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Winter Begins Jan 20th AWT


40/70 Benchmark

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Just now, OceanStWx said:

Was just looking this up for someone.

Radial accretion is like 20-40% efficient (median 28%). And flat surface is like 60-80% efficient (median 72%).

I asked Ryan this yesterday but he must have missed it. What is the accretion rate on snow that is clinging to branches power lines. Seems like bare surface would be better. 

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8 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

I love how the euro continues to defecate on pike south snow. 

As at least a couple of people said today it’s fairly rare on this sort of storm to see the NAM and Euro be that different but they definitely are.  Especially in the corridor from BDL-PVD down to the coast and down in parts of my area.  The Euro hasn’t really had any massive busts this winter outside of the northern edge of the December MA snow event so maybe it’s due  

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4 hours ago, MaineJayhawk said:

You'd have to ask him why he is forecasting that much.  It's not a surprise models are ratcheting down the qpf if you pay attention to the knowledgeable folks here.  12" is great, let's enjoy it!

I’ll say just check our first snowfall map we posted. I take great pride in the fact that I actually made a forecast that night and didn’t rip and read modeled QPF.

Blends are great, but you also need to recognize model biases, and high medium range QPF is one.

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4 minutes ago, OceanStWx said:

I’ll say just check our first snowfall map we posted. I take great pride in the fact that I actually made a forecast that night and didn’t rip and read modeled QPF.

Blends are great, but you also need to recognize model biases, and high medium range QPF is one.

That was a good call with that map a day or so ago actually, I think i asked you if you were going with 12-16 or so, And that's what you had, Still looks like that's a safe bet even with some sleet involved along the coast if that does come to fruition.

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