Typhoon Tip Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 We're now relaying the governing mechanics overland out west as of this 0Z runs 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Greg Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 I liked Todd Gross. He was a nice guy. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kdxken Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 Just now, Damage In Tolland said: As of now. 100% accurate Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 The southern stream is getting sheared to shit so far on the NAM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 1 minute ago, wxeyeNH said: Brian and I sit nicely in that .1 area that runs through Central NH And I in a similar one in GC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 1 minute ago, Typhoon Tip said: We're now relaying the governing mechanics overland out west as of this 0Z runs If there will be changes it will be on guidance moving forward from here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 1 hour ago, weathafella said: Berg’s shook. No ice no ice, that’s all. 1 hour ago, ORH_wxman said: He's not sniffing freezing. I want to if it means zr is my other option. Choosing weather is emotional. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 May not matter much but doesn't really appear to be an amplitude differences much but timing one Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 Just now, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: No ice no ice, that’s all. I want to if it means zr is my other option. Choosing weather is emotional. Yeah I’d take 50 degree rain vs zr any day of the eek. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said: The southern stream is getting sheared to shit so far on the NAM. Yeah not sure it's the stupid crap the NAM can do with pieces of vorticity, but it's sheared. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 Just now, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: No ice no ice, that’s all. I want to if it means zr is my other option. Choosing weather is emotional. I’m OUT on zr... want no part of that. We’re not getting much snow here so I’m rooting on the fast transition to plain rain. My guess is a quick snow quick sleet, to a lot of rain here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mreaves Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 21 minutes ago, powderfreak said: Not that anyone cares, but I've convinced myself that 0.75-1.0" of QPF is a good place to start for a forecast...and 15:1 ratios would give that 10-15". I usually don't like banking on ratios and even though there's talk in these parts of 20:1 or even a bit higher, I believe those will be for the mid-level meso-scale band that could form. Most of the time I think 12-15:1 look good for NNE. What are the winds going to be like? Could they knock down the ratios? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 4 minutes ago, moneypitmike said: And I in a similar one in GC. I'm starting to like the idea of being on the NE Coast for this. You can be my eyes in NW MA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 5 minutes ago, weathafella said: Yeah I’d take 50 degree rain vs zr any day of the eek. 99% of us would. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 NAM is going to much further south based on early returns Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 Havne't seen big jumps today, mostly little small ticks, but the NAM is making one now. This is a pretty sizable move SE. It's the NAM so we can't trust it...we'll have to wait for the globals to find out if this is the new data or just the NAM being the NAM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 Congrats NJ 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DomNH Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 Big flag for me for going huge is that all the lift is at like 850 mb which is way below the DGZ. Like most SWFEs I wouldn’t be surprised if we ripped needles the whole time. I’m also always weary of the ML warmth punch coming in faster than anticipated. Obviously no one in the interior is sniffing freezing at the surface but I wouldn’t be surprised if we all pinged at some point. Max snow zone in SNE right now looks like Rt 2 north and I wouldn’t go more than 8-15’’ right now. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 Just now, dryslot said: Congrats NJ All options have always been on the table. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxsniss Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 Quite a bit southeast through 48... Being as it's the NAM, hard to be confident this is a definite trend pending other 0z suite Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 8 minutes ago, HIPPYVALLEY said: I'm starting to like the idea of being on the NE Coast for this. You can be my eyes in NW MA. Of course. Hopefully with low visibility. I can't make it for the GFS. Hopefully I'll awaken to 2' maps again. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sn0waddict Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 I think I approve of this so far. As long as it doesn’t bring more freezing rain later. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 Just now, HIPPYVALLEY said: All options have always been on the table. So...3 feet ala TWC is still open? Dom’s summary above fits my thinking, but in a much more educated manner Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SlantStickers Anonymous Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 Is this how NYC gets its blizzard? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 1 minute ago, DomNH said: Big flag for me for going huge is that all the lift is at like 850 mb which is way below the DGZ. Like most SWFEs I wouldn’t be surprised if we ripped needles the whole time. I’m also always weary of the ML warmth punch coming in faster than anticipated. Obviously no one in the interior is sniffing freezing at the surface but I wouldn’t be surprised if we all pinged at some point. Max snow zone in SNE right now looks like Rt 2 north and I wouldn’t go more than 8-15’’ right now. I think that is a great call and if some of us are pounding baking soda for hours then it is more of a 6-12" broadbrush range. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Spanks45 Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 1 hour ago, CT Rain said: Rain for Kevin, Ice for Ryan? I would prefer heavy sleet, no ice please.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 2 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: Havne't seen big jumps today, mostly little small ticks, but the NAM is making one now. This is a pretty sizable move SE. It's the NAM so we can't trust it...we'll have to wait for the globals to find out if this is the new data or just the NAM being the NAM. But a stronger southern stream will help to pump up heights ahead of storm. We also have a developing PNA ridge out west. Just because we have a more southerly trajectory early on In the NAM does not mean it will track further south in the end as it comes east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 Pounding at hr 54. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 Just now, SlantStickers Anonymous said: Is this how NYC gets its blizzard? Probably not happening but I would be happy for them if it did. I'm in the anything we get is gravy mode for this. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 What a crushing! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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