CoastalWx Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 8 minutes ago, Greg said: I have the toaster and warm bath ready. You are looking fine. What’s the worry? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 57 minutes ago, moneypitmike said: It looks like a bird as well as a banana. As long as it brings snow. Should use a weenie. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 Just now, CoastalWx said: You are looking fine. What’s the worry? He is terrified of sleet I think....he's getting some sleet so he should just accept it. He will get plenty of snow before that though,. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 Just now, CoastalWx said: You are looking fine. What’s the worry? Greg’s been pounding Red wine all morning Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxsniss Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 Alot of premature negativity in here We haven't given guidance enough time to declare this a clear (or final) trend. Maybe it will be correct, but at the moment I haven't seen anything to drastically change forecasts. Our overall gestalt independent of models: this is an impressive High, the arctic air is fresh, and conversely this is not a phased super charged negatively tilted system charging in. I would anticipate a scoot east more than a GFS-esque track over Boston. I actually thought UK, which has a scoot east, was still decent for SNE. Regarding what has caused the NW track shift on the 12z suite so far...? Unclear. I've looked at 0 hr (12z) on GFS/NAM and compared to same timepoint of previous runs, suspecting that the ingest of the shortwave in the West might have shifted... but really not anything too glaring. Maybe the shortwave has ticked further north tracking over Nevada / Colorado. Maybe enough for the downstream ticks. But all within noise, and absolutely can trend in either way in the next 36 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tiger_deF Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 Where did the term "weenie" come from? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEastermass128 Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 4 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: 12/16/07 was a little different but it was the same idea with a stout arctic high. That one was actually just north of maine and slowly moving NE....this one is actually anchored better. The '07 storm though had the precip coming a bit more form the SSW and this one is more from the WSW. The forcing comes in at a bit of a different angle....the coastal front in this one will be pinned further SE due to the high position. Great response and explanation. Thanks! Seems like most should do well despite ticks NW here and there on current guidance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJOatleast7 Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 28 minutes ago, Hailstoned said: AND it's a super moon; AND it's a full eclipse. Lot's of twists and turns ahead, and likelihood for memorable mayhem. GFS low cloud tool has clouds thinning during the evening (when noticeable effects start just after 10 pm) and even out of here near totality. At least there's hope for that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tamarack Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 27 minutes ago, Hailstoned said: AND it's a super moon; AND it's a full eclipse. Lot's of twists and turns ahead, and likelihood for memorable mayhem. Last full lunar here was spiked by cloud. Unfortunately, I'd give it a 90%+ chance of happening again (though I'd take the extra snow.) I agree on the discrepancy issue. GYX over predicts snow for southern NH especially in the area along the Merrimack Valley area in NE Mass. Wait until tomorrow. If the past is a predictor, the PM shift will probably knock totals back a few inches. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
correnjim1 Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 15 minutes ago, 8611Blizz said: Burbank leaning warmer. now its officially over Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 5 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: You are looking fine. What’s the worry? He has no idea what he is looking at so he is concerned. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 2 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: He is terrified of sleet I think....he's getting some sleet so he should just accept it. He will get plenty of snow before that though,. Especially where he lives. Look at it from my perspective. This is going be be a classic 80s shitshow here with everything except the kitchen sink thrown in. Won't see me complaining about where the rain/sleet/snow line sets up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 55 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: He made one of the more uneducated posts I have seen in a while and thats saying something , dismissal of 1040 high lol geezus Pedestrian 53 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: Predict a 50/50 chance the Euro comes in perfect for snow ... how's that for clearing things up... And if goes the wrong way, I'll go 75% head for the ledge. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 1 hour ago, sbos_wx said: This is not how this works I’m honestly surprised someone hasn’t encouraged him to post less, like days ago Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sn0waddict Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 16 minutes ago, Greg said: I have the toaster and warm bath ready. Want to trade places? I will gladly take your snow followed by a little sleet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 18, 2019 Author Share Posted January 18, 2019 1 minute ago, sbos_wx said: He has no idea what he is looking at so he is concerned. He posts impulsive dribble anytime a model run that he perceives as being unsavory comes out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DomNH Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 I wouldn't be shocked if the sleet line tickled MHT. We all have to accept it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 The board should just stop posting for the next 30 minutes or so. Wait till ECMWF is out to 84 hours then open it back up for posting. The head fakes should be great with people losing their sh*t with every 15 mile shift in the southern plains and Ohio Valley. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
#NoPoles Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 20 minutes ago, NorEastermass128 said: The fact that you're 38/35 right now doesn't mean much when it starts TOMORROW night. You barely sniff 30F tomorrow for the high. I live 7mi from the Canal. The geography of this general area doesnt support sleet or freezing rain. The track of this system will only support a short period of snow. I dont see any guidance suggesting this system has a chance of staying east of the canal. It is a broad area of LP, almost an open wave, and positive tilt trough. There wont be a tight defined center. This system will like pass directly over me. I will experience a temp spike. I will prob be in the 40s and Scott will be sitting at heavy snow at 31 degrees. Past swfe have cause temp spike to 50-54 for my geographical area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 18, 2019 Author Share Posted January 18, 2019 This looks the same as it has for several days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 It doesn't look that different through 30 hours...it is maybe a hair south of 06z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 Just now, powderfreak said: The board should just stop posting for the next 30 minutes or so. Wait till ECMWF is out to 84 hours then open it back up for posting. The head fakes should be great with people losing their sh*t with every 15 mile shift in the southern plains and Ohio Valley. There are some that should not try to do analysis because it become very confusing for some. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoth Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 8 minutes ago, tiger_deF said: Where did the term "weenie" come from? Ginxy's scrolls. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said: This looks the same as it has for several days. Agreed 100%. Expect colder low levels than modeled and it's been the same forecast for 5 days. But those 20 mile wobbles matter...but leave that for the HRRR time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 Euro so far look pretty similar to 6Z, maybe slightly south.. or noise.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 2 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: He posts impulsive dribble anytime a model run that he perceives as being unsavory comes out. But I'm the douche for calling him out the other day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 18, 2019 Author Share Posted January 18, 2019 Just now, dryslot said: There are some that should not try to do analysis because it become very confusing for some. There are some who should just a tape the name tag "greg" to their forehead. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 Not expecting the Euro to make any big swing anyways, Its not its make up, But a tic or two either way, Yes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 Just now, powderfreak said: Agreed 100%. Expect colder low levels than modeled and it's been the same forecast for 5 days. But those 20 mile wobbles matter...but leave that for the HRRR time. Because the biggest transition zone is in SNE, the wobbles are perceived to be much larger than they actually are....so it creates a lot of hand wringing over the model outputs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 almost identical at 39 to 6Z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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