Grothar of Herndon Posted January 19, 2019 Share Posted January 19, 2019 2 hours ago, MN Transplant said: I wonder what was the last time we had heavy (1”+) precip falling on an existing snowpack. Certainly Christmas 2009 counts. I don’t recall the last time,’but it did happen in January 1996 10 days or so after the blizzard. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted January 19, 2019 Share Posted January 19, 2019 Storms have been modeled too far NW in the mid-long range and then too far south in the short range all winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MDstorm Posted January 19, 2019 Share Posted January 19, 2019 2 hours ago, leesburg 04 said: Is this storm going to be good for anyone up the coast...NAM sure is ugly for the NE weenies But, Deep Thunder had 17 inches of snow for Boston. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HighStakes Posted January 19, 2019 Share Posted January 19, 2019 I dont think we ever got below 32 last night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RevWarReenactor Posted January 19, 2019 Share Posted January 19, 2019 3 minutes ago, HighStakes said: I dont think we ever got below 32 last night. Our snow has been in full melt since 9am yesterday. It feels tropical outside. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MDstorm Posted January 19, 2019 Share Posted January 19, 2019 Flurries!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PDIII Posted January 19, 2019 Share Posted January 19, 2019 Man nws is really going big. They are counting on something.. maybe snow cover.. evap cooling.. a quick front end thump.. maybe ice.. And they issue the warnings after the last night's guidance... They are all in.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted January 19, 2019 Share Posted January 19, 2019 Starting as light flurries at my house. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BaltimoreWxGuy Posted January 19, 2019 Share Posted January 19, 2019 3 minutes ago, PDIII said: Man nws is really going big. They are counting on something.. maybe snow cover.. evap cooling.. a quick front end thump.. maybe ice.. And they issue the warnings after the last night's guidance... They are all in.. Their dicusssion hints at changing or dropping some...but they haven’t done it yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Herb@MAWS Posted January 19, 2019 Share Posted January 19, 2019 13 minutes ago, HighStakes said: I dont think we ever got below 32 last night. IMBY we technically got below freezing. Skies partially cleared around 11pm Friday and temp dipped to 31. By 6am, it was overcast and back up to 34. Hanging in at 35.6 at noon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BaltimoreWxGuy Posted January 19, 2019 Share Posted January 19, 2019 NWS just dropped advisories and changed warnings to advisories. About time Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
notvirga! Posted January 19, 2019 Share Posted January 19, 2019 Flurries in Owings Mills Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fasteddy Posted January 19, 2019 Share Posted January 19, 2019 32 freezing fog - Just had a 22mph gust Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
87storms Posted January 19, 2019 Share Posted January 19, 2019 actually thought it was raining, but stepped outside and...false alarm. marginal temps, but maybe we can start out as some frozen once the better stuff moves through. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris78 Posted January 19, 2019 Share Posted January 19, 2019 Imho GFS handled this storm very well. Always had the more northern track and hasn't really wavered on that for several days. Fv3 also had it north.Euro had a more southern track up to about 2 days ago. Atleast far enough south to make things interesting for the northern part of the forum. Ukie was awful. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HighStakes Posted January 19, 2019 Share Posted January 19, 2019 Few flurries here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted January 19, 2019 Share Posted January 19, 2019 Light snow just started. Fluffy Dendrites making it very picturesque on the hike. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Danajames Posted January 19, 2019 Share Posted January 19, 2019 2 hours ago, HighStakes said: I dont think we ever got below 32 last night. It was 37 when I got up and I live in southern part of Harford County. As soon as I saw that, I knew this one was a done deal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Danajames Posted January 19, 2019 Share Posted January 19, 2019 1 hour ago, Chris78 said: Imho GFS handled this storm very well. Always had the more northern track and hasn't really wavered on that for several days. Fv3 also had it north.Euro had a more southern track up to about 2 days ago. Atleast far enough south to make things interesting for the northern part of the forum. Ukie was awful. I mentioned that this morning about the GFS, Chris. It did a great job with this storm and never wavered from it's track even a week ago. The GFS long range can be almost comical at times but when you get within 5-6 days of a specific event, it usually does a pretty good job. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 19, 2019 Author Share Posted January 19, 2019 12 minutes ago, Danajames said: I mentioned that this morning about the GFS, Chris. It did a great job with this storm and never wavered from it's track even a week ago. The GFS long range can be almost comical at times but when you get within 5-6 days of a specific event, it usually does a pretty good job. Gfs actually was right for the wrong reasons. It started off warmer but the upper level pattern was handled much better by the euro and even the icon. The short range trend of shifting the mix/rain line NW made the gfs look better than it was. From a sensible wx standpoint the gfs looks like a rockstar. If you go back and compare upper level forecasts over time, the euro did the best in the mid range. Few will agree or care to agree though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WEATHER53 Posted January 19, 2019 Share Posted January 19, 2019 3 hours ago, Fasteddy said: This is from our vacation house in WV (1900').. That's looking towards Winchester.. I couldn't stay in MD for this storm and watch it rain.. At least I'll get a little bit of snow or more than likely, a nice ice storm.. It looks like the view from several miles west of Berkeley Springs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WEATHER53 Posted January 19, 2019 Share Posted January 19, 2019 It’s -4 at 850 and -1 at 925 . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Danajames Posted January 19, 2019 Share Posted January 19, 2019 1 hour ago, Bob Chill said: Gfs actually was right for the wrong reasons. It started off warmer but the upper level pattern was handled much better by the euro and even the icon. The short range trend of shifting the mix/rain line NW made the gfs look better than it was. From a sensible wx standpoint the gfs looks like a rockstar. If you go back and compare upper level forecasts over time, the euro did the best in the mid range. Few will agree or care to agree though. The only model I have on my computer is the GFS. I'd like to get the EURO but for some reason, can never find one that's similar to the GFS. It's usually just 2-4 small maps but never like the ones I see on meteorologist blogs or videos. In any rate, I think one of the reasons the GFS irritates mets or other people in general is because their long range projections are almost unusable. But within a 5-7 day window, I think it does perform pretty well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WEATHER53 Posted January 19, 2019 Share Posted January 19, 2019 -2.5 850 And -1 925. surface plots shows a 998 that surface plot wise did not gain latitude in last hour but rather due east. Hard to assess but extreme cold to northeast is from departed low and extreme cold from nw/w is from arctic high Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted January 19, 2019 Share Posted January 19, 2019 Man I'm glad I flew home from Portland Maine...looks like a few inches then a deluge. Poor New England weenies including ORH and ray look the same AWT lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Roger Smith Posted January 19, 2019 Share Posted January 19, 2019 Low is currently in w TN and track appears to be something like CRW to 50n FDK to PHL to ISP to BOS. There may be some eastward jogs in that overall e.n.e. to n.e. track. So I would expect some interesting weather to develop later because this is not advecting warm air very efficiently and when heavier precip moves in over top, it could change phase in some parts of MD and far n VA, ne WV. Not saying snow from that, more like ice pellets or sleet. Eventually it will begin to draw in the high 50s and low 60s temps from se VA but I think a very sharp demarcation of air masses will develop overnight so that some counties of se MD will reach 60-65 and the I-95 will stay around 40-45, further north 33-38. This is when precip could get quite thundery. When the low center reaches NYC the arctic cold front will be rushing southeast and temps on Sunday will likely fall 20-30 deg in a few hours, from those variable numbers in the warm sector and frontal zone, to 10-15 F. Some bursts of moderate snow are possible with the passage of the arctic front, 0.1 to 0.3 inch forecast for the airports and 1.0 inch for some parts of nw MD. So for the northern half of the forum it won't be a simple case of warming up, raining, and turning colder. For the southern half it may play out like that more so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WEATHER53 Posted January 19, 2019 Share Posted January 19, 2019 21 minutes ago, Roger Smith said: Low is currently in w TN and track appears to be something like CRW to 50n FDK to PHL to ISP to BOS. There may be some eastward jogs in that overall e.n.e. to n.e. track. So I would expect some interesting weather to develop later because this is not advecting warm air very efficiently and when heavier precip moves in over top, it could change phase in some parts of MD and far n VA, ne WV. Not saying snow from that, more like ice pellets or sleet. Eventually it will begin to draw in the high 50s and low 60s temps from se VA but I think a very sharp demarcation of air masses will develop overnight so that some counties of se MD will reach 60-65 and the I-95 will stay around 40-45, further north 33-38. This is when precip could get quite thundery. When the low center reaches NYC the arctic cold front will be rushing southeast and temps on Sunday will likely fall 20-30 deg in a few hours, from those variable numbers in the warm sector and frontal zone, to 10-15 F. Some bursts of moderate snow are possible with the passage of the arctic front, 0.1 to 0.3 inch forecast for the airports and 1.0 inch for some parts of nw MD. So for the northern half of the forum it won't be a simple case of warming up, raining, and turning colder. For the southern half it may play out like that more so. Another thing that an arctic front does that a typical cold front does not is it squeezes out the moisture more than relying on residual moisture. I think thunder is probable and snow squalls and showers. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WEATHER53 Posted January 19, 2019 Share Posted January 19, 2019 3 minutes ago, losetoa6 said: Current surface pressures . Actually current obs look weaker and a little south of the nams at this current hour .Nams are around 994-95 mb and centered on the Kentucky/ TN line if not a lil north of that That’s 1pm and that 998 did not lift from the 12noon one so will be interesting to see 2pm one Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fasteddy Posted January 19, 2019 Share Posted January 19, 2019 light snow.. temp dropped to 30... latest wind gust 25mph Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
das Posted January 19, 2019 Share Posted January 19, 2019 Checking in from Casa de das–north. First flakes falling up here. Check out that temperature on the car thermometer: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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