moneypitmike Posted January 19, 2019 Share Posted January 19, 2019 Congrats Brian and Jeff on the NAM! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted January 19, 2019 Share Posted January 19, 2019 0.3C at the sfc at HVN at the warmest. That's big signal for ZR given model biases. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 19, 2019 Share Posted January 19, 2019 2 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: BOS looks good through about 09z ad then 12z is pellets That’s 6 hours of 1-2/hour snow before the PL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted January 19, 2019 Share Posted January 19, 2019 51 minutes ago, dendrite said: Not perfect considering the warm layer around H75, but this definitely doesn't suck either. We'd probably get some very good growth in the cloud tops and then some riming in the meh layer. There's good growth in the lower omega too. I like the progs in Mass too. There's a brief period where many have sleet after falling through a +2C layer and then into -14C one. That is insane. That thermal gradient is crazy. Worth saving that one to the weenie folder. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 19, 2019 Share Posted January 19, 2019 1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: TBH, I'd rather have 9" of snow, then a ton of sleet...then 9" followed by a meteorological ego stroke amid P Sunny skies for having remained all snow. I'm going for pure frozen LE in this pack given my bare ground status. I'll be totally content with 8" of snow followed by a scalping that gives another 3-4" of sleet. We can pile up the currier and ives fluffer nutters all late January and February, but I want a big time base so I don't see grass until at least april fools day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 19, 2019 Share Posted January 19, 2019 Instead of cutting qpf, Nam ramping up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxeyeNH Posted January 19, 2019 Share Posted January 19, 2019 For me NAM 1.6" all snow All snow surface temp 10F. So I'll knock of 1/3 cause its the NAM and it brings me to 1" qpf. Ratio 15:1 thats 15". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted January 19, 2019 Share Posted January 19, 2019 3km is insane. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted January 19, 2019 Share Posted January 19, 2019 The NAM has slowly been figuring it out over the past 24 hours. Last night's 00z and 06z backed off quite a bit on QPF up north but the 12z/18z/00z have now been going in the right direction. A couple more runs and the QPF will match the EURO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted January 19, 2019 Share Posted January 19, 2019 2 minutes ago, wxeyeNH said: For me NAM 1.6" all snow All snow surface temp 10F. So I'll knock of 1/3 cause its the NAM and it brings me to 1" qpf. Ratio 15:1 thats 15". not sure you need to cut, other models are similar Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 19, 2019 Share Posted January 19, 2019 There's a funny irony about this in that the low has finally agreed upon to not come on land anywhere yet the ptype transition it's penetrating farther north west every recycle. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted January 19, 2019 Share Posted January 19, 2019 Just now, wxeyeNH said: For me NAM 1.6" all snow All snow surface temp 10F. So I'll knock of 1/3 cause its the NAM and it brings me to 1" qpf. Ratio 15:1 thats 15". The snow is going to end here with temps near 0F. BTV in the CPV funneling from the north may even be below zero while snowing. This is a vastly overlooked aspect of this... how cold it will be while snowing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxeyeNH Posted January 19, 2019 Share Posted January 19, 2019 Just now, Bostonseminole said: not sure you need to cut, other models are similar If I take 1.6" at 15:1 that's 24". What is realistic ratios for areas in CNE/NNE in a storm like this? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 19, 2019 Share Posted January 19, 2019 Pretty uniform qpf, North of the warm front........... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 19, 2019 Share Posted January 19, 2019 3k is colder. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 19, 2019 Share Posted January 19, 2019 3 minutes ago, powderfreak said: The NAM has slowly been figuring it out over the past 24 hours. Last night's 00z and 06z backed off quite a bit on QPF up north but the 12z/18z/00z have now been going in the right direction. A couple more runs and the QPF will match the EURO. Yea but didn’t the euro blast a warn layer all the way into southern Vermont? Btw I’m up in Killington this weekend so I have a rooting interest. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted January 19, 2019 Share Posted January 19, 2019 1 minute ago, wxeyeNH said: If I take 1.6" at 15:1 that's 24". What is realistic ratios for areas in CNE/NNE in a storm like this? 50:1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxBlue Posted January 19, 2019 Share Posted January 19, 2019 6 minutes ago, wxeyeNH said: If I take 1.6" at 15:1 that's 24". What is realistic ratios for areas in CNE/NNE in a storm like this? GYX has snow to liquid ratio map on their website and they're going with 15:1 for your area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 19, 2019 Share Posted January 19, 2019 4 minutes ago, wxeyeNH said: If I take 1.6" at 15:1 that's 24". What is realistic ratios for areas in CNE/NNE in a storm like this? 12-15:1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted January 19, 2019 Share Posted January 19, 2019 Just now, dryslot said: Pretty uniform qpf, North of the warm front........... Part of me thinks this QPF will trend north a bit given the other models, but then part of me also knows that the sharp QPF gradient is often where the fronto band likes to rot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted January 19, 2019 Share Posted January 19, 2019 6-12" Boston is the way to go. Going to be nasty. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxBlue Posted January 19, 2019 Share Posted January 19, 2019 Few hours of sleet into S NH on that NAM run. Probably gonna slash our 18" forecast to something like 8-12" front end snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoth Posted January 19, 2019 Share Posted January 19, 2019 Jimmy gon' rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mreaves Posted January 19, 2019 Share Posted January 19, 2019 1 minute ago, dryslot said: 12-15:1 What are the winds going to be like? If they are strong enough, couldn’t that reduce ratios? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted January 19, 2019 Share Posted January 19, 2019 1 minute ago, sbos_wx said: 6-12" Boston is the way to go. Going to be nasty. yeah, I'm sticking with 8-10 for here.. does not look like we will shift south much.. 8-10 sleet.. hopefully we can get something to pop next week and then that crazy stuff later next week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted January 19, 2019 Share Posted January 19, 2019 Just now, dryslot said: 12-15:1 Yeah that's what I used for my forecast. 13-15:1 and 0.7-1.0" QPF... 8-14"? The band location in NNE will be key. Climo wise I do like Southern Adirondacks, through S/C VT and into the Lakes Region of NH and then IZG and you. Other guidance though has it further north. But since I do think the low will track a little further south than models show (not much, but a little) due to the depth of the low level cold...I think the former is more likely. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted January 19, 2019 Share Posted January 19, 2019 45 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Man, I am surprised that the EURO is giving me 1.9" of QPF so late in the game.... The trend has definitely been down over the last few runs. Pretty classic trend honestly, rushing out to big QPF then settling towards reality. Will was banging 1-1.5” days ago, and that’s still the best forecast for all/mostly snow zones I think. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted January 19, 2019 Share Posted January 19, 2019 NAM has pinging up to me for about 30 minutes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted January 19, 2019 Share Posted January 19, 2019 Just now, powderfreak said: Yeah that's what I used for my forecast. 13-15:1 and 0.7-1.0" QPF... 8-14"? The band location in NNE will be key. Climo wise I do like Southern Adirondacks, through S/C VT and into the Lakes Region of NH and then IZG and you. Other guidance though has it further north. But since I do think the low will track a little further south than models show (not much, but a little) due to the depth of the low level cold...I think the former is more likely. I don’t like to deviate too far from climo ratios until I see the 20:1 whites of its eyes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted January 19, 2019 Share Posted January 19, 2019 18z was juicier ...QPF seems to be going up last two cycles and 18 in SNH was always ummm ... bullish Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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