ORH_wxman Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 On 1/17/2019 at 3:57 AM, CT Rain said: Tossing the low level thermals with the GFS but that would be a pretty nasty ice event down here. Expand That would be ridiculous I think down in that area. If we are able to torch the midlevels as much as the GFS says, then someone in SNE would get a monster ice storm. I'm still guessing it doesn't end up that warm aloft, but we gotta consider it for sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 CMC is a crushing...similar to euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 that's allot of liquid on the gfs and canadian Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 Sign me up... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MarkO Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 LOL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowgeek Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 On 1/17/2019 at 4:03 AM, weathafella said: Sign me up... Like the good old days.....when both Boston and Albany could cash in with a storm. . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxeyeNH Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 My weathebell kuchy map has lots of 30" plus areas here in NH. I can understand that from a bombing 968mb low that gets cutoff and sits in the GOM but these qpf totals of 2-3" inches just seem so overdone from a moving along system. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 On 1/17/2019 at 4:05 AM, snowgeek said: Like the good old days.....when both Boston and Albany could cash in with a storm. . Expand 1994 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 On 1/17/2019 at 3:59 AM, yoda said: 2 to 3 feet Expand congrats on 45K Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 On 1/17/2019 at 4:03 AM, MarkO said: LOL Expand Maybe I should head to Pit2..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 On 1/17/2019 at 4:07 AM, Bostonseminole said: congrats on 45K Expand Thanks Good luck up there... hope you guys are able to get a nice snowstorm out of this Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ma blizzard Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 prob the most absurd forecasted sounding post cold tuck I've ever seen .. this is KBED valid 18z Sun on the GFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 On 1/17/2019 at 3:56 AM, CT Rain said: damn what a QPF bomb Expand NAEFS was a slight increase in the strength of the IVT plume at 12z today, maybe a once every other year type event. EPS was definitely stronger, with the return interval more like 5 to 10 years. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 On 1/17/2019 at 4:09 AM, OceanStWx said: NAEFS was a slight increase in the strength of the IVT plume at 12z today, maybe a once every other year type event. EPS was definitely stronger, with the return interval more like 5 to 10 years. Expand The moisture plume coming from basically the Bay of Campeche gives me more confidence of higher QPF than usual. Not sure I am ready to buy 2-3" amounts north of the sfc front where convection will be less, but 1.5-2 might happen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WthrJunkyME Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 On 1/17/2019 at 4:08 AM, moneypitmike said: Maybe I should head to Pit2..... Expand Yep, I’d be giddy with just half of the 31” that map is giving me! Gimme a break, 31”. Pffft... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 On 1/17/2019 at 4:09 AM, OceanStWx said: NAEFS was a slight increase in the strength of the IVT plume at 12z today, maybe a once every other year type event. EPS was definitely stronger, with the return interval more like 5 to 10 years. Expand I'm guessing you already have some of this loaded in the grids? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The 4 Seasons Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 Is the UKMET out anywhere yet and if so, how is it? I don't see it updating on the UQAM site. When does it "normally" begin rolling out? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Morch Madness Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 On 1/17/2019 at 4:15 AM, The 4 Seasons said: Is the UKMET out anywhere yet and if so, how is it? I don't see it updating on the UQAM site. When does it "normally" begin rolling out? Expand MSLP maps come out around 11:45 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thunderblizzard Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 On 1/17/2019 at 4:15 AM, The 4 Seasons said: Is the UKMET out anywhere yet and if so, how is it? I don't see it updating on the UQAM site. When does it "normally" begin rolling out? Expand This is the best image that comes out before the normal maps at ~11:45 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 On 1/17/2019 at 4:19 AM, Thunderblizzard said: This is the best image that comes out before the normal maps at ~11:45 Expand That would support a monster snow threat for Cape and Islands Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NYCweatherNOW Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 On 1/17/2019 at 1:59 AM, Ginx snewx said: Drunk? I don't make snow maps Expand Did canadian show an all snow event for Boston. And do you and everyone else want to see my snow map Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 On 1/17/2019 at 4:28 AM, NYCweatherNOW said: Did canadian show an all snow event for Boston. And do you and everyone else want to see my snow map Expand Pretty much and if not only a brief taint. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Greg Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 Harvey Leonard going with an off shore storm track. "Colder solution storm" Doesn't believe the Arctic air can be moved. Heavy snow and sleet at times. Amount of sleet involved is based on final storm track. 11:00 PM NEWS CHANNEL 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 00z GFS shows multiple threats after this weekend, a big threat sometime after the 26th of JAN. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 A 10" spread...........lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 On 1/17/2019 at 4:31 AM, dryslot said: A 10" spread...........lol Expand That is normal at this time frame Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 On 1/17/2019 at 4:12 AM, ORH_wxman said: The moisture plume coming from basically the Bay of Campeche gives me more confidence of higher QPF than usual. Not sure I am ready to buy 2-3" amounts north of the sfc front where convection will be less, but 1.5-2 might happen. Expand If you look at a Wilks 2006 reliability diagram for QPF you'll see that all models tend to have a wet bias for QPF. They too often are too wet. I'm trying to find a specific North American diagram with recent stats, but no luck. For Europe the EPS is something like 80% of the forecasts for heavy QPF, it actually occurs about 50% of the time. I suspect North America would be no different in that regard. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 On 1/17/2019 at 4:31 AM, dryslot said: A 10" spread...........lol Expand Emphasis on the "+" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 17, 2019 Author Share Posted January 17, 2019 On 1/17/2019 at 2:40 AM, moneypitmike said: Thanks for the write-up, Ray. Do you have a separate accumulation band in the north (where you just show snow) or are they captured in the 8-14"? Good luck! Expand All 8-14" for now...first broad-brush. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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