Bob Chill Posted January 16, 2019 Share Posted January 16, 2019 Northern tier might make a comeback. Everything is working against us but we still have a path to victory. Keep your expectations low and your umbrella handy. Miracles do happen but we used one up last weekend so do whatever it takes to make this one pad some stats. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 16, 2019 Share Posted January 16, 2019 why are we talking about it in the long range thread. One more Euro shift like that, and we will be back into a winter storm(which was stolen from us btw---remember Euro had 30 inches for us) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AfewUniversesBelowNormal Posted January 16, 2019 Share Posted January 16, 2019 I thought you would have some analysis.. the Euro is colder, and the NAM at 84hr showing snow is a good sign, but it's not really an ice storm pattern, having seen many ice storms. GFS is warm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 16, 2019 Share Posted January 16, 2019 10 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: Northern tier might make a comeback. Everything is working against us but we still have a path to victory. Keep your expectations low and your umbrella handy. Miracles do happen but we used one up last weekend so do whatever it takes to make this one pad some stats. give us your keys to victory like Steve and phil Chenier do. Although they have a much harder job Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lpaschall Posted January 16, 2019 Share Posted January 16, 2019 So we have the Ukie, Euro, and JMA in our camp right? (Our meaning mine....Northern MD) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowmagnet Posted January 16, 2019 Share Posted January 16, 2019 We’ve got plenty of time to bring it south. Look how far north we moved the last storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted January 16, 2019 Share Posted January 16, 2019 I'll be in McHenry this weekend...Euro is almost, if not all, frozen out there. And those lows Monday morning are pretty wild. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted January 16, 2019 Share Posted January 16, 2019 13 minutes ago, Ji said: why are we talking about it in the long range thread. One more Euro shift like that, and we will be back into a winter storm(which was stolen from us btw---remember Euro had 30 inches for us) Does that count sleet and zr as snow? If not, it's already looking pretty good for the M/D crowd. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 16, 2019 Share Posted January 16, 2019 4 minutes ago, Fozz said: Does that count sleet and zr as snow? If not, it's already looking pretty good for the M/D crowd. im counting everything as snow to make me feel better right now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGolfBro Posted January 16, 2019 Share Posted January 16, 2019 17 minutes ago, Ji said: give us your keys to victory like Steve and phil Chenier do. Although they have a much harder job I miss Chenier every time i turn on the wiz. Nothing against Kara but Steve and Phil together was s magical combo Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted January 16, 2019 Share Posted January 16, 2019 33 minutes ago, Ji said: why are we talking about it in the long range thread. One more Euro shift like that, and we will be back into a winter storm(which was stolen from us btw---remember Euro had 30 inches for us) good luck! Over in Columbus we're just thankful this thing developed a vestigial tail Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted January 16, 2019 Share Posted January 16, 2019 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted January 16, 2019 Share Posted January 16, 2019 Is this where we track the wind chills? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 16, 2019 Author Share Posted January 16, 2019 41 is my new favorite number Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted January 16, 2019 Share Posted January 16, 2019 1 minute ago, Bob Chill said: 41 is my new favorite number What does that mean? Lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 16, 2019 Author Share Posted January 16, 2019 Just now, Maestrobjwa said: What does that mean? Lol It means we have a 1 out of 51 chance Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 16, 2019 Share Posted January 16, 2019 1 minute ago, Bob Chill said: 41 is my new favorite number A little warning next time before you post explicit material!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
smokeybandit Posted January 16, 2019 Share Posted January 16, 2019 "Member 41" sounds like some club in NYC or a store brand line of clothing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ifindppl Posted January 16, 2019 Share Posted January 16, 2019 The panel is "Member 41". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted January 16, 2019 Share Posted January 16, 2019 1 hour ago, Bob Chill said: Northern tier might make a comeback. Everything is working against us but we still have a path to victory. Keep your expectations low and your umbrella handy. Miracles do happen but we used one up last weekend so do whatever it takes to make this one pad some stats. Keep the ball down and let's turn two!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted January 16, 2019 Share Posted January 16, 2019 Just now, Maestrobjwa said: What does that mean? Lol That is an image from Member 41 of the 12z Euro ensemble at HR 96, 12z Sunday. It is showing everyone north of US 50 below freezing at the surface. It's a great image, but just one out of 51 members. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted January 16, 2019 Share Posted January 16, 2019 And they said 42 was the answer to the meaning of life, the universe, and everything. Turns out they were one number off! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
J.Mike Posted January 16, 2019 Share Posted January 16, 2019 58 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: MLK weekend event thread started. Voodoo dolls and witchcraft or whatever else you can think of to avoid all rain would be good. My $100 bet is still on for this storm. 8"+ and Metro shuts down. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted January 16, 2019 Share Posted January 16, 2019 this is quickly turning into a CWG boom or bust scenario....right now best guess is 0 - 5" confidence level from what storm to my bad Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted January 16, 2019 Share Posted January 16, 2019 2 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said: That is an image from Member 41 of the 12z Euro ensemble at HR 96, 12z Sunday. It is showing everyone north of US 50 below freezing at the surface. It's a great image, but just one out of 51 members. Better odds vs the powerball ........ I take it ! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Roger Smith Posted January 16, 2019 Share Posted January 16, 2019 These would be my reasons for optimism, but even so I would currently say 30% chance of 5" snowfall as far south as I-95. A lot of things have to go right to get this to be a mostly snow event in this area. First thing would be for the leading wave to drop 1-3" snow over the bare ground between your fading snow pack and the more permanent one further north. Second good sign is that the weekend low will form out of the base of another Pacific low swerving north, so is not going to be subject to easy modelling for several days yet. Looking west, there is remnant snow cover from the last event to weaken warm air advection into the plains states. Every degree south we can find this low forming over OK-AR the better your chances. Third positive thought is that another potent arctic high is coming into play for the weekend storm and each model I looked at seems to respond a bit sluggishly to the possibility of cold air building up over PA-NJ into the mid-Atlantic region in advance of the storm. Old school, one would draw the arctic front quite a bit further south than the 0 C 850 isotherm which tells me that this weekend storm could be running into some well-entrenched colder air. Fourth good sign is the steady deepening trend for central pressure after the low reaches TN. A steadily deepening low will continue to pull in the cold air on the east side of the mountains until it reaches south-central VA. This should allow some early portion of the precip to be snow. If we can find (I don't like to say get because that's a bogus process) -- if we can find this low just edging south of the model tracks, continuing to deepen nicely, then it could drop 8-12 inches of snow at least north of I-95. A lot of things have to go right. But then they all did last weekend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 16, 2019 Share Posted January 16, 2019 7 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: 41 is my new favorite number wes unseld and jeff ruland? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted January 16, 2019 Share Posted January 16, 2019 39 is a way better number. FYI 2/51 odds. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted January 16, 2019 Share Posted January 16, 2019 Didn't see 0z, but 12z EPS is definitely south of yesterday's 12z. Maybe ~100mi? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 16, 2019 Author Share Posted January 16, 2019 3 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: Didn't see 0z, but 12z EPS is definitely south of yesterday's 12z. Maybe ~100mi? The spread is fairly tight and very supportive of the 12z op. For yours and my yard... eps ain't looking too good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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