Ruin Posted January 19, 2019 Share Posted January 19, 2019 Any one else having temps a good few ticks higher today then foretasted? I think what hurt my area the clouds really never broke for more then a hour last night. so the temps stopped falling. then rose a bit with the sun being up even behind clouds. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris78 Posted January 19, 2019 Share Posted January 19, 2019 Snow/sleet mix now. Probably a little more sleet than snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted January 19, 2019 Share Posted January 19, 2019 Been back to a snow sleet mix for the past hour or so. The roads are a mess out here with accidents everywhere. I am actually surprised by this as I was not expecting us to get down to freezing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris78 Posted January 19, 2019 Share Posted January 19, 2019 100% sleet now in Smithsburg Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted January 19, 2019 Share Posted January 19, 2019 Road conditions out by my house. This was from 4:00. Serious sleet bomb here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AfewUniversesBelowNormal Posted January 19, 2019 Share Posted January 19, 2019 It started as mostly rain here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
poolz1 Posted January 19, 2019 Share Posted January 19, 2019 5 minutes ago, losetoa6 said: 1.4" total S+ 32/31 All surfaces covered Wow man! Thats great....only about .5" here. All sleet now. Traffic cams just west of HGR are pretty impressive. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sparky Posted January 19, 2019 Share Posted January 19, 2019 Lost the snow mostly rain now but picked up .5 beforehand. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
poolz1 Posted January 19, 2019 Share Posted January 19, 2019 Back to all snow...heavy! lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paxpatriot Posted January 19, 2019 Share Posted January 19, 2019 1.8 inches measured just now. Temp is hanging on at 31.6F. M/D crew doing alright so far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CatoctinRN Posted January 19, 2019 Share Posted January 19, 2019 Still all snow in Emmitsburg. Roads are wreck heading S towards Frederick Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fasteddy Posted January 19, 2019 Share Posted January 19, 2019 Just switched to heavy ZR... 31.5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scraff Posted January 19, 2019 Share Posted January 19, 2019 16 minutes ago, AfewUniversesBelowNormal said: It started as mostly rain here. That’s caused by the soil temperature torching in Helsinki. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 19, 2019 Author Share Posted January 19, 2019 1 hour ago, Jebman said: How much snow on the ground? We need to will that snow to Rockville, then stall it out. Lol. Not this time Jeb. I wrote this one off a couple days ago. Rockville is rarely a good spot with marginal temps. Above freezing and rain is all I'm getting and I'm totally good with it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 19, 2019 Author Share Posted January 19, 2019 1 hour ago, Ruin said: I kept telling my friend about how most likely a week out no one knows what models will be even close to right. last night they bumped my totals up in my area to 8-12 wake up after a nap this afternoon. down to 1-4 saying wsw canceled and now we are in a wwa. its just sad all this tech we have and it seams as if they do a worst job forecasting anything vs when i was growing up lol. id rather have 3 feet of snow then the nothing we are about to get with a ton of ice. I said to my friend all the time I could see this being a crazy ice storm. Marginal temp situations are extremely difficult to model. Just 1 degree difference in one of many levels of the atmosphere up through 700mbs can make or break frozen versus wet. Numerical weather prediction does an amazing job with the big picture but being on the edge is razor thin and just a tiny error can make a massive difference with sensible wx on the ground. That type of error is going to be present for probably decades. Not just temps either. Track errors of just 10 miles can change the outcome for literally millions of people. If you look on the fun side... the element of surprise isn't going away. Imagine a world where models are dead accurate 3 days out in time. That would actually suck for wx hobbyists. Would be boring. Lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WVclimo Posted January 19, 2019 Share Posted January 19, 2019 1.5" of lemonade. Moderate snow with flakes getting larger. 32.5 degrees. Not sure how long I can hold off the sleet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 19, 2019 Share Posted January 19, 2019 38 and dry here. Hope I miss all the piss. I mean, lemonade. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paleocene Posted January 19, 2019 Share Posted January 19, 2019 Just now, Bob Chill said: Marginal temp situations are extremely difficult to model. Just 1 degree difference in one of many levels of the atmosphere up through 700mbs can make or break frozen versus wet. Numerical weather prediction does an amazing job with the big picture but being on the edge is razor thin and just a tiny error can make a massive difference with sensible wx on the ground. That type of error is going to be present for probably decades. Not just temps either. Track errors of just 10 miles can change the outcome for literally millions of people. If you look on the fun side... the element of surprise isn't going away. Imagine a world where models are dead accurate 3 days out in time. That would actually suck for wx hobbyists. Would be boring. Lol 1000x this. When winter weather doesn't pan out, we often hear "the models suck." Do the models suck in June, when the high is 85 instead of a modeled 82? Or in October, when 0.52" of rain accumulates at 48 degrees, instead the prior day's 18z GFS, which said it would be 0.30" of rain at 51 degrees? No, no one cares! We care most when the errors matter most. I guess the non-winter corollary is the exact track of tropical cyclones. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paxpatriot Posted January 19, 2019 Share Posted January 19, 2019 2 minutes ago, WVclimo said: 1.5" of lemonade. Moderate snow with flakes getting larger. 32.5 degrees. Not sure how long I can hold off the sleet. When you start sleeting, I know I’ll have about 1 more hour of snow up way way, lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted January 19, 2019 Share Posted January 19, 2019 16 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: Lol. Not this time Jeb. I wrote this one off a couple days ago. Rockville is rarely a good spot with marginal temps. Above freezing and rain is all I'm getting and I'm totally good with it. Washing away the salt. And the snow. Somehow I am ok with it this time. Will make me appreciate the next snow event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BlizzardNole Posted January 20, 2019 Share Posted January 20, 2019 Perfect test for the Radarscope precip depiction -- the ground obs line up perfectly with the snow vs. rain. You can really see the CAD on it nicely. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
poolz1 Posted January 20, 2019 Share Posted January 20, 2019 Back to sleet/rain mix. About an inch of new snow. Think that may be it....you can see the surge pushing north on the CC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CatoctinRN Posted January 20, 2019 Share Posted January 20, 2019 1.5 in Emmitsburg still moderate snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 20, 2019 Share Posted January 20, 2019 4 minutes ago, losetoa6 said: Changed to sleet for 15 minutes now back to moderate snow . Cleared the snow board before I drove to the liquor store and got back to about .20 additional. So I'll call it 1.6" total Where abouts are you in N Carroll? I head to Gettysburg a few times a year and I love that drive from Westminster N on 97 up through Union Mills. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WVclimo Posted January 20, 2019 Share Posted January 20, 2019 22 minutes ago, paxpatriot said: When you start sleeting, I know I’ll have about 1 more hour of snow up way way, lol. Just flipped to a sleet/ rain mix. 2.0" of new snow today. Snow depth is 4.0" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paxpatriot Posted January 20, 2019 Share Posted January 20, 2019 4 minutes ago, WVclimo said: Just flipped to a sleet/ rain mix. 2.0" of new snow today. Snow depth is 4.0" Heaviest snow of the evening right now. Guess I can smell the sleet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted January 20, 2019 Share Posted January 20, 2019 30 and FRZRA. Should flip to plain rain for a few hours tonight before the hammer drops. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ruin Posted January 20, 2019 Share Posted January 20, 2019 Heavy snow here if this keeps up just for another 2 or so hours we will hi our lowered totals. But ive been down this path before when the news comes on at 11 they will say the sleet ice compacted the snow so you didnt get as much as you thought. even tho it was measured before most of the ice came. I just hope we can hold onto some snow pack now with the last half of the storm being rain and now out of no where im gonna be 40 over night when before my highest temp was 32-33 12 hours ago haha. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted January 20, 2019 Share Posted January 20, 2019 I have .2 of sleet here. This stuff is going to turn into concrete tomorrow night. Snow pack is holding on strong though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lpaschall Posted January 20, 2019 Share Posted January 20, 2019 16 minutes ago, losetoa6 said: Off 97 . A little over a mile south of the PA line All rain down here in Westminster Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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