Negnao Posted January 16, 2019 Share Posted January 16, 2019 5 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said: 39 is a way better number. FYI 2/51 odds. E39 is the Roger Smith forecast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted January 16, 2019 Share Posted January 16, 2019 Just now, Bob Chill said: The spread is fairly tight and very supportive of the 12z op. For yours and my yard... eps ain't looking too good. Yeah, still clearly isn't there for us, but it's still trending our way for the moment! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris78 Posted January 16, 2019 Share Posted January 16, 2019 2 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: Didn't see 0z, but 12z EPS is definitely south of yesterday's 12z. Maybe ~100mi? Atleast a 100 miles. At 96 HR low is in south central va. Compared to on top of us yesterday at 12z. That's a real nice bump south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 16, 2019 Author Share Posted January 16, 2019 1 minute ago, WxUSAF said: Yeah, still clearly isn't there for us, but it's still trending our way for the moment! It's never looked good for us to it's easy to stomach one way or the other. I won't be staying up for the euro this week. Best case scenario (unless magic happens) would be 2-4" mixed in with a lot of rain. Maybe some sleet or freezing rain but even zr will be challenging for most or all of our area. 30-32 degrees and heavy rain is not a recipe for a substantial zr event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted January 16, 2019 Share Posted January 16, 2019 1 minute ago, Bob Chill said: It's never looked good for us to it's easy to stomach one way or the other. I won't be staying up for the euro this week. Best case scenario (unless magic happens) would be 2-4" mixed in with a lot of rain. Maybe some sleet or freezing rain but even zr will be challenging for most or all of our area. 30-32 degrees and heavy rain is not a recipe for a substantial zr event. I'm fine with a stats padder that gets washed away hours later. It's what Mid-Atlantic winters are made of! Some good luck tomorrow night, this weekend, and next week and I could be within spitting distance of climo before the -NAO/09-10 redux arrives at the end of the month. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted January 16, 2019 Share Posted January 16, 2019 I'm skeptical that all of the snow gets washed away...I think we always assume that Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted January 16, 2019 Share Posted January 16, 2019 My only question about this is the church commute Sunday morning...would we be rain by that time? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted January 16, 2019 Share Posted January 16, 2019 1 minute ago, leesburg 04 said: I'm skeptical that all of the snow gets washed away...I think we always assume that 18 hours of temps in the upper 40s/near 50 and heavy rain will just leave piles I'd think. Just now, Maestrobjwa said: My only question about this is the church commute Sunday morning...would we be rain by that time? Yes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GEOS5ftw Posted January 16, 2019 Share Posted January 16, 2019 1 minute ago, leesburg 04 said: I'm skeptical that all of the snow gets washed away...I think we always assume that Key is how high the dewpoint gets...low-mid 30s for 6 or even 12 hours won't do much damage. 40s or 50s will decimate it within minutes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
poolz1 Posted January 16, 2019 Share Posted January 16, 2019 8 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: It's never looked good for us to it's easy to stomach one way or the other. I won't be staying up for the euro this week. Best case scenario (unless magic happens) would be 2-4" mixed in with a lot of rain. Maybe some sleet or freezing rain but even zr will be challenging for most or all of our area. 30-32 degrees and heavy rain is not a recipe for a substantial zr event. Exactly my thoughts looking at the Euro op run. Even areas that stay right around freezing get up to 32/33 sat before the storm. Great if we have dews in the low teens but dews are in the upper 20's. That is where the handling of the CAD comes into play. Just lower dews into the lower 20's and its and ice storm for somebody in the western areas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted January 16, 2019 Share Posted January 16, 2019 hard to say for sure, but looks like i am at freezing the whole event, per euro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 16, 2019 Share Posted January 16, 2019 5 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said: My only question about this is the church commute Sunday morning...would we be rain by that time? Why dont you go Saturday night and pray that it doesnt turn to rain? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted January 16, 2019 Share Posted January 16, 2019 5 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: 18 hours of temps in the upper 40s/near 50 and heavy rain will just leave piles I'd think. Yes. I'm banking on it not getting that warm I suppose Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted January 16, 2019 Share Posted January 16, 2019 Are there any EPS members that do anything with a trailing wave or changeover scenario? The EPS mean snowfall makes me think there are at least a few... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AfewUniversesBelowNormal Posted January 16, 2019 Share Posted January 16, 2019 It's shifting to a more typical El Nino track on 18z NAM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted January 16, 2019 Share Posted January 16, 2019 2 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said: Why dont you go Saturday night and pray that it doesnt turn to rain? Nope, doesn't work that way...lol (and I would be in there playing organ and piano for nobody and directing an imaginary choir...all without pay! Haha) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lpaschall Posted January 16, 2019 Share Posted January 16, 2019 18Z NAM looks good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted January 16, 2019 Share Posted January 16, 2019 The EURO is a nasty storm for my area. Never gets above freezing at the surface the entire event. It is interesting because I would think the models will trend even colder as we approach the event. I wonder if the front end thump might not get better as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 16, 2019 Share Posted January 16, 2019 The EURO is a nasty storm for my area. Never gets above freezing at the surface the entire event. It is interesting because I would think the models will trend even colder as we approach the event. I wonder if the front end thump might not get better as well.This is the one event I'd prefer Winchester lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LP08 Posted January 16, 2019 Share Posted January 16, 2019 Everyone stays in the 30's or lower on the ICON. Man that is close. Very little stream interaction this run until late. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LP08 Posted January 16, 2019 Share Posted January 16, 2019 Just now, LP08 said: Everyone stays in the 30's or lower on the ICON. Man that is close. Very little stream interaction this run until late. Good front end thump for most as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris78 Posted January 16, 2019 Share Posted January 16, 2019 Icon is a big thump and then a major ice storm for NW of dc. Icon didn't show sleet or freezing rain for whatever reason. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted January 16, 2019 Share Posted January 16, 2019 1 minute ago, Chris78 said: Icon is a big thump and then a major ice storm for NW of dc. Icon didn't show sleet or freezing rain for whatever reason. Yup, that's a high impact event especially for the 81 corridor, northern tier, and mountains. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chase Posted January 16, 2019 Share Posted January 16, 2019 1 hour ago, Roger Smith said: it could drop 8-12 inches of snow at least north of I-95. A lot of things have to go right. But then they all did last weekend. 95 runs north to south Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Flying Bouncy House Posted January 16, 2019 Share Posted January 16, 2019 Anybody have the link to the ICON? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lpaschall Posted January 16, 2019 Share Posted January 16, 2019 Just now, Flying Bouncy House said: Anybody have the link to the ICON? https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=icon&region=us&pkg=T2m_contour&runtime=2019011618&fh=90 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 16, 2019 Share Posted January 16, 2019 ha..icon is insane Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 16, 2019 Share Posted January 16, 2019 6 minutes ago, Chris78 said: Icon is a big thump and then a major ice storm for NW of dc. Icon didn't show sleet or freezing rain for whatever reason. they arent allowed too so they show sleet/zr as rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hyphnx Posted January 16, 2019 Share Posted January 16, 2019 PA gets slammed.... Need some of that love down in RIC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DSF Posted January 16, 2019 Share Posted January 16, 2019 4 minutes ago, Chase said: 95 runs north to south Not sure if you're being serious, but it runs ne/sw in the mid-Atlantic, so you can totally be north of it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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