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Winter Begins Jan 20th AWT


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4 minutes ago, CT Rain said:

Probably getting a lot of snow in low levels. Who knows, probably some dendrite production with sleet from above lol

Funny you said that. I was thinking this could be low visibility sleet because of accompanying heavier plates and needles in that transition axis

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6 minutes ago, CT Rain said:

Probably getting a lot of snow in low levels. Who knows, probably some dendrite production with sleet from above lol

OT, but these time-height plots really show what you were talking about with the cold shot centered in the low levels. There wouldn't be much mixing above 925 if that verifies.

tempacon.png

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5 minutes ago, CT Rain said:

FWIW the surface low is farther northwest from 18z. 

Would be an odd surface low track.

I'm giving precisely zero weight to the GFS sfc track and the low level temps. We'll see soon enough if I'm wrong, but this will go down as one its worst performances in years IMHO. This might be worse than 2008 when it had a crappier resolution...at least in 2008, it kept ORH around 40F. It's actually tickling 50F at 42 hours there.

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2 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

It’s overdone but something is being sampled that is making all guidance amped more and more today.

The damming sucks because I think the high is too far west.  At least the core of it.  We’ve seen winds down here for LGA go from 050-070 during the storm to 080-100.  So there is basically no CAD signature at all anymore 

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2 minutes ago, Bostonseminole said:

gfs keep moving that freezing rain line north also, so something to watch.

What’s the chances that we get a ice storm up here? Rather than what has been touted snow to sleet with minimal ZR? I have people working late tomorrow night 1 AM and I don’t want them to be sliding off roads.

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1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said:

I'm giving precisely zero weight to the GFS sfc track and the low level temps. We'll see soon enough if I'm wrong, but this will go down as one its worst performances in years IMHO. This might be worse than 2008 when it had a crappier resolution...at least in 2008, it kept ORH around 40F. It's actually tickling 50F at 42 hours there.

I expect the GFS to never catch onto it. It'll play catch-up right until then end. I mean most of the models do anyway even in in-situ events up here. The sfc cold almost always overperforms north of the warm front.

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2 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

I'm giving precisely zero weight to the GFS sfc track and the low level temps. We'll see soon enough if I'm wrong, but this will go down as one its worst performances in years IMHO. This might be worse than 2008 when it had a crappier resolution...at least in 2008, it kept ORH around 40F. It's actually tickling 50F at 42 hours there.

Are you saying I shouldn't believe the 33* surface temp it's giving me at 7:00a.m. on Sunday?

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