Ji Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 What's the minimum solution to keep you in? 18z icon lol...I need to not go over 32 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 17, 2019 Author Share Posted January 17, 2019 8 minutes ago, Chris78 said: I agree for northern md. Models tend to hold onto 850's too long and also scour out CAD to fast. Good recipe for a prolonged freezing rain event. some of the models are giving quite the thump of snow along the m/d line, but I'm skeptical of that. I'm think an inch or so at best. Hope I'm wrong As the low approaches winds will be out east for a while then out of the south and not light either. The cold is shallow and the freezing line isn't as far south as we would like to see. If an inversion keeps winds from mixing down then surface temps could be stubborn. Snow cover will help some too but this isn't that good CAD setup. It's more like an insitu CAD versus times when we have a true cold drain with northerly winds as precip starts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 17, 2019 Author Share Posted January 17, 2019 17 minutes ago, Ji said: 22 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: What's the minimum solution to keep you in? 18z icon lol...I need to not go over 32 You might stay just below freezing but the rain looks to be heavy at times. 30-31 and heavy rain won't accrete well. I'm hoping we somehow pull off a flip to snow at the end. That would make it fun. Especially if temps plummet like advertised. Doesn't look likely but that could change Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 You might stay just below freezing but the rain looks to be heavy at times. 30-31 and heavy rain won't accrete well. I'm hoping we somehow pull off a flip to snow at the end. That would make it fun. Especially if temps plummet like advertised. Doesn't look likely but that could change We might have a better chance for onset snow than backend Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 Our best chance were the runs where a lot of energy from the southern stream hung backed to the southwest. If it ejects in one big - tilted bowling ball, there's going to be a much stronger low and it's going to be a lot warmer. Unfortunately it's been trending that way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 17, 2019 Author Share Posted January 17, 2019 1 minute ago, Ji said: 10 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: You might stay just below freezing but the rain looks to be heavy at times. 30-31 and heavy rain won't accrete well. I'm hoping we somehow pull off a flip to snow at the end. That would make it fun. Especially if temps plummet like advertised. Doesn't look likely but that could change We might have a better chance for onset snow than backend Absolutely. Accum from a flip at the end is always low probability. One thing models have consistently done this year in the short range (48 hours and in) is shift the rain/snow line north. Right now we have zero wiggle room and that's not good. SNE may have to deal with that trend as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 Nam looks terrible. One nail Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris78 Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 Icon with the step back also. Actually looks in line with the Euro. EDIT: Icon still has a pretty good ice storm in the northern tier. Especially along 81. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Warm Nose Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Roger Smith Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 That is one ugly baby. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Steve25 Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 I'm actually cool with this storm being rain for the Baltimore area. It's looked that way for days and it happens. What I'm not thrilled about is the prospect of it getting extremely cold and then getting right back to a rain storm middle of next week. Back to back rain storms in January is no bueno lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris78 Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 Probably too little to late but GFS made a nice improvement. Shifted south 40 to 50 miles Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 CMC also came SE a good bit... decent thump for NW VA into MD Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 5 minutes ago, yoda said: CMC also came SE a good bit... decent thump for NW VA into MD Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 Lol UKMET 72 is on KY/TN border... but 96 is an SLP offshore of Ocean City by 150 miles or so Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 So UKMET at 90 is a kind of strung out 992mb SLP over Ocean City lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jebman Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 1 hour ago, Chris78 said: Probably too little to late but GFS made a nice improvement. Shifted south 40 to 50 miles This shifts SE a few more times and mappy and wxtrix could end up with a decent snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 9 minutes ago, yoda said: So UKMET at 90 is a kind of strung out 992mb SLP over Ocean City lol Sounds a bit east of the Icon Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 2 minutes ago, Amped said: Sounds a bit east of the Icon Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Roger Smith Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 Southward trends as models come more in line with fantasy forecast ... still not sure if this can get all the way to an all or mostly snow outcome but models have at least realized what was fairly obvious yesterday, this low was not likely to suck up a lot of warm air with that lurching trough and a frigid Canadian high pushing down, nor was it ever going to see the sights of Pittsburgh, Scranton or Springfield, MA. Looks like one of those early spring lows that never advects warm air and gets hammered from all sides by cold air with an explosion of thunder-sleet, ice pellets, and winds backing around the compass for hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 Meh Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 Only 10" here, half of it's probably sleet though Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 3 minutes ago, yoda said: Meh Lol. If only that map was right I would have 8”. I’m starting to pray now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGolfBro Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 4 minutes ago, yoda said: Meh A couple more ticks South and this would hit the whole forum lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 Interesting... 0c 850 line is just north of DCA at 72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 Not bad Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayyy Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 UKMET or bust I’ll take that 6-8” it shows and run LOL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayyy Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 A track like that which goes south of us to ocean city, and a more strung out low, is exactly what we need to keep cold air in place and limit warm air from surging ahead of the low aka for it to snow. Literally the only solution that we could squeak a decent snowstorm out of. Especially for the Baltimore area Unlikely to occur...as it’s a lonely outlier, but hell, ya never know... maybe, like last weekend, it is sniffing out a trend early and we see 6z Globals trend that way. GFS, Euro, GGEM, and UKMET all shifted SE tonight. Now.. we just need it to go south another 75 miles and we’re talkin! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayyy Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 Come on 6z nam ... continue the trend. Don’t do your usual thing and amp this thing up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 Nsm went way south but no precip for us after the southern wave forms Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.