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Winter Begins Jan 20th AWT


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11 minutes ago, moneypitmike said:

Once again, BOX forgets that their western zone borders VT.  Sigh.


Overall...snow accumulations of 3 to 7 inches appear reasonable
south of the MA turnpike with 7 to 12 inches north of the Pike. The
threat for 12 to 15 inches of snow will likely be confined to areas
near the NH border.  Based on these latest accumulations...have
opted to upgrade to a Winter Storm Warning north of the MA Turnpike.
Where criteria is more marginal have opted to hold onto the Winter
Storm Watch and defer to the next shift.

When will you learn?  Nobody knows about or cares about NW MA.

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Just now, Typhoon Tip said:

amplitude doesn't necessity warmth though - ...

just sayn'

This run got warmer aloft....we already know the sfc isn't gonna warm much except far SE and maybe south coast. That said, I'm still expecting it to overperform on the cold side though.

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7 hours ago, Greg said:

A classic arctic high penetrates all layers not just the top and BL but mid levels also so they are not easily scoured out. 

The key is really high position. The over the top and northeast look allows flow to be easterly into the mountains.

That works twofold: one rising air into the mountains cools adiabatically, two pressure gradient is direct north to south. Northeast flow develops and feeds the low level cold (as can evaporational cooling).

As long as the high stays in that position there is little mechanism to scour out low level cold.

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17 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

This run got warmer aloft....we already know the sfc isn't gonna warm much except far SE and maybe south coast. That said, I'm still expecting it to overperform on the cold side though.

Let’s torch the literal heck outta the mid levels and ice up the forum 

me and blizz only ones clapping 

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7 hours ago, wxextreme said:

GYX tends to over predict, especially in Southern NH.  I live in Northern MA and the general discrepancy between BOX and GYX (even though I am walking distance from the NH boarder) can be about 2-4 inches.  I'd say you would be safe with your call, but probably toward the lower end.  

I want to say something snarky, but we do. So does BOX. Since we started probabilistic snow we’ve documented this.

My SOO’s gut check is: is there is any real chance that your forecast is too low? If you say no, then you have a high bias.

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