metro is part of the region as a whole and would be included in that statement. As for what I see at this timeframe is a good chance the lake effect will be buffalo and North for a good chunk of Saturday night and Sunday as the clipper looks to pass north of the great lakes bringing a more SW component. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-WXFREAK Posted January 21, 2019 Share Posted January 21, 2019 The one thing I also notice during these events, once they pass and the Synoptic moisture gets stripped away, ids the Sun usually shines through the low thin clouds but with the SNG being so close to the ground, almost any moisture trapped underneath the inversion, will fall as pixie dust snow as this happens quite often with a Super Arctic air mass like the one over us now! I also notice all the models, excluding the NAM, as thats the furthest South but still not enough, as they are trying to drive a low pressure into all this snow cover over NYS with a retreating Arctic HP and its not like its a stale air mass, cause its definitely not, so my guess is that this short lived system for Wed rides along the baroclinic zone where the deepest snow-cover lies but I may be wrong but Ive seen it too many times so we'll see. With each subsequent run, the models are ticking South Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vortmax Posted January 21, 2019 Share Posted January 21, 2019 Just now, CNY-WXFREAK said: The one thing I also notice during these events, once they pass and the Synoptic moisture gets stripped away, ids the Sun usually shines through the low thin clouds but with the SNG being so close to the ground, almost any moisture trapped underneath the inversion, will fall as pixie dust snow as this happens quite often with a Super Arctic air mass like the one over us now! I also notice all the models, excluding the NAM, as thats the furthest South but still not enough, as they are trying to drive a low pressure into all this snow cover over NYS with a retreating Arctic HP and its not like its a stale air mass, cause its definitely not, so my guess is that this short lived system for Wed rides along the baroclinic zone where the deepest snow-cover lies but I may be wrong but Ive seen it too many times so we'll see. With each subsequent run, the models are ticking South Well, 12z NAM is running, lets see what the 12z suite brings. Hoping that we don't rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 21, 2019 Share Posted January 21, 2019 Gfs continues to be the coldest out ahead of this cutter/front.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 21, 2019 Share Posted January 21, 2019 Nam is more of an ice threat and a decent one at that.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-WXFREAK Posted January 21, 2019 Share Posted January 21, 2019 06Z there were hugs discrepancies between the 06Z EURO and 06Z NAM also gotta check the RRGEM I have a pretty good feeling we stay all frozen but like Wolfie said, the ice threat seems the biggest right now as it'll be tough to dislodge such a dense airmass at the surface as this one is! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-WXFREAK Posted January 21, 2019 Share Posted January 21, 2019 Rgem is a bit warmer in the mid-West but it only goes out to 48hr 06Z Wed Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vortmax Posted January 21, 2019 Share Posted January 21, 2019 Typically, I would tend to believe the EC map as that's what usually happens. Not sure how all of this deep snow pack will impact the temps. Downsloping compression is always an issue with SW winds. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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