LibertyBell Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 8 minutes ago, OceanStWx said: You may actually hit for cycle on ptypes. Start as snow, to mix, to rain. Then flip back to a mix and end as snow as the cold tuck undercuts the warmth aloft. This whole winter has been like nostalgia for the 80s, because almost every big event (outside of April 1982 and February 1983) that happened here in the 80s was like this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 4 minutes ago, WthrJunkyME said: This was only an hour ago. They just lowered it again at 5:10! Wish they’d get their act together...... How about we be happy with 12-20"? It was a cosmetic update for all intents are purposes to get rid of widespread 20:1 snowfall during the peak of the QPF. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 36 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: Who knows where . I just meant a lot of sleet and zr for a whole bunch of people. Sleet is also an icestorm Kev as you probably know sleet gets measured as snow (at lower ratios, like 2:1). Frozen precip totals (what we call "snow totals") are actually a measurement of both snow and sleet added together. Freezing rain (glaze) gets measured and put in the books as just rain and only added to the liquid precip totals, not the frozen ones. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tunafish Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 4 minutes ago, WthrJunkyME said: This was only an hour ago. They just lowered it again at 5:10! Wish they’d get their act together...... More important to get the best info out there vs inflate expectations only to crash them back to reality just before (or during) go time. 18 vs 20", not that big of a deal. My expectations are 14/15" anyways. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 Just about equally likely at this point that QPF busts as low as a borderline warning event as it is over 1.5" for SNE. Your Pike north line, that gives you goalposts of safely like 5 to 15" right now. Not a bad spot to be. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WthrJunkyME Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 1 minute ago, OceanStWx said: How about we be happy with 12-20"? It was a cosmetic update for all intents are purposes to get rid of widespread 20:1 snowfall during the peak of the QPF. Well, you know I wouldn’t have huffed and puffed had it gone up more! Just a little grouchy.... I’m good! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 1 minute ago, WthrJunkyME said: Well, you know I wouldn’t have huffed and puffed had it gone up more! Just a little grouchy.... I’m good! Also we were a little too high I think vs BOX to our south. Would prefer to match a little closer at this range and deviate as we get to go time when trends become more apparent. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WthrJunkyME Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 2 minutes ago, tunafish said: More important to get the best info out there vs inflate expectations only to crash them back to reality just before (or during) go time. 18 vs 20", not that big of a deal. My expectations are 14/15" anyways. Been expecting 14” here for quite some time, then they blast it up to 22 and then dropped it a short time later. I was NOT following my own rule of keeping it in a range. Maybe I can blame it on lack of coffee, not the fine folks in Gray. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WthrJunkyME Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 Just now, OceanStWx said: Also we were a little too high I think vs BOX to our south. Would prefer to match a little closer at this range and deviate as we get to go time when trends become more apparent. Just as long as we get MORE than them! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 BOX taking them back up... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 FV3 looks to track the low from near NYC to Steve to the GOM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 15 minutes ago, weathafella said: BOX taking them back up... Collaborating with GYX. Here's Albany. Just a little expansion into BOX land would make me happy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 Too bad this is trucking along so fast. A fast wham-bam thank you, ma'am. My p/c gives me 9-13 Saturday night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 Oddly, that's not the Albany map......their revised one which isn't posting, has a uniform 19-20 from PSF to Bennington to Brattleboro all the way to the BOX CWA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lava Rock Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 Also we were a little too high I think vs BOX to our south. Would prefer to match a little closer at this range and deviate as we get to go time when trends become more apparent.Todd Gutner going 18-24"Sent from my Pixel 2 using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 24 minutes ago, weathafella said: BOX taking them back up... 16” in ASH , prolly not 10-12 sounds fine Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 4 minutes ago, Lava Rock said: Todd Gutner going 18-24" Sent from my Pixel 2 using Tapatalk Have some cool temps with your snow up in Maine. 18Z on Sunday. I'll take the under on my p/c -5* on Monday night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 If the 12z runs come in colder like the 6z runs, I would say confidence would be high enough for a Winter Storm Warning on the Cape, 6" or more. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 Just now, moneypitmike said: Have so cool temps with your snow up in Maine. 18Z on Sunday. I'll take the under on my p/c -5* on Monday night. I would go colder for the Cape too, there is no way with that much cold air present, we don't plummet too. I doubt we get out of the mid to upper 30s on Sunday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 5 minutes ago, Lava Rock said: Todd Gutner going 18-24" Sent from my Pixel 2 using Tapatalk 24" is on the table, but I wouldn't be banking it at this point. I'm fine with that being the upper end of the range though. I'm more comfortable with the 12-18" range at the moment. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 Anyone got the 6z Euro? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowgeek Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 I always thought that the NAM is usually the model that sniffs out the mid level warmth that often results in pingers making it farther north. And now it keeps trending south as several of the other models bring the warmth further north. I know it’s usually good at recognizing low level cold being a meso and all. Interesting last hour model battle. . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 7 minutes ago, ineedsnow said: Anyone got the 6z Euro? Out the 33. Should have a good idea shortly Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Go Kart Mozart Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 This morning's little flurry storm seems much stronger as it departs, around 26 hrs. Edit, was looking at wrong map Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BRSno Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 55 minutes ago, weathafella said: BOX taking them back up... Def not expecting 9" here, will be happy with 6". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 Euro nearly identical . If anything a few miles south with h85 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 Euro may be a tick colder, but almost noise. Maybe a hair slower too? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 1 minute ago, weathafella said: Euro nearly identical . If anything a few miles south with h85 how's it looking qpf-wise? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 Just now, moneypitmike said: how's it looking pf-wise? Same or similar Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 1 minute ago, weathafella said: Euro nearly identical . If anything a few miles south with h85 HIRES NAM shows throughout the storm a northeasterly surface wind over the Cape, means freezing rain and sleet is a great possibility over rain falling, I think we see 6"+ total from the storm, I think its a mistake for the NWS not to bring us into a winter storm warning Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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