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Winter Begins Jan 20th AWT


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13 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

Man the size and scale of the snow removal program going on between my house and the ski resort is impressive.  VTRANS is straight pushing the snowbanks into the woods and trucking it out from intersections.  

They are obviously preparing for RGEM/ECM and not the NAM.  Or with huge holiday weekend for ski towns they aren't f*cking around.  

NHDOT doing this yesterday along 1-93 around Cannon and Route 302.

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Just now, ORH_wxman said:

James has a better chance of getting 2 feet of snow from this storm.

The maps on TT are limited, but the 12z ICON ptype algorithm is showing rain to the pike at 12z Sunday with surface temps below 20F down almost to the coast. Obviously it shows snow or "not snow" but it's clear that there is going to be a decent delta between the surface and the mid-levels, and probably a lot of people will see some of everything.

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14 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

12z RGEM doubling down....going even more amped than the 06z run. Has the sfc low NW of NYC at 12z Sunday.

Tossed.

It may just be a pattern that the RGEM can't handle... 

or, the opposite - hell hath no fury like that being the case... 

Anyway, every model seems to have its peccadillo where it seems to need to be almost right on top of the event initialization to actually see it...  I'll tell you, having that position is really tantamount to flying in the face of baser BL physical limitation/resistance.  If it pulls it off... what a fascinating study it would be, to be the first time in history -

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Just now, JC-CT said:

The maps on TT are limited, but the 12z ICON ptype algorithm is showing rain to the pike at 12z Sunday with surface temps below 20F down almost to the coast. Obviously it shows snow or "not snow" but it's clear that there is going to be a decent delta between the surface and the mid-levels, and probably a lot of people will see some of everything.

https://weather.us/model-charts/german/massachusetts/temperature-850hpa/20190120-1200z.html

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Just now, JC-CT said:

The maps on TT are limited, but the 12z ICON ptype algorithm is showing rain to the pike at 12z Sunday with surface temps below 20F down almost to the coast. Obviously it shows snow or "not snow" but it's clear that there is going to be a decent delta between the surface and the mid-levels, and probably a lot of people will see some of everything.

They will be reaching into there mixed bag for there alcohol.

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4 minutes ago, JC-CT said:

The maps on TT are limited, but the 12z ICON ptype algorithm is showing rain to the pike at 12z Sunday with surface temps below 20F down almost to the coast. Obviously it shows snow or "not snow" but it's clear that there is going to be a decent delta between the surface and the mid-levels, and probably a lot of people will see some of everything.

Storm is very tilted in the atmosphere...you have a sfc low prob tracking outside of the Cape while the 700 low is tracking up powederfreak's fanny as an open wave.

I wouldn't be shocked if even the pike region sees brief glaze interrupting the scalping....the question is how long snow and sleet holds on though...esp further south where icing a bigger threat. My gut has been that the snow/sleet will put up a pretty good fight for a while which will chew up a chunk of QPF that would have been needed for really bad icing....but there's still a ways to go, and even if that happens, just south of the snow/sleet battle could have a narrow area of bigger icing where they couldn't hold off the deeper warm layer as well. It should be a very fun nowcast storm regardless....a ton of stuff is happening in it.

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5 minutes ago, JC-CT said:

The maps on TT are limited, but the 12z ICON ptype algorithm is showing rain to the pike at 12z Sunday with surface temps below 20F down almost to the coast. Obviously it shows snow or "not snow" but it's clear that there is going to be a decent delta between the surface and the mid-levels, and probably a lot of people will see some of everything.

Yeah... I mentioned that the use of that ICON illustration has the color-coding limitation the other day ...

One cannot rely upon the illustration alone with 'Tidbits rendering - you gotta use some Meteorological insight for that transiaion region between snow and rain. 

A goodly portion of that QPF mass, south of the snow and N of the warm boundary, is a smear of IP and ZR in this situation. 

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5 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Storm is very tilted in the atmosphere...you have a sfc low prob tracking outside of the Cape while the 700 low is tracking up powederfreak's fanny as an open wave.

I wouldn't be shocked if even the pike region sees brief glaze interrupting the scalping....the question is how long snow and sleet holds on though...esp further south where icing a bigger threat. My gut has been that the snow/sleet will put up a pretty good fight for a while which will chew up a chunk of QPF that would have been needed for really bad icing....but there's still a ways to go, and even if that happens, just south of the snow/sleet battle could have a narrow area of bigger icing where they couldn't hold off the deeper warm layer as well. It should be a very fun nowcast storm regardless....a ton of stuff is happening in it.

Yeah, but with the wind factor though esp on Monday morning, seems like it wouldn't take much of a glaze to cause downed limbs.

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1 hour ago, tamarack said:

Some of that might have been differing attitudes by school admin folks, and less litigation threat.  From when our older child entered kindergarten in 1977, thru 1985 when we moved south, he lost 1.5 days total to weather - in Fort Kent, where we had a 130"/year average snowfall.

Things were different then -- agreed -- but it was definitely not a snowy period down here at all. Lots of storms like this one that brought rain inland with a rain/snow/mix line that for me set up north of Providence and south of the "Foster/Glocester" line where I lived. Which I can tell you, because there were a few times I stayed home (I was about 20 mins north of Providence), when school was locally canceled and conditions were worse in my town, whereas in Providence there was often nothing or not enough to cancel it (and my mom refused to drive in). Happened all the time.

The pattern changed literally during my first year away at college...they had more snow days in the winter of 93-94 than we had in the prior 7 years combined!

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