clskinsfan Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 3 minutes ago, nj2va said: This is the kind of setup where Garrett does better than Tucker and it’s mostly due to the fact that Garrett is more north. Go just across Garrett into the next county in PA and it’s the same story there...they’ll get 6-10” vs Garrett 3-6”...latitude helps with this setup. All of the short range models except the RGEM like a thump from basically my area up through Garrett. This is one instance where being in a valley would actually help keep the cold air in place. I am on top of a mountain so would expect a changeover pretty quickly here in all honesty. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 So alot of people on the board are under a winter storm warning Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vastateofmind Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 28 minutes ago, clskinsfan said: All of the short range models except the RGEM like a thump from basically my area up through Garrett. This is one instance where being in a valley would actually help keep the cold air in place. I am on top of a mountain so would expect a changeover pretty quickly here in all honesty. I personally hope y'all get a thump of some sort out of this sh*tshow coming over the next two days...you (and the Mason Dixon line folks) deserve it, especially after we in the VA 'burbs south of the District bull-ishly cashed in with 8"-10" of snow last weekend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 1 hour ago, AfewUniversesBelowNormal said: 18z NAM would have to be way wrong too. Not a stretch to say that the NAM could be wrong. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Roger Smith Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 Still looks like it would not take much pressure from the cold air to force a center jump from CRW to se DCA and allow wintry precip to continue in much of this region. It's a steadily deepening low which is good in that the energy will force cold air to flow into the CAD zone. My gut says 1-2" snow followed by sleet, non-accum zr, then back to sleet and a top off of 0.5" snow in a final plunge. SBY could hit 60 while BWI and DCA remain 35-40, IAD 32-35 F. Some thunder with all of the above. While it could have been so much better, at least it's interesting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vastateofmind Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 2 minutes ago, Roger Smith said: Still looks like it would not take much pressure from the cold air to force a center jump from CRW to se DCA and allow wintry precip to continue in much of this region. It's a steadily deepening low which is good in that the energy will force cold air to flow into the CAD zone. My gut says 1-2" snow followed by sleet, non-accum zr, then back to sleet and a top off of 0.5" snow in a final plunge. SBY could hit 60 while BWI and DCA remain 35-40, IAD 32-35 F. Some thunder with all of the above. While it could have been so much better, at least it's interesting. So, which specific areas in our region do you think could see thunder-frozen? Probably my favorite meteorological phenom of all time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Roger Smith Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 Thunder-frozen possible from I-95 northwestward (in MD) and north of an east-west vector from Dale City (in VA). Most likely MoCo to Baltimore county. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Woodbridge02 Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 1 minute ago, Roger Smith said: Thunder-frozen possible from I-95 northwestward (in MD) and north of an east-west vector from Dale City (in VA). Most likely MoCo to Baltimore county. lol that's not happening. I'm expecting all rain and unfortunately that's what I'm going to get. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 19 minutes ago, Ji said: So alot of people on the board are under a winter storm warning Everyone decided to write this whole thing off as 50 degree rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 41 minutes ago, clskinsfan said: All of the short range models except the RGEM like a thump from basically my area up through Garrett. This is one instance where being in a valley would actually help keep the cold air in place. I am on top of a mountain so would expect a changeover pretty quickly here in all honesty. Yep totally agree on the valley point which is why areas like Frostburg and Cumberland will see a significant amount of ice as they are wedged between the BR and the Allegany front. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Inthepines Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 2 hours ago, mattskiva said: Not really buying that. I get the idea that any CAD would scour out more quickly (or never exist at all) at 3200 feet, but we're not talking about CAD with the snow scenario, and even if sea level at that latitude is in the 40s, it seems unlikely that the huge different in elevation would result in so much less accumulation in Tucker than in Garrett. In the vast majority of scenarios, Canaan sees more accumulation than Garrett (though there are certainly some exceptions). The central and eastern portion of garrett county hold CAD exceptionally well tbh. Even though they are west of the continental divide the gradual rise of the Allegheny Plateau in this region lends itself well to CAD. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowmagnet Posted January 19, 2019 Share Posted January 19, 2019 I’m not sure what happened, but the NWS now has us no higher than 34 all weekend in Fairfax. Snow, rain, sleet and freezing rain. We were supposed to be in the 50’s. If this is accurate, we should be under an Advisory at least. I’ve seen many storms here that continues snow and sleet when it was supposed to change to rain. I won’t be surprised if we stay frozen for much of this. Even after the rain, a flash freeze on wet roads is going to be a mess on Sunday and Monday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 19, 2019 Author Share Posted January 19, 2019 7 minutes ago, snowmagnet said: I’m not sure what happened, but the NWS now has us no higher than 34 all weekend in Fairfax. Snow, rain, sleet and freezing rain. We were supposed to be in the 50’s. If this is accurate, we should be under an Advisory at least. I’ve seen many storms here that continues snow and sleet when it was supposed to change to rain. I won’t be surprised if we stay frozen for much of this. Even after the rain, a flash freeze on wet roads is going to be a mess on Sunday and Monday I'm expecting almost all rain. The cold at the surface and mids is really shallow and surface and mid level winds are out of the south. It will take very little to scour out what little cold there is near the cities. This isn't a CAD setup with north winds and cold drain. It basically insitu cad with limited cold at the beginning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WEATHER53 Posted January 19, 2019 Share Posted January 19, 2019 3 hours ago, PhineasC said: Everyone decided to write this whole thing off as 50 degree rain. Not everyone Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted January 19, 2019 Share Posted January 19, 2019 I know I'm late, but I just found out that I'm in a warning. I'm legit surprised that they think a quarter inch of ice is in the cards. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted January 19, 2019 Share Posted January 19, 2019 I am expecting 98% rain but I also mentioned a few days ago that I didn't think this would be a snow eating 50 degree rainstorm. I currently still have basically full coverage of snow...I anticipate the flash freeze to arrive in time to still have coverage of some sort and not just piles. If it can make it to Sunday that's 7 consecutive days of snow cover which for down here is pretty good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WVclimo Posted January 19, 2019 Share Posted January 19, 2019 About 2" of snow cover left here after a high of 41 today. Most of the day was foggy and then brightened to hazy toward sunset. Temp is slowly dropping now under broken skies, a light north wind and a rising barometer. Really hoping for the forecasted period of snow tomorrow before the change to liquid. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
anotherman Posted January 19, 2019 Share Posted January 19, 2019 I have a theory about the warnings. I think they are overcompensating for the November bust. At least up here. People were pissed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted January 19, 2019 Share Posted January 19, 2019 The Nams are toasty. Even out this way. Just not a very cold air mass to start with. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paxpatriot Posted January 19, 2019 Share Posted January 19, 2019 What was CTP basing their forecast on, Deep Thunder??? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastCoast NPZ Posted January 19, 2019 Share Posted January 19, 2019 18 minutes ago, clskinsfan said: The Nams are toasty. Even out this way. Just not a very cold air mass to start with. Its 37f with a 32 DP currently. Hell, forget staying below freezing tomorrow; I dont see how we even get to freezing. Little perplexed by our forecast for WSW and high of 32 during the "event". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yeoman Posted January 19, 2019 Share Posted January 19, 2019 2 hours ago, snowmagnet said: I’m not sure what happened, but the NWS now has us no higher than 34 all weekend in Fairfax. Snow, rain, sleet and freezing rain. We were supposed to be in the 50’s. If this is accurate, we should be under an Advisory at least. I’ve seen many storms here that continues snow and sleet when it was supposed to change to rain. I won’t be surprised if we stay frozen for much of this. Even after the rain, a flash freeze on wet roads is going to be a mess on Sunday and Monday You should sue NWS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yeoman Posted January 19, 2019 Share Posted January 19, 2019 27 minutes ago, anotherman said: Weenies were pissed. Fixed that for you Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yeoman Posted January 19, 2019 Share Posted January 19, 2019 1 hour ago, WEATHER53 said: Not everyone True - I wrote it off as 40 degree rain Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted January 19, 2019 Share Posted January 19, 2019 2 hours ago, snowmagnet said: I’m not sure what happened, but the NWS now has us no higher than 34 all weekend in Fairfax. Snow, rain, sleet and freezing rain. We were supposed to be in the 50’s. If this is accurate, we should be under an Advisory at least. I’ve seen many storms here that continues snow and sleet when it was supposed to change to rain. I won’t be surprised if we stay frozen for much of this. Even after the rain, a flash freeze on wet roads is going to be a mess on Sunday and Monday Flash freezes are urban legend. Not happening. But fun to imagine. It will dry out before that happens. For this I am certain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted January 19, 2019 Share Posted January 19, 2019 21 minutes ago, BristowWx said: Flash freezes are urban legend. Not happening. But fun to imagine. It will dry out before that happens. For this I am certain. The roads yeah. But at least whatever is left of my snow pack will turn into a glacier. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted January 19, 2019 Share Posted January 19, 2019 2 minutes ago, clskinsfan said: The roads yeah. But at least whatever is left of my snow pack will turn into a glacier. This I agree. Glacier snow piles. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BaltimoreWxGuy Posted January 19, 2019 Share Posted January 19, 2019 Based on latest NWS discussion it sounds like they may drop or downgrade some of the warnings and advisories tomorrow morning. We’ll see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGolfBro Posted January 19, 2019 Share Posted January 19, 2019 I’ll be in Pittsburgh tomorrow. If we rain here it will probably be a big warm rainstorm at home. I’ll post obs if i get the chance. Hoping for an overperformer Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted January 19, 2019 Share Posted January 19, 2019 Interesting, 6z GFS gives some snow on the back end Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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