yoda Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 2 minutes ago, BaltimoreWxGuy said: They seem to be being overly cautious..I guess maybe they think colder ground temps will come into play? Or the shutdown has mentally drained them. I don’t see any model that supports 1” of snow around Baltimore currently Most of the warnings are for ice and little snow/sleet Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 3 minutes ago, WEATHER53 said: I think we gust to 50 around DC with sustained at 25-30 for hours. Who has the date of that arctic plastering frontal squall from several years ago? Feb. 14, 2015...yes, literally Valentine's Day. Front went through on a blast of wind and those snow squalls. I got about 2" from that in the space of an hour or so. Though the squalls were not wide-spread...several areas got little or nothing...depended on where you were. The following day it was still windy and in the teens. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 3 minutes ago, WEATHER53 said: I think we gust to 50 around DC with sustained at 25-30 for hours. Who has the date of that arctic plastering frontal squall from several years ago? 2/14/15 was the intense snow squall. 2/13/17 had an great wind-driven rain squall Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
notvirga! Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 NWS Point and click forecast doesn't have it getting above 32 Saturday or Sunday in my neck of the woods Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowmagnet Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 The NWS forecast for Fairfax is snow with rain and snow on Saturday, changing to rain Saturday night, with a high of 41 before dropping through the day on Sunday. That is significantly colder than the 50’s that was forecasted earlier in the week. My concern is the icing Sunday and Monday, even in this area, from the rain plus the melted snow. I would think there would be more advisories on Sunday for our area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WEATHER53 Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 Models having hard time with lurking arctic blast, snow cover, and assertive cold high pressures in general perhaps we spike in next two hours but forecasts yesterday for this afternoon were highs in upper 40’s and were in upper 30’s so far. This is not garden variety cold lurking and really any high pressure that we have had for these events has been suppressive. There have definitely been stone cold cutters but we are not in that kind of pattern now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BaltimoreWxGuy Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 8 minutes ago, yoda said: Most of the warnings are for ice and little snow/sleet I know but I read the headline, up to 1” of snow in BaltimoreI also don’t think it makes sense that northern Baltimore county is in a warning but northern Harford is just an advisory. Having lived up this way, those areas typically get the same type of weather in winter storms. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WEATHER53 Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 10 minutes ago, Always in Zugzwang said: Feb. 14, 2015...yes, literally Valentine's Day. Front went through on a blast of wind and those snow squalls. I got about 2" from that in the space of an hour or so. Though the squalls were not wide-spread...several areas got little or nothing...depended on where you were. The following day it was still windy and in the teens. Thanks. It was wet and sideways like out of a fire hose, 1” in 22 minutes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 Busting about 10 degrees low in Charlottesville today due to fog and snow cover. Maybe I see a flake tomorrow morning? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 4 minutes ago, BaltimoreWxGuy said: I know but I read the headline, up to 1” of snow in BaltimoreI also don’t think it makes sense that northern Baltimore county is in a warning but northern Harford is just an advisory. Having lived up this way, those areas typically get the same type of weather in winter storms. the warning vs advisory is for ice not snow N Carroll and Baltimore - 1/4 ice, 1-3 snow/sleet N Harford - 1/10 ice 1-2 snow/sleet Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AfewUniversesBelowNormal Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 25 minutes ago, notvirga! said: Winter storm warnings up for northern Baltimore County and other parts of Maryland. I'm shocked. Maybe all the models are wrong. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
notvirga! Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 I'm sure the concern is ice; I just wasn't expecting warning level accretion with heavy rain and marginal temps. But we shall see I guess. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 4 minutes ago, notvirga! said: I'm sure the concern is ice; I just wasn't expecting warning level accretion with heavy rain and marginal temps. But we shall see I guess. the warning text says until 6am sunday. i haven't looked too closely today at the models, but i was under the impression the northern areas would hang on to the cold longer before everyone is pouring rain. i thought the warning made sense. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattskiva Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 1 hour ago, nj2va said: NWS Pitt going with 4-12” for Garrett County (from south to north), 4-6” for Canaan, and 0.1-0.15” ice accretion (as of their last update which was 3am today). Not really buying that. I get the idea that any CAD would scour out more quickly (or never exist at all) at 3200 feet, but we're not talking about CAD with the snow scenario, and even if sea level at that latitude is in the 40s, it seems unlikely that the huge different in elevation would result in so much less accumulation in Tucker than in Garrett. In the vast majority of scenarios, Canaan sees more accumulation than Garrett (though there are certainly some exceptions). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
schinz Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 21 minutes ago, AfewUniversesBelowNormal said: Maybe all the models are wrong. Or maybe they have foretasted the weather for Northern Maryland long enough to know that the models are almost always too quick in scouring out low level cold air. I rememeber many instances in Westminster that the temperature never went above freezing even when all the models had it doing so hours earlier. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Steve25 Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 I'd rather be in Baltimore than NYC for this storm. At least I know well in advance that this is mostly a rain threat down here. They're on the edge of their seats up there. Honestly based on the models, no matter what they get on the front end, it looks like it'll change to a HEAVY rain and that sounds nasty. Boston looks like they're right on the edge of either a monster snowstorm or changing to heavy rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vastateofmind Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 35 minutes ago, mappy said: the warning text says until 6am sunday. i haven't looked too closely today at the models, but i was under the impression the northern areas would hang on to the cold longer before everyone is pouring rain. i thought the warning made sense. Currently 37/32 here. The 1.2"-1.5" that fell overnight has long melted away, but we still have about 2/3 of the snowpack from last weekend on the ground here, which means ~2"-3" where it still exists. Interesting that forecast called for temps in low-mid 40s today, but we're just not getting there...probably has no impact on what happens tomorrow/Sunday (especially here in NoVA), but...interesting. So, @mappy, just what DO you have on the ground at home in terms of snow? I've caught spotty updates in several topics over past 1-2 days, but still don't have a clear picture on what white stuff (if any) is actually on the ground in your area, on over to @psuhoffman-land after last weekend and last evening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rd9108 Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MD Snow Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 I believe cranky posted something about how the NAM's were being tossed today...but who cares... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scraff Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 21 minutes ago, MD Snow said: I believe cranky posted something about how the NAM's were being tossed today...but who cares... I’ll take my central MD 2” and like it. Eta: Never mind. I want what the WRF is dealing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 31 minutes ago, vastateofmind said: Currently 37/32 here. The 1.2"-1.5" that fell overnight has long melted away, but we still have about 2/3 of the snowpack from last weekend on the ground here, which means ~2"-3" where it still exists. Interesting that forecast called for temps in low-mid 40s today, but we're just not getting there...probably has no impact on what happens tomorrow/Sunday (especially here in NoVA), but...interesting. So, @mappy, just what DO you have on the ground at home in terms of snow? I've caught spotty updates in several topics over past 1-2 days, but still don't have a clear picture on what white stuff (if any) is actually on the ground in your area, on over to @psuhoffman-land after last weekend and last evening. i can't speak for PSU, but I picked up 2.8" last weekend. Before last night's snow, i was probably 80% snow cover still, but grass was showing in spots. Picked up another inch overnight, so just a fresh coating. I imagine a lot will be melted by the time I get home this evening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rd9108 Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 11 minutes ago, MD Snow said: I believe cranky posted something about how the NAM's were being tossed today...but who cares... Cranky is not a real met. Not saying hes wrong because some NWS branches did mention it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AfewUniversesBelowNormal Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 56 minutes ago, schinz said: Or maybe they have foretasted the weather for Northern Maryland long enough to know that the models are almost always too quick in scouring out low level cold air. I rememeber many instances in Westminster that the temperature never went above freezing even when all the models had it doing so hours earlier. 18z NAM would have to be way wrong too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BaltimoreWxGuy Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 1 hour ago, mappy said: the warning vs advisory is for ice not snow N Carroll and Baltimore - 1/4 ice, 1-3 snow/sleet N Harford - 1/10 ice 1-2 snow/sleet I understand that but in my opinion if northern Baltimore is likely to get 1/4 of ice, so will Northern Harford. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MD Snow Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 6 minutes ago, Rd9108 said: Cranky is not a real met. Not saying hes wrong because some NWS branches did mention it. Yup. He posted the NWS updates tossing it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 8 minutes ago, Rd9108 said: Cranky is not a real met. Not saying hes wrong because some NWS branches did mention it. Crank posted directly from WPC about the 12z model run. its one thing to get on him for some of this thoughts, but this isnt one of those times. 3 minutes ago, BaltimoreWxGuy said: I understand that but in my opinion if northern Baltimore is likely to get 1/4 of ice, so will Northern Harford. models suggest otherwise. northern harford will get warmer faster than places further north and west. Pretty sure I will trust LWX on this one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MD Snow Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 18z hrrr at 30hrs...use at your own peril... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 15 minutes ago, MD Snow said: 18z hrrr at 30hrs...use at your own peril... I can extrapolate NE MD being pummeled by that. Congrats @Beachin! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scraff Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 4 minutes ago, Cobalt said: I can extrapolate NE MD being pummeled by that. Congrats @Beachin! Yeah, but what about Carbondale, PA? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 1 hour ago, mattskiva said: Not really buying that. I get the idea that any CAD would scour out more quickly (or never exist at all) at 3200 feet, but we're not talking about CAD with the snow scenario, and even if sea level at that latitude is in the 40s, it seems unlikely that the huge different in elevation would result in so much less accumulation in Tucker than in Garrett. In the vast majority of scenarios, Canaan sees more accumulation than Garrett (though there are certainly some exceptions). This is the kind of setup where Garrett does better than Tucker and it’s mostly due to the fact that Garrett is more north. Go just across Garrett into the next county in PA and it’s the same story there...they’ll get 6-10” vs Garrett 3-6”...latitude helps with this setup. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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