dryslot Posted January 16, 2019 Share Posted January 16, 2019 1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said: GGEM is almost identical to 00z...just a bit faster. But def not as amped at GFS. Funny how the models have traded places from a couple days ago. Could even argue a tic or so SE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 16, 2019 Share Posted January 16, 2019 Just now, dryslot said: Could even argue a tic or so SE. Yeah maybe a hair SE...but for all intents and purposes, it was basically the same. Anything under a 25 mile shift is mostly model noise at this point...you could prob even argue 50 miles is model noise right now considering we're still 3.5-4 days out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Greg Posted January 16, 2019 Share Posted January 16, 2019 8 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: Even you and dendrite are getting sand blasted on that run. Sfc temps tossed as far as you can throw them though for SNE. Will, the GFS used to be decent within these ranges, what happened? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 16, 2019 Share Posted January 16, 2019 2 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: Yeah maybe a hair SE...but for all intents and purposes, it was basically the same. Anything under a 25 mile shift is mostly model noise at this point...you could prob even argue 50 miles is model noise right now considering we're still 3.5-4 days out. Exactly, These 25-50 mi tics have larger implications in SNE then up here at this point, Really it would be mainly snow if its more SE or snow/sleet if its NW up here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 16, 2019 Share Posted January 16, 2019 Just now, Greg said: Will, the GFS used to be decent within these ranges, what happened? I dunno if I would agree with that...GFS has aways had its issues...and especially with what I'm mentioning about the sfc temps. It just doesn't know how to handle CAD very well. We have an arctic banana high to our N&NW with a low center tracking over LI and SE MA (even on that more amped run, that's where it tracks)....yet, it is trying to rip 50F to ORH. It's so bad. The flow is just way too geostrophic in the low levels. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted January 16, 2019 Share Posted January 16, 2019 Just now, ORH_wxman said: I dunno if I would agree with that...GFS has aways had its issues...and especially with what I'm mentioning about the sfc temps. It just doesn't know how to handle CAD very well. We have an arctic banana high to our N&NW with a low center tracking over LI and SE MA (even on that more amped run, that's where it tracks)....yet, it is trying to rip 50F to ORH. It's so bad. The flow is just way too geostrophic in the low levels. I've also noticed it tends to be too diffuse with the low center. For example it has a pretty broad swath of SE winds over CT as the low is close to the Sound. In reality the higher res models will show one hell of a front right along I-95 and everyone to the north will be ripping northerlies. They're all sort of tied in I guess - another reason why the GFS struggles with the low level thermals. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 16, 2019 Share Posted January 16, 2019 Yeah wait for the Brits. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted January 16, 2019 Share Posted January 16, 2019 GFS just did a solid double up on the QPF from this morning's run. That looks a lot like March 5-6, 2011 but this time it wouldn't be 50F in ORH. I just don't understand the QPF amounts. I can't see how they are producing so much. Even ICON was way south and like 1.25" QPF. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 16, 2019 Share Posted January 16, 2019 Just now, CT Rain said: I've also noticed it tends to be too diffuse with the low center. For example it has a pretty broad swath of SE winds over CT as the low is close to the Sound. In reality the higher res models will show one hell of a front right along I-95 and everyone to the north will be ripping northerlies. They're all sort of tied in I guess - another reason why the GFS struggles with the low level thermals. Right...it has these big diffuse rounded isobars around the low when in reality, you know those isobars are going to be very jagged looking with a huge CAD sig over the interior and bagginess extending to the east over toward the LI-Cape Cod corridor...ad those big diffuse isbars totally screw with the wind direction which causes the temps to be way off. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted January 16, 2019 Share Posted January 16, 2019 Just now, ORH_wxman said: Right...it has these big diffuse rounded isobars around the low when in reality, you know those isobars are going to be very jagged looking with a huge CAD sig over the interior and bagginess extending to the east over toward the LI-Cape Cod corridor...ad those big diffuse isbars totally screw with the wind direction which causes the temps to be way off. That makes a lot of sense, thanks to you and Ryan for the explanation on that stuff. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted January 16, 2019 Share Posted January 16, 2019 2 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: Right...it has these big diffuse rounded isobars around the low when in reality, you know those isobars are going to be very jagged looking with a huge CAD sig over the interior and bagginess extending to the east over toward the LI-Cape Cod corridor...ad those big diffuse isbars totally screw with the wind direction which causes the temps to be way off. Also, with the upper level forcing the way it is... the GFS wants to tuck that low ashore near HVN. Guarantee you the better models (with higher resolution) would stick it over Long Island. Doesn't seem like a big deal but shove that coastal front 20 or 25 miles south and it's a big sensible wx difference over SNE. If the best UL is over Albany or Syracuse then it doesn't matter... but in this case it does. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tiktock Posted January 16, 2019 Share Posted January 16, 2019 27 minutes ago, WthrJunkyME said: Throw a shop light under the engine cover. Incandescent of course! Yeah I plan to do that or to just run an extension cord out and blast a space heater at the engine block for a little while.....assuming I can't get it going. Its a 2018 brand new Kubota and I winterized the fuel and it has glow plugs so theres a decent chance it'll start up right away but I dont like the idea of my first sub-zero start attempt to be with a huge volume or snow and ice on the ground, haha Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JBinStoughton Posted January 16, 2019 Share Posted January 16, 2019 What is the thinking at this point as to where a surface 0C line is going to end up? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 16, 2019 Share Posted January 16, 2019 Just now, Tiktock said: Yeah I plan to do that or to just run an extension cord out and blast a space heater at the engine block for a little while.....assuming I can't get it going. Its a 2018 brand new Kubota and I winterized the fuel and it has glow plugs so theres a decent chance it'll start up right away but I dont like the idea of my first sub-zero start attempt to be with a huge volume or snow and ice on the ground, haha You should be good if it has glow plugs, Of course a little ether never hurts............... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 16, 2019 Share Posted January 16, 2019 6 minutes ago, JBinStoughton said: What is the thinking at this point as to where a surface 0C line is going to end up? Right over downtown Stoughton Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JBinStoughton Posted January 16, 2019 Share Posted January 16, 2019 1 minute ago, Damage In Tolland said: Right over downtown Stoughton That’s obvious. But where else lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Greg Posted January 16, 2019 Share Posted January 16, 2019 We generally want this cnter to go about a good 35-40 miles south of Long Island and the Cape to be in goood shape. Still time for that to happpen but still concerned. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 16, 2019 Share Posted January 16, 2019 4 minutes ago, Greg said: We generally want this cnter to go about a good 35-40 miles south of Long Island and the Cape to be in goood shape. Still time for that to happpen but still concerned. Are you talking just for snow?....this low could go over SE MA and you would't sniff freezing in this setup....but you might be ice and not snow at that point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JBinStoughton Posted January 16, 2019 Share Posted January 16, 2019 Just now, ORH_wxman said: Are you talking just for snow?....this low could go over SE MA and you would't sniff freezing in this setup....but you might be ice and not snow at that point. I’m talking rain vs freezing rain. That’s the biggest difference in my mind. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
J Paul Gordon Posted January 16, 2019 Share Posted January 16, 2019 Looks like a mess here. Snow to sleet/frzr to rain and maybe back to something wintery before it all turns into a solid block. Unless, of course, we do get a punch of warm air and it is mostly rain. Given up on any all/mostly snow solution here. But nothing to say the ground isn't white with something on Monday morning Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Greg Posted January 16, 2019 Share Posted January 16, 2019 1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said: Are you talking just for snow?....this low could go over SE MA and you would't sniff freezing in this setup....but you might be ice and not snow at that point. For a mostly snow, yes. But boy I will take sleet over freezing rain (Ice) any day. Thank you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 16, 2019 Share Posted January 16, 2019 Ukie with a coastal low lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 16, 2019 Share Posted January 16, 2019 1 minute ago, CoastalWx said: Ukie with a coastal low lol. WTF is that? It goes from like SW VA to the benchmark...even a bit east of the BM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 16, 2019 Share Posted January 16, 2019 2 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Ukie with a coastal low lol. Yeah, Back out to the east again, Waiting for the huggers to come in to verify this is where its going.............lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted January 16, 2019 Share Posted January 16, 2019 Sign me up for that Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 16, 2019 Share Posted January 16, 2019 CMC went slightly se, if uncle is sober that’s a nice look. I’m tossing the stupid gfs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 16, 2019 Share Posted January 16, 2019 Uncle also moves it slowly it seems considering that’s 24 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted January 16, 2019 Share Posted January 16, 2019 3 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: WTF is that? It goes from like SW VA to the benchmark...even a bit east of the BM Drunk? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 16, 2019 Share Posted January 16, 2019 Just now, weathafella said: CMC went slightly se, if uncle is sober that’s a nice look. I’m tossing the stupid gfs. Can't take the Ukie solution too seriously right now. I mean, that's way east of other guidance. For now, I'm assuming he had a few bloody marys for breakfast to shake off last night's bender. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted January 16, 2019 Share Posted January 16, 2019 Just now, ORH_wxman said: Can't take the Ukie solution too seriously right now. I mean, that's way east of other guidance. For now, I'm assuming he had a few bloody marys for breakfast to shake off last night's bender. Brexit stage right off the coast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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