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Winter Begins Jan 20th AWT


40/70 Benchmark

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20 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

I asked Ryan this yesterday but he must have missed it. What is the accretion rate on snow that is clinging to branches power lines. Seems like bare surface would be better. 

Not sure I’ve seen a study on that specifically.

Snow will absorb the rain before it freezes, so it can be equally damaging to the canopies. You probably get less run off with covered covered trees, but more true ice with bare trees.

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I’m looking at the storm in a couple ways.

A classic SWFE is like a 6-10” storm. This is definitely amped up from typical, but how much higher should we be throwing snow totals? I wouldn’t want to be that far outside a 12-18” range.

Also from strong WAA driven snow, it’s really hard to get ratios to deviate that much from climo.

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47 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

Good trend if you like ice damage. 

ugghhh, the recent trends have not been good. I think this Euro run gets me up to 35 now, so that might help out a bit. However, when the last second SE tick happens it will park us at 30 with a ton of rain...

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11 minutes ago, OceanStWx said:

Not sure I’ve seen a study on that specifically.

Snow will absorb the rain before it freezes, so it can be equally damaging to the canopies. You probably get less run off with covered covered trees, but more true ice with bare trees.

Thanks today I was thinking more weight than if bare trees.

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12 minutes ago, OceanStWx said:

I’m looking at the storm in a couple ways.

A classic SWFE is like a 6-10” storm. This is definitely amped up from typical, but how much higher should we be throwing snow totals? I wouldn’t want to be that far outside a 12-18” range.

Also from strong WAA driven snow, it’s really hard to get ratios to deviate that much from climo.

Wicked upglide

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13 minutes ago, OceanStWx said:

I’m looking at the storm in a couple ways.

A classic SWFE is like a 6-10” storm. This is definitely amped up from typical, but how much higher should we be throwing snow totals? I wouldn’t want to be that far outside a 12-18” range.

Also from strong WAA driven snow, it’s really hard to get ratios to deviate that much from climo.

Hybrid, Certainly not your typical SWFE, Cross between a Miller B and SWFE would be my label.

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Not perfect considering the warm layer around H75, but this definitely doesn't suck either. We'd probably get some very good growth in the cloud tops and then some riming in the meh layer. There's good growth in the lower omega too.

omeg.png

 

I like the progs in Mass too. There's a brief period where many have sleet after falling through a +2C layer and then into -14C one.

tempa.png

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19 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

Wicked upglide

Yeah, WAA will be serious. But as Brian notes, even with that lift we’ll get some riming in the warm nose that will chip away at ratios. Probably also going to get some fracturing of flakes with such strong lift. 10-15:1 should be fine. More than that and I’m skeptical.

6 minutes ago, dendrite said:

Not perfect considering the warm layer around H75, but this definitely doesn't suck either. We'd probably get some very good growth in the cloud tops and then some riming in the meh layer. There's good growth in the lower omega too.

I like the progs in Mass too. There's a brief period where many have sleet after falling through a +2C layer and then into -14C one.

 

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43 minutes ago, Spanks45 said:

ugghhh, the recent trends have not been good. I think this Euro run gets me up to 35 now, so that might help out a bit. However, when the last second SE tick happens it will park us at 30 with a ton of rain...

You further south than me but I highly doubt you or I get a above freezing. 

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50 minutes ago, OceanStWx said:

I’m looking at the storm in a couple ways.

A classic SWFE is like a 6-10” storm. This is definitely amped up from typical, but how much higher should we be throwing snow totals? I wouldn’t want to be that far outside a 12-18” range.

Also from strong WAA driven snow, it’s really hard to get ratios to deviate that much from climo.

Man, I am surprised that the EURO is giving me 1.9" of QPF so late in the game....

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