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Winter Begins Jan 20th AWT


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9 minutes ago, wxsniss said:

Our overall gestalt independent of models: this is an impressive High, the arctic air is fresh, and conversely this is not a phased super charged negatively tilted system charging in. I would anticipate a scoot east more than a GFS-esque track over Boston.

I actually thought UK, which has a scoot east, was still decent for SNE.

That's just short of hate speech.  ;)
GYX folks still cringe at what they call the VD massacre of 2015, when their blizz-warned 12-18 (right up thru first flakes) verified at 1-2 for all but the SE part of their CWA.  Meanwhile, DE Maine folks got their 20-25', pushing Machias' pack depth (at 20' asl) to 74".  Despite the inevitable model wiggles, they've been too consistent for me to have much wide-right worry for this one.

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4 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Because the biggest transition zone is in SNE, the wobbles are perceived to be much larger than they actually are....so it creates a lot of hand wringing over the model outputs.

And one that models cannot fully decipher will we are within the final stages prior to an event.

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8 minutes ago, DomNH said:

I wouldn't be shocked if the sleet line tickled MHT. We all have to accept it. 

I've been thinking Concord, but didn't dare say it last night. I 've been out on own with my thinking which for the record has been based solely on how this winter has unfolded (and admittedly near zero meteorological knowledge.)

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1 minute ago, Baroclinic Zone said:

And one that models cannot fully decipher will we are within the final stages prior to an event.

Yep, the models will not be perfect...I've been hedging just a bit on the colder side of guidance because of the synoptics...I'll find out soon enough if that was the correct thinking.

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3 minutes ago, Baroclinic Zone said:

I'm was saying to @TauntonBlizzard2013 and @butterfish55 to shoot for 5-7", some sleet/ice/rain and then possibly some light snows on backside.

Hopefully the WAA thump comes in like a wall.  An hour or 2 in changeover makes a world of difference.

so basically, an 80s style SEMA winter event.   That's fine, we're due

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1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said:

Yep, the models will not be perfect...I've been hedging just a bit on the colder side of guidance because of the synoptics...I'll find out soon enough if that was the correct thinking.

I'd side with your logic.  There are a couple mitigating factors in my mind.  There is the background "winter" that we have been having in SNE that's been warmer then normal and we also don't have any snowpack to speak of in SNE which would have helped facilitate the SLP sliding along that denseer cold.

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