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Winter Begins Jan 20th AWT


40/70 Benchmark

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5 minutes ago, Baroclinic Zone said:

Stop. Collaborate and listen.  Ice is on a brand new mission.

zr_acc.us_ne.thumb.png.dd2ba905cc24148dc31b9c3a40acecb0.png

I would be apt to say these numbers are inflated due to inherit issues within the modeling dynamics.  For one, the icing is (from my understanding) interpolated over time period and does not capture what happens during intermediate time steps.  

Not to mention, the upper air temperatures aloft have been in question as to how much warm air will be overrunning.  Because the thermal soundings are in question, the ice accumulation rate forecasts will be questionable at best.  I would expect these numbers to fall as modeling time intervals become more refined.  

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26 minutes ago, Great Snow 1717 said:

Do you know any mets at TWC? They certainly knew there was less than a 1 percent chance of parts of the area receiving 3+ feet.

I do know a few mets there....but I'll admit TWC is a bit of a different animal than a local weather forecaster. I could totally see corporate there putting up more extreme graphics.

 

But pretty much every TV met I know has almost total autonomy on their own forecast graphics. Maybe there are some bad stations that force them to put bad graphics out, but I personally don't know any of them.

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9 minutes ago, dryslot said:

12-18" may be to low after this 18z Nam run..............:lol:

I have been thinking the snow amounts have just been too high up here.  NAM is giving me almost 2" again.  Even cutting those down by 1/3 but figuring a 1 to 15 ratio gives me a friggin lot of snow.  

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Just now, ORH_wxman said:

I do know a few mets there....but I'll admit TWC is a bit of a different animal than a local weather forecaster. I could totally see corporate there putting up more extreme graphics.

 

But pretty much every TV met I know has almost total autonomy on their own forecast graphics. Maybe there are some bad stations that force them to put bad graphics out, but I personally don't know any of them.

This is what I figured.

Thank you.

Dude, they need to get a Kev on there...he'd make them billions.

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LavaRock will meh this...................

000
WWUS41 KGYX 182030
WSWGYX

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Gray ME
330 PM EST Fri Jan 18 2019

...SIGNIFICANT WINTER STORM EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND...

A significant storm will move northeast on Saturday night,
spreading snow across the region. By Sunday, this system will
track along the southern New England coastline and through the
Gulf of Maine. This will result in heavy snow across the region
with widespread areas with double digit snowfall. Along the
coastline, a brief period of sleet may fall during the day Sunday.
Needless to say, driving conditions will be treacherous starting
Saturday night and especially Sunday when snowfall rates will
increase.

MEZ012>014-018>022-NHZ003>013-015-190430-
/O.UPG.KGYX.WS.A.0002.190120T0000Z-190121T0000Z/
/O.NEW.KGYX.WS.W.0002.190120T0000Z-190121T0600Z/
Southern Oxford-Southern Franklin-Southern Somerset-Interior York-
Interior Cumberland-Androscoggin-Kennebec-Interior Waldo-
Northern Grafton-Northern Carroll-Southern Grafton-
Southern Carroll-Sullivan-Merrimack-Belknap-Strafford-Cheshire-
Eastern Hillsborough-Interior Rockingham-
Western And Central Hillsborough-
Including the cities of Bethel, Bryant Pond, Hanover,
Locke Mills, Milton, Newry, Rumford, Norway, Fryeburg, Oxford,
Farmington, New Sharon, New Vineyard, Temple, Wilton,
Chesterville, Jay, Athens, Cornville, Skowhegan, Palmyra,
Pittsfield, Embden, Madison, Hollis, Alfred, Lebanon, Sanford,
Goodwins Mills, Buxton, Limington, Berwick, New Gloucester, Gray,
North Windham, Gorham, Bridgton, Greene, Lewiston, Sabattus,
Wales, Minot, Turner, Auburn, Livermore Falls, Augusta, Sidney,
Windsor, Vassalboro, Waterville, China, Palermo, Brooks, Jackson,
Knox, Liberty, Montville, Morrill, Waldo, Winterport, Unity,
Bethlehem, Lincoln, Littleton, Sugar Hill, Thornton,
Waterville Valley, Woodstock, North Conway, Albany, Conway,
Chatham, Crawford Notch, Lyme, Ashland, Ellsworth, Holderness,
Plymouth, Rumney, Wakefield, Bridgewater, Brookfield, Ossipee,
Tuftonboro, Wolfeboro, Moultonborough, Claremont, Cornish,
Croydon, Goshen, Grantham, Lempster, Newport, Charlestown,
Boscawen, Canterbury, Concord, Dunbarton, Loudon, Hooksett,
Laconia, Gilford, Meredith, Barrington, Rochester, Dover,
Rollinsford, Somersworth, Durham, Madbury, Gilsum, Keene, Marlow,
Sullivan, Surry, Jaffrey, Manchester, Pelham, Nashua, Salem,
Atkinson, Newton, Plaistow, Chester, Derry, Hampstead, Exeter,
Amherst, Milford, Mont Vernon, Goffstown, Peterborough, Sharon,
and Weare
330 PM EST Fri Jan 18 2019

...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 7 PM SATURDAY TO 1 AM EST
MONDAY...

* WHAT...Heavy snow expected. Total snow accumulations of 14 to
18 inches expected.

* WHERE...Portions of central, northern and southern New
Hampshire and south central, southwest and western Maine.

* WHEN...From 7 PM Saturday to 1 AM EST Monday.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Travel could be very difficult to
impossible. Patchy blowing snow could significantly reduce
visibility. The cold wind chills as low as 20 below zero could
cause frostbite on exposed skin in as little as 30 minutes.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Winter Storm Warning for snow means severe winter weather
conditions will make travel very hazardous or impossible. If you
must travel, keep an extra flashlight, food and water in your
vehicle in case of an emergency.
 

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1 minute ago, wxeyeNH said:

I have been thinking the snow amounts have just been too high up here.  NAM is giving me almost 2" again.  Even cutting those down by 1/3 but figuring a 1 to 15 ratio gives me a friggin lot of snow.  

It will still fall in that range, GYX above agrees with it.

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3 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Hopefully that doesn't happen. Do you ensembles plop that on us?

I have not even looked past this one coming up,  lol,  I have people e-mailing, Texting for totals, Messaging from facebook plus did a map early this am after looking at the 00z/06Z data for the sled forum i'm on and been on there too......:)

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