87storms Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 if the cad stays intact longer and is better than advertised, then the backside of this system could work out. there's still plenty of precip around when temps start to crash. it might just be a matter of how far they need to crash to changeover to snow. i'd be pretty interested in this if i was the northern tier since there's a better chance of the cad holding on longer. dc/bmore need some work. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
87storms Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 13 minutes ago, DCTeacherman said: The GFS has us changing over to snow at 13z-14z Sunday per the precip-type maps on stormvista. Precip departs between 18z-19z so it supports a period of back end snow, although rather light (<.1 QPF). Could be some nice snowtv though as the arctic front comes through. that's what i'm thinking. if we can change back over a few hours earlier than the gfs is showing, there might be enough precip to work with to make things interesting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 no update on the UKMET yet? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris78 Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 1 minute ago, psuhoffman said: no update on the UKMET yet? Hearing its north Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 1 minute ago, psuhoffman said: no update on the UKMET yet? It came NW, has low over Philly at 72 hours. Not sure if any front or back end frozen though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 29 minutes ago, Chris78 said: Hearing its north Oh well..living on the southern edge of snow 72 hours out is never a good place to be. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 17, 2019 Author Share Posted January 17, 2019 Just now, psuhoffman said: Oh well..living on the southern edge of snow 72 hours out is never a good place to be. I never felt like my yard stood a chance on this so it's easy to just let it happen and move on. If precip races out in front fast enough it might be pretty to look out the window for a couple hours then close the blinds when it flips. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 2 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: I never felt like my yard stood a chance on this so it's easy to just let it happen and move on. If precip races out in front fast enough it might be pretty to look out the window for a couple hours then close the blinds when it flips. I am not really upset about this one...never liked it much once it became obvious what the setup was...but its still a bit frustrating to miss one storm just to the south and now another just to the north. When this week if over a snowfall map is going to have a pretty depressing hole over my house. I know no one in DC will sympathize with that but I am not used to being in the snowhole. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 Yeah, every single time I've been on the southern edge, it's jumped north at the last minute and ended up busting. Recent examples are October 2011, early Feb 2014, March 2017, and even the first round in March 2018 (though the second round compensated nicely). So yeah, the UKMET and ICON are a big reach here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris78 Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 18 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said: Lol. For being north that still looks good for the northern crew. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris78 Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 26 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: Oh well..living on the southern edge of snow 72 hours out is never a good place to be. I still think a few inches are on the table for us though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 9 minutes ago, Chris78 said: Lol. For being north that still looks good for the northern crew. I have a feeling that is counting freezing rain as snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 7 minutes ago, Chris78 said: I still think a few inches are on the table for us though. I dunno...euro just pulled the rug out completely...it pretty much starts as liquid anywhere south of the MD line now. No back end either. Pretty significant shift north with 12z. The 1-2" of snow south of the PA line on the euro map is from tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 I dunno...euro just pulled the rug out completely...it pretty much starts as liquid anywhere south of the MD line now. No back end either. Pretty significant shift north with 12z. The 1-2" of snow south of the PA line on the euro map is from tonight. Game, set, match.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 1 minute ago, psuhoffman said: I dunno...euro just pulled the rug out completely...it pretty much starts as liquid anywhere south of the MD line now. No back end either. Pretty significant shift north with 12z. The 1-2" of snow south of the PA line on the euro map is from tonight. Yup Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WVclimo Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 12 minutes ago, Chris78 said: I still think a few inches are on the table for us though. You and I look to be hanging on by a thread, but recent trends are very much against this holding for another 60 hours. This excludes tonight's snowfall, and I am sure some/ most of this is probably sleet: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris78 Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 1 minute ago, WVclimo said: You and I look to be hanging on by a thread, but recent trends are very much against this holding for another 60 hours. This excludes tonight's snowfall, and I am sure some/ most of this is probably sleet: Lol. Were toast. I was hoping having the euro/ukie on our side would yield better results but not looking that way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RevWarReenactor Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 4 minutes ago, WVclimo said: You and I look to be hanging on by a thread, but recent trends are very much against this holding for another 60 hours. This excludes tonight's snowfall, and I am sure some/ most of this is probably sleet: This makes sense. This storm always seemed to be your classic "north and west of the city" type storm. Climo argues for this type of stuff. Plus they are way overdo for it. I drove in Southern NY state all the way up to Lake George was bare grass. It is their turn. But like PSU said, stinks being in the middle of two storms. There is an area now that will have cashed in on neither. Feel kind of bad for Philly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
midatlanticweather Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 29 minutes ago, Mdecoy said: This makes sense. This storm always seemed to be your classic "north and west of the city" type storm. Climo argues for this type of stuff. Plus they are way overdo for it. I drove in Southern NY state all the way up to Lake George was bare grass. It is their turn. But like PSU said, stinks being in the middle of two storms. There is an area now that will have cashed in on neither. Feel kind of bad for Philly. Philly will be cashing in on Miller Bs so I would not feel bad for them... they usually get them a lot! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 the Euro had central and upper Ohio in the 20 inch range a few days ago right @buckeye Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 10 minutes ago, H2O said: The JMA is that last nail that hasnt been hammered in yet I assume? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 2 hours ago, paxpatriot said: Where's Ji? The JMA looks super sweet. JMA is 5 days late from when other models showed HECS DC - BOS....drool worthy anyway. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 17, 2019 Author Share Posted January 17, 2019 1 minute ago, Ji said: the Euro had central and upper Ohio in the 20 inch range a few days ago right @buckeye The short range trend of moving the line NW has been a recurring theme this winter. The best place to be @ 48-72 hours is just to the NW of the heavy snow. Riding the mix line at 48-72 hours has been a disaster. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 4 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: The short range trend of moving the line NW has been a recurring theme this winter. The best place to be @ 48-72 hours is just to the NW of the heavy snow. Riding the mix line at 48-72 hours has been a disaster. yep..the Dec 9 storm shifted North too but it shifted so far south that we were doomed even with that impressive shift back north Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 9 minutes ago, Ji said: the Euro had central and upper Ohio in the 20 inch range a few days ago right @buckeye 22".... how you guys look'n? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 17, 2019 Author Share Posted January 17, 2019 Just now, Ji said: yep..the Dec 9 storm shifted North too but it shifted so far south that we were doomed even with that impressive shift back north We were (obviously) in a perfect spot for last weekend. The mix line ended up verifying a good bit NW of what was originally thought just 2 days out. The WAA snow was heavier/wetter than we expected because of it but the shift NW is what put us in the jackpot zone. Pretty good tradeoff for most of us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 22".... how you guys look'n?Like you usually do. Rain Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 FWIW, CTP went WSWatch for the counties bordering the Mason-Dixon line And PIT issued WSWatch for Garrett/Tucker/Preston Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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