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Winter Begins Jan 20th AWT


40/70 Benchmark

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4 minutes ago, OceanStWx said:

I don’t like to deviate too far from climo ratios until I see the 20:1 whites of its eyes.

Yup.  And I do think someone could see some high ratio snow in this, most likely under any meso-band that forms.  That's when you can get into 20" out 1" of liquid.  But you could also get 12" of just old fashioned storm snow and it's pretty much the same effect.

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7 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

Yeah that's what I used for my forecast.  13-15:1 and 0.7-1.0" QPF... 8-14"? 

The band location in NNE will be key.  Climo wise I do like Southern Adirondacks, through S/C VT and into the Lakes Region of NH and then IZG and you.  Other guidance though has it further north.  But since I do think the low will track a little further south than models show (not much, but a little) due to the depth of the low level cold...I think the former is more likely.

Yeah, I'm thinking those ranges as well, Also i'm expecting some tics back SE (We hope) We're getting close on some of these runs to getting H85 into the +2 + 4c zone for a 3 or so hr period, So that would cut into some totals with sleet if its not at the height of the storm where we may be able to wash that out.

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1 minute ago, WxBlue said:

Yep, this would bust forecasts hard in S NH

I ran a couple skew-t's for my hood and it showed what might be a flirtation with sleet, but it was only razor thin and only briefly.  So much for all the excitement of the NAM runs last night.  Hopefully the GFS and EC will hold.

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2 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

That map looks too low for S NH. AFN/ASH are all snow through 12z with over an inch of liquid equivalent.

Looking at soundings, that'd be roughly 6 hours of sleet. Still gonna get a foot on that run given the snow-to-liquid ratio, but not sure we'll hit NWS forecast of 18" in this scenario. Probably wouldn't be a major bust then.

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3 minutes ago, CT Rain said:

Everything has trended warmer in the boundary layer. Even the RPM is bringing the surface 0c isotherm to Hartford for a while in the morning Sunday. Not sure if that's overdone but it is notable that everything has come north some this evening. 

Last night it was all south so you upped amounts lol if HFD is above 32 I will be 35

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4 minutes ago, WxBlue said:

Looking at soundings, that'd be roughly 6 hours of sleet. Still gonna get a foot on that run given the snow-to-liquid ratio, but not sure we'll hit NWS forecast of 18" in this scenario. Probably wouldn't be a major bust then.

Here's probably a more accurate clown map (though prob a little too light near coast). Yeah, 18" is in trouble there I think on most guidance....but I'd expect you'll crack double digits pretty easily

 

 

Jan19_00zNAMclownmap.gif

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6 minutes ago, ineedsnow said:

I honestly think Kevin's big ice call might be correct even here.. but we'll  see

I see no way out from about RI / Mass border on SSW line to DXR. I think Ginx, me, anybody up into Union to Putnam down to Ryan to Iceberg to Spanks to Hoth are in deep doo doo. Euro ain’t gonna be wrong this close in. It’s prep time 

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Just now, Damage In Tolland said:

I see no way out from about RI / Mass border on SSW line to DXR. I think Ginx, me, anybody up into Union to Putnam down to Ryan to Iceberg to Spanks to Hoth are in deep doo doo. Euro ain’t gonna be wrong this close in. It’s prep time 

Further south in CT, yeah maybe....for you though:

 

Sleet.gif.c671b8ada83db2f6eed7cf2b16230601.gif

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