CT Rain Posted January 16, 2019 Share Posted January 16, 2019 Just now, ORH_wxman said: If the cold layer is pretty deep (800-1000m or more) and at least -8C or so...then you can start refreezing them pretty easily...esp since you start to get poorly formed ice crystals in the cold layer for the drops to freeze onto when you are colder than -8C. But that will be much tougher if the drops are warm...so the warmer/deeper the elevated warm layer, the better for preventing that. Though admittedly, those conditions become hard to achieve the further you swing into one extreme,....usually a 4-5C warm layer will have a shallower layer of colder underneath it that has a hard time reaching -8C or being deeper than 800m. Yeah you need some really funky soundings for that kid of stuff. And for sure if you re-introduce ice in the cloud near the ground then all bets are off. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 16, 2019 Share Posted January 16, 2019 Just now, dryslot said: Appears to me yo be a little more amped down south. Yeah just a tad. The PV north trying to press too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 16, 2019 Share Posted January 16, 2019 Just now, dryslot said: Appears to me to be a little more amped down south. More amped south, colder/lower heights out ahead in New England. Prob close to a wash when it gets here is my guess. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 16, 2019 Share Posted January 16, 2019 Just now, CoastalWx said: Yeah just a tad. The PV north trying to press too. Thank you for your lackluster defecatory hygiene. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 16, 2019 Share Posted January 16, 2019 Just now, CoastalWx said: Yeah just a tad. The PV north trying to press too. It actually may end up a tic north or so, But we will see with it fighting the press. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 16, 2019 Share Posted January 16, 2019 It's a little faster than 06z too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 16, 2019 Share Posted January 16, 2019 1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said: More amped south, colder/lower heights out ahead in New England. Prob close to a wash when it gets here is my guess. That would be a good assumption as long as it doesn't try to phase some of that lobe. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted January 16, 2019 Share Posted January 16, 2019 GFS looks like it will be an icy mess here in CT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 16, 2019 Share Posted January 16, 2019 ZR! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 16, 2019 Share Posted January 16, 2019 Def a bit west and stronger....GFS is prob gonna try and drive the low over SNE, which is wrong, but that's how that model works. It already has above freezing sfc out to NW MA at 96 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 16, 2019 Share Posted January 16, 2019 eek, That's not what some are going to want to see, 988mb of SE MA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Greg Posted January 16, 2019 Share Posted January 16, 2019 Yeah, it is a tick north at 96 hours and amped is why your getting the mix and rain. Incredible even with two highs in place. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 16, 2019 Share Posted January 16, 2019 Defintely more amped. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Spanks45 Posted January 16, 2019 Share Posted January 16, 2019 Just now, ORH_wxman said: Def a bit west and stronger....GFS is prob gonna try and drive the low over SNE, which is wrong, but that's how that model works. It already has above freezing sfc out to NW MA at 96 hours. Just like it tried driving it into upstate NY yesterday, only to back down over the next few cycles... Ebb and flow with this model with regards to the Low movement Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted January 16, 2019 Share Posted January 16, 2019 1 hour ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Latest trends are to limit phasing owed to compressed flow, and an encroaching PV. Its going to be fun few weeks. GO I'll enjoy my rainstorms. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Miser Posted January 16, 2019 Share Posted January 16, 2019 2 hours ago, Ginx snewx said: Brutal day Monday, let’s hope no one loses power. Before you comment Kev, think of the Elderly/ Single Moms with kids stuck in a home with no power. With these wind chills, yes it effects homes blowing the heat out. Let’s all hope for an all snow event as this with no hype is a particularly dangerous situation. 1 minute ago, Damage In Tolland said: ZR! Pump the brakes ice-fetish boy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
klw Posted January 16, 2019 Share Posted January 16, 2019 Well this would break my back: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 16, 2019 Share Posted January 16, 2019 1 minute ago, dryslot said: eek, That's not what some are going to want to see, 988mb of SE MA Even you and dendrite are getting sand blasted on that run. Sfc temps tossed as far as you can throw them though for SNE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 16, 2019 Share Posted January 16, 2019 Just now, CoastalWx said: Defintely more amped. That s/w dropping SE off the washington coastline really dove into the back of the s/w coming up from down south Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 16, 2019 Share Posted January 16, 2019 1 minute ago, Cold Miser said: Pump the brakes ice-fetish boy. Wrong person Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 16, 2019 Share Posted January 16, 2019 Just now, dryslot said: That s/w dropping SE off the washington coastline really dove into the back of the s/w coming up from down south Clowns say thats a perfect run for you discount GFS thermals Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 16, 2019 Share Posted January 16, 2019 Just now, ORH_wxman said: Even you and dendrite are getting sand blasted on that run. Sfc temps tossed as far as you can throw them though for SNE. Yeah, No way those cold temps are getting overrun at the surface. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Spanks45 Posted January 16, 2019 Share Posted January 16, 2019 50s for most of CT Sunday afternoon, one could probably toss those pretty far. lol goofus.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 16, 2019 Share Posted January 16, 2019 2 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: Even you and dendrite are getting sand blasted on that run. Sfc temps tossed as far as you can throw them though for SNE. 50’s up past ORH lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted January 16, 2019 Share Posted January 16, 2019 Gfs tickle NW? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted January 16, 2019 Share Posted January 16, 2019 Crusher for NNE is a lock, congrats up north guys and gals. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 16, 2019 Share Posted January 16, 2019 1 minute ago, Ginx snewx said: Clowns say thats a perfect run for you discount GFS thermals I hurt my arm tossing those thermals. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 16, 2019 Share Posted January 16, 2019 GGEM is almost identical to 00z...just a bit faster. But def not as amped at GFS. Funny how the models have traded places from a couple days ago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Miser Posted January 16, 2019 Share Posted January 16, 2019 Just now, Ginx snewx said: Wrong person Right person. I quoted Kevin who was expressing his excitement for the freezing rain. I was quoted your post as well to express to him the issues of the freezing rain scenario. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chrisrotary12 Posted January 16, 2019 Share Posted January 16, 2019 12z GFS did ramp back up the QPF to >2" if your into those sort of things. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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