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Winter Begins Jan 20th AWT


40/70 Benchmark

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3 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said:

This is the one reason I believe this could go further southeast over the next 36-48. The Euro/UKMET catching onto that supposed NS interaction and the GFS not doing it to a stronger degree than those two deviates from the GFS tendency in that scenario.  If those two models are overdoing that interaction this thing could slide 50-75 miles more SE.  

That's what many of us are banking on.   ;)

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I really like my small 1kw inverter generator.. It's small, quiet, sips gas, and plenty of power for electronics and works to charge up UPS batteries.  I have a larger more traditional generator too, but for most outages I only run the little one.  Something to think about it you are shopping generators.

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24 minutes ago, weathafella said:

You’re so scarred....

 

I never thought i was going to see frozen. I live 1mile from the ocean, 7mi from the Canal. The track needs to be way offshore for me to get demolished. I bet I hit 40 or 50 degrees for a bit during the storm. My gut says this doesnt track as far south as everyone wants. I think this falls more in line with the other storms we have had this winter. CNE to NNE get the snow.

We will see how this plays out. I dont know if I will be right, it is my psuedo forecast

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36 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Did Tip melt about QPF?

I’m going to. 2.4 to 1.1 is not gonna really do it for me 

figured I would see a solid 1.5 + w that gulf connection and 16 hrs of precip

with these ratios and some sleet 1.2 QPF would be about 6-8 and a moderate amount of sleet in ASH , I’ll take it but was wanting a little more 

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2 hours ago, Typhoon Tip said:

I'm actually buckin' for a NAM like solution myself...

I don't really care for either losing power, missing the Patriots party I'm going to... or, 20" of snow ... none of that really matters to me.

Far as I'm concerned, lets lop another 1/3 of QPF and make this an official pedestrian open wave quick hitter...  

 

38 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Did Tip melt about QPF?

 

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2 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said:

I’m going to. 2.4 to 1.1 is not gonna really do it for me 

figured I would see a solid 1.5 + w that gulf connection and 16 hrs of precip

with these ratios and some sleet 1.2 QPF would be about 6-8 and a moderate amount of sleet in ASH , I’ll take it but was wanting a little more 

I'm always skeptical of amounts over 2 for the Merrimack Valley. 

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1 minute ago, CoastalWx said:

Jesus many should be delighted we are getting a fun event. Even Diane will get some snow. Pull the CO3 cartridge away from your mouth.

Pickles usually isn't happy unless it's 3 feet of pack like the base of Stowe mountain or we are getting 20"+. 

10" or 12" is pretty meh. 

For the rest of us, we'll all just be delighted to get a plowable even and put a meaty pack on the landscape. 

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6 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Jesus many should be delighted we are getting a fun event. Even Diane will get some snow. Pull the CO3 cartridge away from your mouth.

Im excited to see how this unfolds. I was invited to one of those tuppware party type g2g, except it is for Swarovski Crystal jewelry on Saturday am, in upton, ma. God, i have no interest but it is my best friend, so gotta take one for the team. Crossing my fingers there will be good snacks??? But ill probably put a secret stash in my car just in case...and then i can get home before the precip starts.

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4 minutes ago, #NoPoles said:

Im excited to see how this unfolds. I was invited to one of those tuppware party type g2g, except it is for Swarovski Crystal jewelry on Saturday am, in upton, ma. God, i have no interest but it is my best friend, so gotta take one for the team. Crossing my fingers there will be good snacks??? But ill probably put a secret stash in my car just in case...and then i can get home before the precip starts.

Bail out early and stop by the GTG...ORH isn't that far from upton. 

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1 hour ago, SnowGoose69 said:

It’s very bad on any type of SWFE.  We’ve seen that for years.  The NAM used to always have south bias problems with them too beyond 48.  That doesn’t seem to be an issue with it anymore.  A decade ago the only decent model on SWFEs beyond 48-60 was the Euro.  The NAM is respectable now at that range 

It isn't winning any awards with coastal storms either....2/13 among many others

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