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Winter Begins Jan 20th AWT


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Just now, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

No ice no ice, that’s all.

I want to if it means zr is my other option. Choosing weather is emotional. 

 

I’m OUT on zr... want no part of that. We’re not getting much snow here so I’m rooting on the fast transition to plain rain. 

My guess is a quick snow quick sleet, to a lot of rain here

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21 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

Not that anyone cares, but I've convinced myself that 0.75-1.0" of QPF is a good place to start for a forecast...and 15:1 ratios would give that 10-15".  

I usually don't like banking on ratios and even though there's talk in these parts of 20:1 or even a bit higher, I believe those will be for the mid-level meso-scale band that could form.  Most of the time I think 12-15:1 look good for NNE. 

What are the winds going to be like?  Could they knock down the ratios?

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Havne't seen big jumps today, mostly little small ticks, but the NAM is making one now. This is a pretty sizable move SE.

 

It's the NAM so we can't trust it...we'll have to wait for the globals to find out if this is the new data or just the NAM being the NAM.

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Big flag for me for going huge is that all the lift is at like 850 mb which is way below the DGZ. Like most SWFEs I wouldn’t be surprised if we ripped needles the whole time. I’m also always weary of the ML warmth punch coming in faster than anticipated. Obviously no one in the interior is sniffing freezing at the surface but I wouldn’t be surprised if we all pinged at some point. Max snow zone in SNE right now looks like Rt 2 north and I wouldn’t go more than 8-15’’ right now. 

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1 minute ago, DomNH said:

Big flag for me for going huge is that all the lift is at like 850 mb which is way below the DGZ. Like most SWFEs I wouldn’t be surprised if we ripped needles the whole time. I’m also always weary of the ML warmth punch coming in faster than anticipated. Obviously no one in the interior is sniffing freezing at the surface but I wouldn’t be surprised if we all pinged at some point. Max snow zone in SNE right now looks like Rt 2 north and I wouldn’t go more than 8-15’’ right now. 

I think that is a great call and if some of us are pounding baking soda for hours then it is more of a 6-12" broadbrush range.

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2 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Havne't seen big jumps today, mostly little small ticks, but the NAM is making one now. This is a pretty sizable move SE.

 

It's the NAM so we can't trust it...we'll have to wait for the globals to find out if this is the new data or just the NAM being the NAM.

But a stronger southern stream will help to pump up heights ahead of storm.  We also have a developing PNA ridge out west.  Just because we have a more southerly trajectory early on In the NAM does not mean it will track further south in the end as it comes east.

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