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Winter Begins Jan 20th AWT


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those that Mitch guy post here?

VermonsterWx's avatar

10m

 

00z GFS is flat out wrong with this depiction IMO. 2 meter temperatures on this model are total garbage. There's positively NO way that it rains up to the northern border of MA with so much low level cold. Sleet maybe with freezing rain south of the Mass Pike

image.png

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Just now, dendrite said:

I expect the GFS to never catch onto it. It'll play catch-up right until then end. I mean most of the models do anyway even in in-situ events up here. The sfc cold almost always overperforms north of the warm front.

Even much colder models like the NAM put ORH at like 22/5 before the precip moves in, and then just a few hours later by 06z they are 25F and then are 30F by 09z....really hard to believe. Where did the single digit dewpoints go? They didn't go into wetbulbing apparently....lol.

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5 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Even much colder models like the NAM put ORH at like 22/5 before the precip moves in, and then just a few hours later by 06z they are 25F and then are 30F by 09z....really hard to believe. Where did the single digit dewpoints go? They didn't go into wetbulbing apparently....lol.

I mean unless there's a reason for this thing to track over I-84 it seems hard to buy that track. Maybe there is and I'm missing something.

Take this sucker over Long Island and set up the coastal front offshore you're going to be dealing with a nice stream of Arctic air.... remember those time-height cross sections Dendrite posted??

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3 minutes ago, dendrite said:

If it's correct it will probably make for a solid Will melt job.

That would be a first to ever see a sfc low go into an arctic high like that over interior SNE despite strong confluence to the north.

 

The annoying part about it is that it sort-of kind-of has the right idea at 30 hours....you can see it's trying to drag the isobars out to the east along the sfc front....but then it just totally loses that sig in the next frame.

 

Jan19_00zGFS30h.png

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1 minute ago, CT Rain said:

I mean unless there's a reason for this thing to track over I-84 it seems hard to buy that track. Maybe there is and I'm missing something.

Take this sucker over Long Island and set up the coastal front offshore you're going to be dealing with a nice stream of Arctic air.... remember those time-height cross sections Dendrite posted??

Just went to coolwx it has .30 of ZR for BDL  on the 0z NAM ...18Z had none hmmm

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2 minutes ago, dendrite said:

I don't think I'd make any changes until seeing the euro. I mean, we're talking the GFS here people.

also be watching the mesos for any dramatic moves further NW but yah Euro holding serve would be nice.   No matter what happens, at least it's a lock that my yard will have exponentially more snow otg Sunday than it does tonight. 

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1 minute ago, SnowGoose69 said:

LOL Cranky pretty much just took all snow out of coastal SNE.  He thinks it’s the convection pumping the ridge that’s causing problems but I’m not buying that theory 

He's the worst. How about the first 0.3" or 0.4" of liquid when 850s start out at like -8C lol

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