Chris78 Posted January 16, 2019 Share Posted January 16, 2019 Just now, Ji said: they arent allowed too so they show sleet/zr as rain. Are you serious ? Lol. There not allowed too? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lpaschall Posted January 16, 2019 Share Posted January 16, 2019 1 minute ago, Ji said: ha..icon is insane I do not think its to be believed but the trends are obvious in the models. Lets see if the continue. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted January 16, 2019 Share Posted January 16, 2019 ICON is nice up here. A few inches of snow followed by a wintry mix and temps very slightly above freezing, before it all comes crashing down to vodka cold. Of course a south shift would be much better, but this isn't too bad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chase Posted January 16, 2019 Share Posted January 16, 2019 9 minutes ago, DSF said: Not sure if you're being serious, but it runs ne/sw in the mid-Atlantic, so you can totally be north of it. Not in Virginia, but I was being only quasi-snarky. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastCoast NPZ Posted January 16, 2019 Share Posted January 16, 2019 8 minutes ago, Ji said: ha..icon is insane How does the low go from over snowshoe, wv at 90hr to the VA / NC border at 93 hr? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGolfBro Posted January 16, 2019 Share Posted January 16, 2019 1 minute ago, EastCoast NPZ said: How does the low go from over snowshoe, wv at 90hr to the VA / NC border at 93 hr? Maybe the Icon is a snow weenie too Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastCoast NPZ Posted January 16, 2019 Share Posted January 16, 2019 12 minutes ago, DSF said: Not sure if you're being serious, but it runs ne/sw in the mid-Atlantic, so you can totally be north of it. North where? To say north of 95 tells you absolutely nothing; there is no reference. North of 95 means very different things in richmond va than philly, for instance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Staged Posted January 16, 2019 Share Posted January 16, 2019 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastCoast NPZ Posted January 16, 2019 Share Posted January 16, 2019 3 minutes ago, SnowGolfBro said: Maybe the Icon is a snow weenie too Or has ingested too much German brew. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted January 16, 2019 Share Posted January 16, 2019 6 minutes ago, EastCoast NPZ said: How does the low go from over snowshoe, wv at 90hr to the VA / NC border at 93 hr? Unless I miss my guess, one of the recent NAMs or GFS runs for this event did something similar. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 16, 2019 Author Share Posted January 16, 2019 5 minutes ago, EastCoast NPZ said: How does the low go from over snowshoe, wv at 90hr to the VA / NC border at 93 hr? It's just the L stamp making it confusing. The area of low pressure is stretched/elongated along the the boundary. If you look at the isobars and ignore the L stamp it's less confusing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
87storms Posted January 16, 2019 Share Posted January 16, 2019 looks like the system sped up a bit this run which i don't think is what we want. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
midatlanticweather Posted January 16, 2019 Share Posted January 16, 2019 Came south some! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LeesburgWx Posted January 16, 2019 Share Posted January 16, 2019 Where is the pbp? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 16, 2019 Share Posted January 16, 2019 Just now, LeesburgWx said: Where is the pbp? If there is none that means it’s a disaster. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LP08 Posted January 16, 2019 Share Posted January 16, 2019 Just now, stormtracker said: If there is none that means it’s a disaster. You’ve chosen to ignore the GFS. Options Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 16, 2019 Share Posted January 16, 2019 Its gfs vs icon..nam...euro and UK.good luck Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillvilleWx Posted January 16, 2019 Share Posted January 16, 2019 At this point, I'd only monitor the GFS for the upper level features and placement of the SLP with track. The GFS thermals are just not going to handle the setup well as it under analyzes the strength of CAD and will have a significant impact on the precip forecast algorithm. ICON did well with the last storm, but it MIGHT be too cold. We shall see. Better hedge for now is to monitor the progression at H5 in conjunction with the MSLP forecast with thermal layer forecast becoming more honed within 48 hrs of the event. Think ice could be a problem just east of the BR and our far northern tier with modest impacts felt to I-70 corridor. We've seen this type of setup numerous times. Remember climo and intertwine that with what models are spitting out. NAM nest and other short term guidance will be better tools close in to convey CAD strength and other mesoscale factors. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 16, 2019 Share Posted January 16, 2019 If there is none that means it’s a disaster. When the news is so bad that yoda wont even deliver it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris78 Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 1 minute ago, losetoa6 said: Euro brings max gust winds over 50 mph as the artic front passes Sunday am and its still has precip around . Geez...Monday is insane in the membrain... highs 7-13 area wide with gusts 30 - 35 +. I'm suppose to be running an outdoor feeder wire to a garage that day Do you have access to the 18z Euro? Hearing it's not quite as good as the 12z for the northern crew? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastCoast NPZ Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 13 minutes ago, losetoa6 said: Euro brings max gust winds over 50 mph as the artic front passes Sunday am and its still has precip around . Geez...Monday is insane in the membrain... highs 7-13 area wide with gusts 30 - 35 +. I'm suppose to be running an outdoor feeder wire to a garage that day Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WVclimo Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 8 minutes ago, Chris78 said: Do you have access to the 18z Euro? Hearing it's not quite as good as the 12z for the northern crew? 18Z looks ok for our neck of the woods. We lose 850's by 10 p.m. Saturday evening, which is a few hours quicker than 12Z. Surface freezing line south of us looks the same as 12Z at that time though. We are straddling 32 by 4:00 a.m. Sunday but by then well over 0.50" of something frozen has fallen. The cold front is already pushing in from the northwest by early in the morning on Sunday. heres a clown map: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
George BM Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 21 minutes ago, losetoa6 said: Euro brings max gust winds over 50 mph as the artic front passes Sunday am and its still has precip around . Geez...Monday is insane in the membrain... highs 7-13 area wide with gusts 30 - 35 +. I'm suppose to be running an outdoor feeder wire to a garage that day Are you describing the 12z run or 18z run? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hurricanegiants Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 This is why I love this forum. Real experts (which I am not) and great analysis. Then you have the iPhone weather app that makes you believe the sky is falling snow every other day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 17 minutes ago, Hurricanegiants said: This is why I love this forum. Real experts (which I am not) and great analysis. Then you have the iPhone weather app that makes you believe the sky is falling snow every other day. That Temps going to jump from 19-27 between 11:59PM Monday and 12:00AM Tuesday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 1 hour ago, losetoa6 said: Euro brings max gust winds over 50 mph as the artic front passes Sunday am and its still has precip around . Geez...Monday is insane in the membrain... highs 7-13 area wide with gusts 30 - 35 +. I'm suppose to be running an outdoor feeder wire to a garage that day Man could you imagine even like 0.3" ZR on the trees then a flash freeze into the single digits with wind? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 One more bad euro run and im out Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 17, 2019 Author Share Posted January 17, 2019 Just now, Ji said: One more bad euro run and im out What's the minimum solution to keep you in? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 Just now, Ji said: One more bad euro run and im out Looks like only a slight step back from 12z. Though if 0z doesn't have another south shift then I'll be getting nervous (or rather, more realistic ) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris78 Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 4 minutes ago, losetoa6 said: That's extreme as it gets for this area.. no doubt very anomalous if it were to go down like that . We've seen these events time after time be under modeled up to the hour its happening even by mesos which do better with thermals. My money is on a prolonged mix event after a brief period of snow to start for northern Md . I agree for northern md. Models tend to hold onto 850's too long and also scour out CAD to fast. Good recipe for a prolonged freezing rain event. some of the models are giving quite the thump of snow along the m/d line, but I'm skeptical of that. I'm think an inch or so at best. Hope I'm wrong Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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