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Winter Begins Jan 20th AWT


40/70 Benchmark

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10 minutes ago, tiger_deF said:

Hey everyone, I'm a weather enthusiast and just joined this forum, This storm looks to be characterized more by high QPF amounts versus deep pressures and wind.

Which areas do you think will receive the highest QPF entirely in the form of snow?

Somehow, it will be Powderfreak...he always finds a way...

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13 minutes ago, tiger_deF said:

Hey everyone, I'm a weather enthusiast and just joined this forum, This storm looks to be characterized more by high QPF amounts versus deep pressures and wind.

Which areas do you think will receive the highest QPF entirely in the form of snow?

And Hi :) Welcome aboard

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Just now, #NoPoles said:

I feel like there is going to be some bridge jumping

Everyone better hope this isn’t flipping back the other way.  I expected we would see things settle south for another couple of cycles before bouncing north.  This could go to shit in a hurry if this is the beginning of a push back the other way this far out 

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Just now, #NoPoles said:

I feel like there is going to be some bridge jumping

only in the 850-700mb layer, the 925mb layer there is quite the cold air present only warm to the canal.  A lot of freezing rain and sleet on the 00z NAM.  I might get some substantial snows if the NAM extrapolated after 84 hours with the second frontal wave developing, I think the 12z UKMET model showed this with the 990mb east of CHH, I think this was the second wave.

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12 minutes ago, tiger_deF said:

Hey everyone, I'm a weather enthusiast and just joined this forum, This storm looks to be characterized more by high QPF amounts versus deep pressures and wind.

Which areas do you think will receive the highest QPF entirely in the form of snow?

Too early to nail down totals, but gun to head and based on what I’m reading at this early juncture - I’d guess that the jackpot would be the  Catskills, Berks, Southern Greens and Whites (1 to 2 feet). Though the Catskills and Berks might mix with a bit of sleet. The mountains typically do much better than where the populous live.

-Jason

 

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28 minutes ago, dryslot said:

I'll say one thing, The radar won't look like shit on this one.

It's the NAM so the usual 84hr caveats apply, but I think you can kinda see where the big mid-level lift moves through our area into NNE on the QPF maps. Maybe we make hay with higher ratios during that time and then we pile on 10:1 on the back 9.

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2 minutes ago, dendrite said:

It's the NAM so the usual 84hr caveats apply, but I think you can kinda see where the big mid-level lift moves through our area into NNE on the QPF maps. Maybe we make hay with higher ratios during that time and then we pile on 10:1 on the back 9.

00z Nam had .8" qpf at hr 84, So its either 8" or 12.5" if we went 15:1 or some where in between

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1 minute ago, Typhoon Tip said:

 Anyway neither one of these models was phasing like the euro did it 0Z and 12 Z 

If the Euros gonna be right these solutions you're seeing tonight are going to be totally different ... so far

I hear what your saying Tip. I'm only looking for trends right now.

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