WhiteoutMD Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 Looks like in our area less moisture overall on the NAM . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterymix Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 What we see here is the GFS 850 mb depiction for sunset on Saturday. This seems to be the final moments for freezing precipitation before massive WAA sweeps the region. So...my interpretation is that accumulating snow and then snow-sleet will be limited to the daytime hours on Saturday. There continues to be very little end of event accumulating snow. The LWX AFD suggests that a small number of ensemble members depict the low sagging a bit south of us, our "last-best-hope." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 The "snow" on the Euro and Ukie...is that a front-end thump? I don't see any sign of backside lovin' on any model anymore. Ok...I see the Euro on weather.us. Looks like a few hours of snow north of DC before the flip. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MD Snow Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 For what it's worth the NAVGEM is way south and east. Still doesn't really help us out much but is interesting nonetheless. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
midatlanticweather Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 This threat is a rainstorm for all except MD/PA border people from all I am seeing. Yes, a little mixing, but I am just not convinced this is worth watching anymore. I think most agree at this point! Unless we see something dramatic, we must say NEXT! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastCoast NPZ Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 2 minutes ago, midatlanticweather said: This threat is a rainstorm for all except MD/PA border people from all I am seeing. Yes, a little mixing, but I am just not convinced this is worth watching anymore. I think most agree at this point! Unless we see something dramatic, we must say NEXT! I guess you didnt see the euro?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MD Snow Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 1 minute ago, EastCoast NPZ said: I guess you didnt see the euro?? Or the Ukie. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 7 minutes ago, midatlanticweather said: This threat is a rainstorm for all except MD/PA border people from all I am seeing. Yes, a little mixing, but I am just not convinced this is worth watching anymore. I think most agree at this point! Unless we see something dramatic, we must say NEXT! okay, bye Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillvilleWx Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 Just now, mappy said: okay, bye You and the whole northern crew should squeeze some snow out of this. All snow is good snow. Except yellow snow, that's not very good. But otherwise, snow is wonderful lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 11 minutes ago, MillvilleWx said: You and the whole northern crew should squeeze some snow out of this. All snow is good snow. Except yellow snow, that's not very good. But otherwise, snow is wonderful lol i always keep my expectations low in these types of setups. yes, i hang onto the cold longer than most, but even this storm i expect the flip to come eventually. as bob said overnight, pouring rain and temps at 31 aren't going to accrue too much ice, just runs off before freezing. id prefer that over a light drizzle at 31° i have no faith in backend snow. if i can get a couple inches out of the front thump before the mix to rain, i consider it a win. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RevWarReenactor Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 Way too much waffling in this thread. One minute "its south its south" the next minute, mostly a rainstorm. Not getting much of a grasp on what to really expect. Just a bunch of confusion. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jandurin Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 I'm expecting a rainstorm in middle MoCo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillvilleWx Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 Just now, mappy said: i always keep my expectations low in these types of setups. yes, i hang onto the cold longer than most, but even this storm i expect the flip to come eventually. as bob said overnight, pouring rain and temps at 31 aren't going to accrue too much ice, just runs off before freezing. id prefer that over a light drizzle at 31° i have no faith in backend snow. if i can get a couple inches out of the front thump before the mix to rain, i consider it a win. I think you should be able to do just that. And completely agree with the assessment of the ice. Despite the temps probably struggling to break out of the low 30's, heavy rain at those temps will have a hard time for accretion as the runoff and ponding will limit the growth of ice on the surface. Still could be a little slippery in spots for sure, but no power loss potential from ice alone. Euro was interesting for snow prospects as a 50-100 mile further south trek of the surface and H85 low would allow for a slightly longer duration snowfall. Ukie and Euro are almost on the same page in that regard and the very end of the NAM Nest was showing something similar in its H5 evolution. Will be interesting to see if the models can hone in on the overall evolution better today so we can start dissecting the thermal levels more for ptype changeover times and total accumulations. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 Front end thump then dryslot is still on the table. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastCoast NPZ Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 I'm expecting steady rain while 10 miles north, @clskins reports roads caving from heavy snow . Oh, and Bob chill will be marveling at the unexpected heavy snow in his yard too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 Just now, PhineasC said: Front end thump then dryslot is still on the table. it always is Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
osfan24 Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 Bernie Rayno is expecting a shift a bit more southeast and has everyone north of DC in the 1-3 range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
osfan24 Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 6z Euro looks meh. A few hours of snow maybe for the northern tier but no ice and no backside snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 2 minutes ago, osfan24 said: 6z Euro looks meh. A few hours of snow maybe for the northern tier but no ice and no backside snow. Orientation of the TPV slightly different on the 6z than 00z which allows for height rises along the EC, hence a "warmer" solution. Something to pay attention to today for the mountains/81/north crew. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterymix Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 The Euro suggests that 850 mb temperatures stay close to 0C. along the northern tier of our region for most of the storm. Saturday night into Sunday morning could feature an interesting mix of wetflakes and snizzle. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 Last nights JMA looks very similar to the UKIE. At 72 the surface low is at the TN/GA border. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pitmd Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 28 minutes ago, nj2va said: Orientation of the TPV slightly different on the 6z than 00z which allows for height rises along the EC, hence a "warmer" solution. Something to pay attention to today for the mountains/81/north crew. Can you explain this in more detail. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lpaschall Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 4 minutes ago, clskinsfan said: Last nights JMA looks very similar to the UKIE. At 72 the surface low is at the TN/GA border. 0Z NAM was in agreement as well with LP as the GA/SC border. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hurricanegiants Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 LP GA/SC border. That would be an improvement for us no?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lpaschall Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 Those in the MA will not like the 12ZNAM, The LP crosses directly over us and erodes the cold air Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BaltimoreWxGuy Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 This isn’t going to work out at all for the metro/I95 crew...track and eroding cold just doesn’t work. Now along the PA line where there’s still more snowpack and cold holds a little longer, I think 1-3 is possible in the east, meaning extreme northern Balt County, Harford and Cecil with 2-4 poss in west...northern Carroll, Frederick and Washington County Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillvilleWx Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 12km NAM is certainly more aggressive with erosion of cold air compared to the Nest, but the overall synoptic setup is similar, so I probably lean with the NAM Nest in the overall depiction. Basically an hour or two of snow for our western crew and 2-3 hours for the northern tier followed by ice. Small nose above freezing around 800mb should shift the ptype to sleet/ZR. H85 winds will be pretty brisk out of the south and southwest, so odds are some significant warming will occur in the latter frames of the Nest. However, the CAD wedge is pretty entrenched so temps will be slow to rise for areas north of I-70. A slightly colder onset would probably shift the ice potential to I-70, but the M/D line and 81 corridor will have the highest chance of impact for frozen. It's a shame this antecedent airmass isn't better leading in. This could've been a nice surprise. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LP08 Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 Nice thump on the ICON for the Northern and Western Crew. With limited maps, I'm sure some would be sleet and not all snow but its a nice hit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 17 minutes ago, BaltimoreWxGuy said: This isn’t going to work out at all for the metro/I95 crew...track and eroding cold just doesn’t work. Now along the PA line where there’s still more snowpack and cold holds a little longer, I think 1-3 is possible in the east, meaning extreme northern Balt County, Harford and Cecil with 2-4 poss in west...northern Carroll, Frederick and Washington County Yeah this one didn't have much of a shot from the beginning, lol Figured we'd just be grasping at snow straws all week! Here's hoping we can get something NEXT week! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris78 Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 3 minutes ago, LP08 said: Nice thump on the ICON for the Northern and Western Crew. With limited maps, I'm sure some would be sleet and not all snow but its a nice hit. That's a big hit along the m/d line. Alot different than the nam. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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