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Winter Begins Jan 20th AWT


40/70 Benchmark

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6 minutes ago, dendrite said:

Mom just texted asking how much snow and said my sister told her that a woman at her work heard 24”. I wonder if that lady reads this forum and saw one of Ginxy’s snow maps.

Haha. Or that Weather Channel map. Few coworkers asked me about the 24" too.

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3 minutes ago, dryslot said:

I'm thinking about the same depending on final track, Low side if its more NW, High side if we get another tic or so SE.

 

3 minutes ago, dendrite said:

I told my mom 8-14” for now. 

 

Sounds reasonable. Maybe I'll compromise and go with 8-16" when chatting with co-workers tomorrow. That's a good starting point at least, depending on how far the sleet line make it northward on models.

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Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said:

First Call:

https://easternmassweather.blogspot.com/2019/01/high-impact-winter-storm-on-sunday.html

Final at Live from GTG on Saturday.

I see blizzard potential with some n stream trends, but not ready to go there yet.

 

First Call.png

Nice map I wish you well. Seems early to pin down amounts. Everyone here is downplaying qpf, why? I haven't heard any scientific reasoning 

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2 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

Nice map I wish you well. Seems early to pin down amounts. Everyone here is downplaying qpf, why? I haven't heard any scientific reasoning 

1.50-2.00" of WCB QPF seems a bit excessive. Get those totals inside of 48hr and maybe I'll start buying it. Ditto that with the ratios. If we get consensus for good lift for a prolonged period in the DGZ then maybe I'll entertain something more than 12:1 for the event total. But in those euro 850-700mb max T in the profile maps Ray posted it even gets up to around -3C up here. So the mid-latter portion of the system will probably have lousier growth. We'll see over the next couple days though. Maybe this will be the exception to the rule.

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