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Winter Begins Jan 20th AWT


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Just now, ineedsnow said:

If some places do get a half inch or more there's going to be more problems  than usual.. the wind should kick up pretty good as the storm departs

Yeah that's interesting. So often with ZR we start oozing above 32F and melting stuff before the wind kicks up. 

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Just now, CT Rain said:

He's the worst. How about the first 0.3" or 0.4" of liquid when 850s start out at like -8C lol

Probably concerned the trends continue right up until real time.  I’ve certainly seen it happen before.  I think it was a bit extreme of a decision this early though  

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5 minutes ago, CT Rain said:

He's the worst. How about the first 0.3" or 0.4" of liquid when 850s start out at like -8C lol

The front end thump really hasn't changed that much on these warmer runs aloft...the impact on them seems to be more after 06z there and 09z up here....how far north in penetrates. But it still keeps going in the 6-8" range here...occasionally a 10 spot from some guidance and seems to be consistently 4-6 down in N CT. The warmer runs seem to erode it more in S CT and then cut it back in N MA to S NH a bit.

 

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8 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

Oh 32.1 in 2010 was one never forgotten or even his Euro pay melt was a classic.  This might be the burp runs that Scott Simard loved. Watch for a Messenger correction 

I wish Scott was still around to bang the RUC, Him and I had some great PM's, RIP

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5 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

The front end thump really hasn't changed that much on these warmer runs aloft...the impact on them seems to be more after 06z there and 09z up here....how far north in penetrates. But it still keeps going in the 6-8" range here...occasionally a 10 spot from some guidance and seems to be consistently 4-6 down in N CT. The warmer runs seem to erode it more in S CT and then cut it back in N MA to S NH a bit.

 

Yeah that's the thing - the thump hasn't changed much. Cut back a bit but still not anywhere close to a shut out. 

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32 minutes ago, CT Rain said:

Yeah that's interesting. So often with ZR we start oozing above 32F and melting stuff before the wind kicks up. 

The wind kinda helps knock the ice off the trees.....like if you took a stick and shook it, the ice fractures and falls off. And then if it's even slightly windy during the storm, ice doesn't accumulate really. 

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