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Winter Begins Jan 20th AWT


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Just now, #NoPoles said:

So this storm is currently basically at the west coast thursday night, and affecting the east coast saturday night. This thing is flying. I cant fathom how this is supposed to drop big snow totals. I mean, maybe where the mid level fronto genesis occurs...but im having a hard time believing that heavy amounts of precip will occur over a decently large geographical area

It won’t outside of banding.  That’s one of DT and Larry Cosgrove’s rules.  Fast moving storms you always see the QPF “mysteriously” drop as you get inside 48 hours.  I think 15 or more will be mostly higher terrain and in banding for sure 

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Just now, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

I thought it would be much further se as it hit the EC based on h5, but it jams the sfc north when I finally looked at the pretty precip fields.

GFS will keep correcting SE with sfc as we get closer. That's almost a no brainer. 

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3 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

I thought it would be much further se as it hit the EC based on h5, but it jams the sfc north when I finally looked at the pretty precip fields.

It kind of pump the brakes on the east progression, But you had it trying to phase too so that started to tug it more north the NE at the end, That is what i have seen happening today, Is s/w is weaker down south so its getting further east before its starting to be influenced by the northern stream and then a late phase at this lat up here and NE Maine and the Maritimes get clocked, Earlier runs had it stronger down south tracking further north then getting some interaction with the northern stream a tic or two sooner and keeping the track over SE MA/Cape into the GOM.

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Just now, weathafella said:

What an awful model!

It’s very bad on any type of SWFE.  We’ve seen that for years.  The NAM used to always have south bias problems with them too beyond 48.  That doesn’t seem to be an issue with it anymore.  A decade ago the only decent model on SWFEs beyond 48-60 was the Euro.  The NAM is respectable now at that range 

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1 minute ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

That’s a problem, I’ll alert my subscribers to go rent gennies.

I should also have added that further east near GON will get above freezing but I assumed you weren't talking about them. 

I think there is still a lot of uncertainty around the icing there. As QPF has diminished, the icing danger isn't quite as bad. Could be more like 0.35-0.50 type ice which would cause some problems but not nearly as catastrophic as, say, 0.75-1.00 accretion. This could still end up as a sleet bomb too...watch for deeper cold layer. 

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4 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

That’s a problem, I’ll alert my subscribers to go rent gennies.

Dont underestimate the rush on generators.  In 2008 when my area got pretty much destroyed by an ice storm, I had to drive from the NH border almost to CT to find a generator in stock.  I'm honestly surprised so many live long term in the NE without a generator.  Unless its a tiny affected area theres no ROI on stores stocking enough generators to actually meet demand in an actual event...most stock for their usual yearly purchase volume.  

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Just now, CoastalWx said:

Just saying..lol. I don't care about QPF, just like the subtle SE tick and helping to keep it below 32. Hoping for a few days of snow OTG before it melts next week. 

I just don't trust it, That what i'm getting at, Its had a lackluster performance, Hopefully it remains cold for your areas as your on the fence down there.

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1 minute ago, dryslot said:

I just don't trust it, That what i'm getting at, Its had a lackluster performance, Hopefully it remains cold for your areas as your on the fence down there.

I don’t trust it either lol. You should do well there . That’s an arctic over

 your fanny. 

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Because people know weather is a passion Im getting emails, text, fb messages all asking me about this huge storm.  People are hearing feet of snow and so much over hype up here.  A friend just texted me they heard 3 feet for Nashua.

GFS keeps trimming qpf  about .8 now.   This seems like it will be a fairly normal winter storm for us.  8-14" of powder easy to remove snow.  

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15 minutes ago, dryslot said:

It kind of pump the brakes on the east progression, But you had it trying to phase too so that started to tug it more north the NE at the end, That is what i have seen happening today, Is s/w is weaker down south so its getting further east before its starting to be influenced by the northern stream and then a late phase at this lat up here and NE Maine and the Maritimes get clocked, Earlier runs had it stronger down south tracking further north then getting some interaction with the northern stream a tic or two sooner and keeping the track over SE MA/Cape into the GOM.

This is the one reason I believe this could go further southeast over the next 36-48. The Euro/UKMET catching onto that supposed NS interaction and the GFS not doing it to a stronger degree than those two deviates from the GFS tendency in that scenario.  If those two models are overdoing that interaction this thing could slide 50-75 miles more SE.  

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