Bostonseminole Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 1 minute ago, qg_omega said: What a shift south, hundreds of miles captain obvious? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Greg Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 Need to see all models tonight to see if this is the begining of a trend or just one model hiccup outside its range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 ICON is also a lot colder. Has BOS in the single numbers mid morning Sunday before it stops. Drops from 28 at 6am to 8 at 8am. Oh yes..and all snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 Just now, weathafella said: ICON is also a lot colder. Has BOS in the single numbers mid morning Sunday before it stops. Drops from 28 at 6am to 8 at 8am. Oh yes..and all snow. yeah, keeps is pretty cold, but has been steady showing snow in the area since 5 days ago lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 18, 2019 Author Share Posted January 18, 2019 1 hour ago, Damage In Tolland said: The next 24-36 hours separates the men from the boys . You have the model huggers who think each run is the final outcome.. and then you have the few who understand what can and can’t happen based on this setup . And they end up the victors when the others come back as models come back Have yet to see reason to stray from yesterday's first call. ..8-14". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoth Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 Has there been any discernible trend with the present system once it gets up in the maritimes? If it gets wound up it might conceivably have some bearing on our Sunday system. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DomNH Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 7 minutes ago, dendrite said: Would be close up here if the NAM verified. That H7 fronto lines up right through C NH. Yeah that's a nice look for you on the NAM. I wouldn't forecast better than 10:1 in SNE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ariof Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 On 1/16/2019 at 5:27 PM, BombsAway1288 said: I had to work that storm last March. All flights in and out were canceled until about 8PM when a few international flights went out. We closed the checkpoint basically all day and only reopened it at about 6PM because of those flights. Passenger and people were still out in the public areas all day but because all the checkpoints were closed, the airport was considered closed. It rarely happens though and if it does happen, it's only for a short time like I just explained. Only in 2015 did the airport completely close a couple of times to the point where they told us we could stay home and still get paid. When that happens the airport is really closed lol. It's very interesting how MassPort manages this vs PANYNJ for very big storms. In JFK/EWR/LGA they seem to just let flights keep landing when possible, which gums up the whole airport and snow clearing infrastructure and causes massive delays for pax who do get in and out, missed connections, etc, and then it call cascades for days. Maybe they operate at 40% the day of the storm, but then they're at 60% the next day, and 80% the three days after. Which doesn't make sense. MassPort cancels everything and gets all the plans out of the airport. I remember watching the March storm last year (and January, too, IIRC). Airlines manage it differently. IIRC, DL flew their evening schedule and then deadheaded all the planes out late (maybe even took some pax, but they were non-standard, high-four-digit-numbered flights). UA just canceled everything in after about 6. Not sure what AA/B6/whoever else did. But in any case, it means that the ramps are entirely clear and it's probably a lot easier to clear the airfield when it is devoid of anything moving than when you have to plow snow around active stands, ramps, taxiways and runways. Will be interesting to see what they do Sunday, as with the latest models Sunday AM will be pretty snowy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 8 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Have yet to see reason to stray from yesterday's first call. ..8-14". For the area you had that in it makes sense. If you split it roughly West/east into two halves, the southern part would fit 8-11”, the northern 11-14” nicely...that’s possibly how I might change it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 Has anyone even mentioned the FV3 frankenmodel? Should anyone mention it? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 RGEM also south real nice trends so far Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 18, 2019 Author Share Posted January 18, 2019 1 minute ago, HoarfrostHubb said: For the area you had that in it makes sense. If you split it roughly West/east into two halves, the southern part would fit 8-11”, the northern 11-14” nicely...that’s possibly how I might change it. I will be more specific in the final call..but not bad for day 3.5-4 first guess. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SlantStickers Anonymous Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 1 minute ago, ineedsnow said: RGEM also south real nice trends so far RGEM is getting to be within its good range, too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 Just now, SlantStickers Anonymous said: RGEM is getting to be within its good range, too. Need another 24 hours for that actually. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 In fairness, RGEM had nowhere to go but SE. It was the last remaining holdout trying to show an Albany/interior SNE track. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 Just now, weathafella said: Need another 24 hours for that actually. Yeah I like to look at it inside of 36h. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 6 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: In fairness, RGEM had nowhere to go but SE. It was the last remaining holdout trying to show an Albany/interior SNE track. Will where to you believe the SE goal post is at 48 hours out given the upper air look Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SlantStickers Anonymous Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 1 minute ago, weathafella said: Need another 24 hours for that actually. Sweet god, I thought it was Friday night already Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 Just now, SlantStickers Anonymous said: Sweet god, I thought it was Friday night already I’ve felt like that since yesterday... it feels like we have been tracking this for two weeks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 GFS out to 12 a pretty noticeable changes already Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 3 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said: Will where to you believe the SE goal post is at 48 hours out given the upper air look Prob a track that keeps roughly something like GHG to HFD all snow....that's prob the most realistic SE goalpost. Something a bit colder than NAM. It's plausible with more trending. I wouldn't forecast that obviously. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DomNH Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 5 minutes ago, SlantStickers Anonymous said: Sweet god, I thought it was Friday night already I wish. 6 or 7 years ago I’d consider staying up for the Euro but I can barely keep my eyes open past 10. How weenies evolve. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 Same trend is happening on the GFS through 36h that was happening on the NAM...we're shearing things a bit with northern side outrunning southern a bit. It's not as extreme as the NAM though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 1 minute ago, DomNH said: I wish. 6 or 7 years ago I’d consider staying up for the Euro but I can barely keep my eyes open past 10. How weenies evolve. I could but it’s really not worth it imo the changes will prob be due to fast compressing zonal flow , less phasing and big dog pressing high Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 Just now, DomNH said: I wish. 6 or 7 years ago I’d consider staying up for the Euro but I can barely keep my eyes open past 10. How weenies evolve. You should be able to stay up all night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 Just now, DomNH said: I wish. 6 or 7 years ago I’d consider staying up for the Euro but I can barely keep my eyes open past 10. How weenies evolve. Same here been going to bed at 11 the past couple nights it's hard when I get up at 415 for work Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DomNH Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 1 minute ago, dryslot said: You should be able to stay up all night. If I’m out with friends sure. If I’m posting on a weather board on a Thursday night...not so much. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Syrmax Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 00Z NAM Wow!! FYI, regarding 00Z NAM, recently came across an interesting study that analyzed NAM via Fourier time domain analysis in 156 global data series (essentially discrete events). Where Deutsche ICON and NAM coaligned at h200 within 48 hr instantations, given Z-Scores >0.9 and open channel Froude values <1.0, NAM outperformed power series Z by 0.95, with confidence levels of 0.98!. (Fg) was assumed constant throughout the column in all instances, as was the qAv product. This found NAM thermal and slp placement far superior by 2 SD vs GFS and ECMWF determanistic Kronecker products. Only 0.5 SD probabalistic with Sigma < 2 however the raw score null set was overly constrained so ... Bottom line, setup here is perfect to push all your chips to the centre of the table on NAM. Seems crazy, but true. - SPQR Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 Just now, DomNH said: If I’m out with friends sure. If I’m posting on a weather board on a Thursday night...not so much. Good point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
8611Blizz Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 What's the timing on this as of now in Boston? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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